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Research Issues

Research Issues. Why compare?. Better understand our own system See what other options are available Understand why certain choices were and are made Understand causation. Empirical vs. Theoretical. Types of statements in PoliSci. Empirical (fact) [IS]: Clinton won in 1996

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Research Issues

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  1. Research Issues

  2. Why compare? • Better understand our own system • See what other options are available • Understand why certain choices were and are made • Understand causation

  3. Empirical vs. Theoretical

  4. Types of statements in PoliSci • Empirical (fact) [IS]: Clinton won in 1996 • Normative (value) [GOOD]: Democracy is the best form of government • Theoretical (explanation) [WHY]: USA beat USSR BECAUSE of its economy

  5. 4 C’s of Political Analysis • Concepts • Comparison • Correlations • Causation

  6. PoliSci Methodologies • Case Study • Quantitative (Statistics) • Formal Modeling • Game Theory

  7. Avoiding descriptivism • A problem in case studies, especially for anthropology (see Clifford Geertz, The Slametan, a Javanese ritual [1964]) • Your study should apply broadly within your scope conditions • You should inform other possible studies • Structured-Functional Case Study

  8. Quantitative Issues • Sampling Errors – the sample is not reflective of the population due to bias in selection. Not all polls are scientific. • Non-response – response rates may vary • Non-attitudes – an attitude is reported to expedite the questioning • Degrees of freedom (n-1) • Margin of error

  9. Margin of Error • The margin of error is an estimate of a poll's variance in reported percentages if the same poll were taken multiple times. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one has that the poll's reported percentages are close to the "true" percentages, that is the percentages in the whole population. For 95% confidence,

  10. Game Theory: Prisoner’s Dilemma

  11. Variables • Independent (cause) • Dependent (effect) • Intervening • Spurious

  12. Conditions • Necessary – sine qua non: the event could not happen without this condition being met • Sufficient – if this condition is met, the event must occur

  13. Scientific Method • Four steps: 1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena. 2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation. 3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations. 4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments.

  14. One needs • Falsifiability • Prediction • Control • Replicability • Clear conceptual and operational definitions • To Address several other issues:

  15. Issues • Co-variation (do x and y just happen to correlate) • Plausible alternative hypotheses • Time-order relationships (What came first?)

  16. In Comparative another issue is: • Does the concept or term mean the same thing in all relevant cases? • Consider: • Human rights • Democracy • Liberalism • Political parties

  17. One should avoid • Tautologies – statements true by definition, a fact giving nothing new • Circular arguments • Straw men • Selection on the dependent variable • Excessive flexibility in definition

  18. Karl Popper on Falsifiability • It is easy to confirm or verify nearly every theory — if we look for confirmations. • Confirmations are significant only if they are the result of risky predictions; that is, if, unenlightened by the theory, we should have expected an event which was incompatible with the theory — an event which would have refuted the theory. • A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific. Irrefutability is not a virtue of a theory. • Every genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify or refute it. Theories that take greater "risks" are more testable, more exposed to refutation. • Confirming or corroborating evidence is only significant when it is the result of a genuine test of the theory; "genuine" in this case means that it comes out of a serious but unsuccessful attempt to falsify the theory.

  19. Experiments and Controls • How to do with real, living people? • How can we attempt this with states and nations?

  20. Political Science • The systematic study of Politics • Politics – focused on the role of power, its distribution and application • Power – the ability to make someone do something s/he otherwise would not • Coercive • Persuasive • Institutional authority (acquiescence) • Class

  21. Disaggregations of Power • Visibility • Manifest – overt with resistance and open conflict • Implicit – opposition does not rise up against overwhelming establishment power • Location • Dispersed – limited govt., resistant to rapid social change (Veto Points) • Concentrated – absolutism , social revolution • Source and Use • Intensive – increase of effort • Extensive - broaden the scope

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