Download
1 / 69
690 likes | 910 Vues
Nolin Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation 2006 Load Forecast. Prepared by: East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. Forecasting and Market Analysis Department June 2006. Blank Page. Table of Contents. Page Number. Introduction and Executive Summary 5 Narrative 16
E N D
Nolin Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation2006 Load Forecast Prepared by: East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. Forecasting and Market Analysis Department June 2006
Table of Contents Page Number • Introduction and Executive Summary 5 • Narrative 16 • Key Assumptions 42 • Methodology and Results 48 • Residential Forecast 53 • Small Commercial 58 • Large Commercial 60 • Other Forecast 62 • Peak Day Weather Scenarios 65 • RUS Form 341 68
IntroductionExecutive Summary Nolin Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation (Nolin RECC) located in Elizabethtown, Kentucky, is an electric distribution cooperative that serves members in nine counties. This load forecast report contains Nolin RECC’s long-range forecast of energy and peak demand. Nolin RECC and its power supplier, East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), worked jointly to prepare the load forecast. Factors considered in preparing the forecast include the national and local economy, population and housing trends, service area industrial development, electric price, household income, weather, and appliance efficiency changes. EKPC prepared a preliminary load forecast, which was reviewed by Nolin RECC for reasonability. Final projections reflect a rigorous analysis of historical data combined with the experience and judgment of the manager and staff of Nolin RECC. Key assumptions are reported beginning on page 42.
Executive Summary (continued) The load forecast is prepared biannually as part of the overall planning cycle at EKPC and Nolin RECC. Cooperation helps to ensure that the forecast meets both parties’ needs. Nolin RECC uses the forecast in developing two-year work plans, long-range work plans, and financial forecasts. EKPC uses the forecast in areas of generation planning, transmission planning, demand-side planning, marketing analysis, and financial forecasting. The complete load forecast for Nolin RECC is reported in Table 1-1. Residential and commercial sales, total purchases, winter and summer peak demands, and load factor are presented for the years 1990 through 2025.
Executive Summary (continued)Overall Results • Total sales are projected to grow by 2.6 percent a year for the period 2005-2025, compared to 3.0 percent which was projected in the 2004 load forecast for the period 2004-2024. Results shown in Table 1-2 and Figure 1-1. • Winter and summer peak demands for the same period indicate annual growth of 2.8 and 2.4 percent, respectively. Annual peaks shown in Figure 1-2. • Load factor is approximately 50% for the forecast period. See Figure 1-3.
NarrativeTerritory Nolin Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation, Kentucky 51 Hardin, with headquarters in Elizabethtown, Kentucky is located in north central Kentucky. It presently provides service for consumers in nine counties: Breckinridge, Bullitt, Grayson, Green, Hardin, Hart, Larue, Meade, and Taylor (see Figure 1-4). The north and central portion of the service area has experienced a reduced growth rate in the past three-year period. This reduced rate has ended. Growth rate should show a steady increase for the next two or three years, then level off with a moderate increase continuing. Growth is anticipated for residential, small and large commercial businesses. The remainder of the system, the south, west and east regions have experienced a steady growth pattern. This trend in residential growth in these areas is expected to continue. The south, west and east regions of the system are historically established agricultural areas and are expected to remain primarily agricultural. However, there has been an increase in residential construction in the past two to three years.
Narrative (continued)Counties Served Nolin RECC provides service to members in 9 counties. Figure 1-4
Narrative (continued) Elizabethtown is located forty miles south of Louisville, Kentucky at the intersections of Interstate 65, which is a north-south six-lane highway. The Bluegrass Parkway extends east to Lexington and the Western Kentucky Parkway extends westward to Henderson, Owensboro, Paducah and other population centers. A new four-lane highway from Elizabethtown to Hodgenville to the southeast has been completed and is now creating residential and industrial growth in the Larue County service area. These major highways intersecting in Elizabethtown have contributed to the growth in industrial and commercial loads in the form of motels, fast food restaurants, service stations and associated loads. These highways have made the Elizabethtown area highly desirable for residences and industry due to the ease of commuting to jobs in the Louisville area and to Fort Knox, which is just north of Radcliff on the north side of the system.
