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Trends in Wind Energy Yield: Influence of Geostrophic Wind Speed and Climate Change

This study by Alexander Bakker examines the decreasing trend in wind energy yield from turbines in a changing climate. It analyzes geostrophic wind speed as a predictor and explores past trends through reanalysis and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The findings reveal that trends in wind yields are not solely due to climatological changes, and highlights the role of geostrophic wind speed and NAO as significant predictors for relative wind yields in the North Sea. The paper also investigates aspects of temporal dependency and the increasing discrepancies observed.

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Trends in Wind Energy Yield: Influence of Geostrophic Wind Speed and Climate Change

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  1. Wind energy in a changing climate Alexander Bakker KNMI bakker@knmi.nl ECAM 2 October 2009

  2. Decreasing trend wind yield (turbines)

  3. Contents • Geostrophic wind speed as predictor • Past trends (Reanalysis & NAO index)

  4. Offshore wind measurements

  5. Potential wind

  6. Wind turbines (power curve)

  7. Geostrophic wind speed • ERA40 2.5 x 2.5 1958-2001 • ERA Interim 1.5 x 1.5 1989-

  8. R (Windex,geostrophic wind) ERA Interim ERA40

  9. Windex and ERA interim geostrophic wind

  10. Windex and ERA40 geostrophic wind

  11. Trends geostrophic wind speed (m/s)/yr ERA40 ERA Interim

  12. P-value trends geostrophic wind speed ERA40 ERA Interim

  13. Temporal dependency?

  14. NAO index Jones PD, Jonsson T and Wheeler D (1997) Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland. Int. J. Climatol. 17, 1433-1450. 3

  15. Conclusions • Trends in wind yields are not caused by climatological trends • Geostrophic wind speed and NAO index are good predictors for “relative” wind yields in the North Sea • Is there temporal dependency (autocorrelation, persistence)?

  16. What causes the increasing difference?

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