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Exploring the UK Vaccination Programme: Balancing Risk and Reward

This document presents the terms of reference for a working party investigating the balance of risk and reward in the current UK vaccination programme. Led by Monica Cornall, Jan Sparks, Margaret Chan, and Anita Barker, the aim is to stimulate debate and encourage further studies using existing data rather than conducting new research. The party will analyze the monitoring of risk-reward trade-offs, evaluate epidemiological models related to vaccines like Polio and MMR, and discuss the roles of actuaries and other experts in this critical field.

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Exploring the UK Vaccination Programme: Balancing Risk and Reward

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  1. UK Vaccination Programme- Risk and Reward Working Party: Monica Cornall Jan Sparks Margaret Chan Anita Barker

  2. Terms of Reference “Our aim is to investigate, and hence stimulate informed debate and possible further studies, on the balance between risk and reward inherent in the current UK vaccination program from an independent statistically informed viewpoint. We do not aim to carry out any new investigations or studies but to interpret and assimilate existing data and studies. As part of our fact-finding we will try to discover whether any organisation currently monitors the trade-off between risk and reward, and what mathematical or statistical models are used.”

  3. Sources of Data ONS/PHLS Deaths DOH J C V I PHLS/CDSC Notifiable Diseases NHS Adverse Reactions HPE Fact Sheets MCA Yellow Cards Compensation payments DSS WHO NICE MRC

  4. Risk/ Reward Dilemmas • Herd Immunity (Individual vs Private Interest) • Success Breeds Dilemmas • Transfer of Risk • Between age groups • Social groupings • Causality and Difficulty of Proof of Adverse Reactions

  5. Case Study 1: Polio • History • An Epidemiological model • Current Risks vs Rewards

  6. Case Study 2: MMR • History • An Epidemiological Model • Current Risk vs Rewards • Causality

  7. Discussion • What can actuaries add? • What can actuaries learn? • Is there scope for further work? • Why is the trail so difficult to follow? • Is there a need for further independent informed scrutiny?

  8. Where do we go from here? • Other Vaccines? • Models? • Other Experts – medical, epidemiologists?

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