Narrative (continued) The Elizabethtown Airport has a 5000-foot runway, which is accommodating corporate jets, charter and private aircraft. The Airport is adjacent to the Elizabethtown Industrial Park of which Nolin will serve some 400 acres as it develops. Presently, Nolin is serving three industries within the park. Nolin will also serve most of the "bedroom" areas adjacent to the industrial park. In June 1972 the Kentucky General Assembly voted into law, rules setting boundary lines between all electric utilities in the state. The boundary maps were updated in 1984. These boundaries were agreed on by all the electric utilities and were filed with the Public Service Commission of Kentucky.
Narrative (continued)Commercial Loads Hardin County Schools - The Hardin County Board of Education opened a new elementary school (Meadowview) in Radcliff on Nolin's service in August 1987. The Board has constructed a new middle school (Bluegrass) in Nolin's territory and it opened in August 1990. A new high school (John Hardin) was completed in 2001. Another new middle school is planned to the south of Elizabethtown in the next 2-3 years but a permanent site has not been selected, however, preliminary site investigations have indicated that it will be located in Nolin's service area. This could possibly be a 1000 KVA load since the area is not served by natural gas. Lincoln Trail Elementary School has been upgraded from a small single-phase load to a 500-600 KW three phase load and is in operation. A new elementary school will be located on Ring Road across from First Federal Savings Bank in Nolin’s service territory, natural gas is available on the property. Unknown KVA load at this time. Commerce Park (Elizabethtown Area) - Commerce Park is a privately owned development attempting to attract interstate highway travelers. The Coca Cola Museum has been converted to the Elizabethtown Tourism and Convention Bureau, seven motels, and seven restaurants have been opened and are in full operation. Future load growth in this area is expected to continue with the addition of two more restaurants.
Narrative (continued)Industrial Parks Elizabethtown Industrial Park - AGC formally A. P. Technoglass, an Automotive glass manufacturing plant, has been constructed in the Industrial Park and is served by Nolin (20+ MW Load), and is in full production. This is a $100,000,000 plant owned by Asahi Glass Ltd. of Japan. It employs approximately 600 employees. Two new industrial park sites are now ready for development. The T.J. Patterson Industrial Park has added an additional 529 acres adjacent to the existing Hughes Center of Commerce in Elizabethtown. Nolin will serve approximately 25% of this location. In Radcliff, the MillPond Industrial Park has 100+ acres available – this park is 100% served by Nolin. The first tenant, U.S. Calvary has announced plans to build a 300,000 sq. ft. warehouse on site with plans to open 2007. There is a very large (20 – 40 MW) Japanese prospect looking at property in the park; they plan to announce later this summer where they plan to locate. A 1551-acre site in Glendale has been purchased by the State Economic Development Cabinet. This site hopes to attract a major automotive manufacturer. Nolin should serve approximately 90 percent of the residential demand created by the new jobs generated in this area. Each 100 industrial jobs create 64 service jobs according to the University of Louisville Department of Urban Studies.
Narrative (continued) Larue County Industrial Park - Hodgenville - This 100 acre fully developed park is located near Hodgenville on the new Lincoln Parkway. Fifty percent of this park is served by Nolin. A Japanese Auto Parts Manufacturer has purchased the last remaining site and is in full operation. The Industrial Foundation is actively pursuing new land to expand the park. Small Commercial - This classification consists of convenience type food markets: Minute Mart, Nite Owl, etc., service stations, health clubs, banks, savings and loan offices and medical centers. This group also includes various shops located in malls. The number of small commercial users in the last few years has increased above the historical trend due to the development of malls brought on by population increases in the urban areas and also by cities extending their boundaries through annexation, providing city services which help to increase population in these areas. Elizabethtown and Radcliff city limits now meet on the north side of Elizabethtown.
Narrative (continued)Roads and Highways A new four-lane highway in the northern part of the system from Radcliff to Lebanon Junction, connecting with Interstate 65 is now complete. This road will open up a more desirable thoroughfare for traveling from Radcliff and Fort Knox to Louisville. This should increase new residential consumers and some commercial services, as it will make it easier to commute to jobs in the Louisville area. U.S. Highway 62 has been widened to four lanes from Elizabethtown to the west of Cecilia Junction. The highway is the major artery for traveling to the Elizabethtown Industrial Park. It has been suggested that the reason Toyota and Isuzu did not select Elizabethtown for their plant location was the lack of a four-lane highway to and from the park. The road now serves AGC formally A. P. Technoglass and the rest of the park.
Narrative (continued) The City of Elizabethtown has completed Ring Road, a four-lane road around the north side of the City from U.S. 62 East of Elizabethtown to U.S. 62 West of Elizabethtown. Future plans also extend the four lanes from U.S. 62 (Leitchfield Road) South to Western Kentucky Parkway. Approximately three miles of Ring Road is zoned commercial, two miles residential and two miles are through the Industrial Park. This road is already attracting residential subdivisions, apartment complexes, small commercial businesses and one industrial load for Nolin. Nolin serves approximately 85 percent of the entire length of the road. We anticipate fast growth in the commercial and residential areas of the road. A Wal-Mart superstore and a Lowe’s superstore were opened in late 1995. These stores have a total load of approximately 2700 KVA.
Narrative (continued)Residential Class The Residential Class is made up of three types of users: Minimum/Low Users such as: well pumps, barns, electric fences, security lights, vacant but connected houses, and occupied but low consumption homes that use other than electric heat sources and basically use only electric lighting. There are no recreational areas or resorts in the coverage area so seasonal loads are almost non-existent. In January 2005 the average number of members with minimum bills was 766. In January 2006 the average number of members with minimum bills was 751. Nolin does not have a minimum tariff filed for kWh, but does have a $5.00 customer charge. Average Users in the Residential Class are made up of: non-electrically heated homes; low kWh consumption homes with air-to-air heat pumps, and ground source heat pumps, super insulation, and "Energy-Wise" owners. Others include those who use some supplemental heat sources such as wood burning stoves, farms and farm buildings. For 2005, the average monthly residential usage was 1349 kWh.
Narrative (continued)Residential Class High Users - Most, but not all high kWh users are all-electric houses. Usage depends on many factors including: size of house, amount of insulation, type of heating system and energy awareness of the owner. Other high users include: A. Farms : Dairy, hog, chicken, cattle feeding, grain drying and workshops. B. Mobile Homes and Double Wide Mobile Homes : Often these high users are poorly insulated, not underpinned and use high kWh consuming electric furnaces. Most of the consumers in mobile homes are not energy aware and due to the nature of the construction of the mobile home use more electricity than similar sized stick built homes. Hardin County has a very high number of mobile home parks especially in the Fort Knox-Radcliff-Elizabethtown area near the military base. C. Grain Bins : Starting in 1974 Electric Grain Drying became very poplar. Many new installations were added as all-electric or large service entrances for gas-fired dryers were put into service. This type of service has a tendency to distort usage patterns due to the fact the grain bin is only used October through December and only intermittently in the spring months. Some months of the year will produce only a minimum bill, but when in use consumption of 10,000 kWh in one month would not be unusual. Although new grain bin operations have not come on line as rapidly recently, there are still a few each year.
Narrative (continued) Energy consuming equipment used by the different types of residential users are as follows: 1. Minimum/Low Users - It is safe to say that the minimum user will not use energy using equipment such as: an electric heater, range, water heater or air conditioner. A low use consumer could have a small electric water heater and may have an electric range. More than likely neither of these is present and only lighting, refrigeration, etc., would be used. 2. Average Users - An average consumer uses 1349 kWh per month (2005 average residential consumer) and will have an electric range, electric water heater, and probably one or two window air conditioners. No electric heat would be used unless a heat pump with super insulated house design and supplemental wood or other heat were also used. 3. High Users - A high use consumer would usually have a large all-electric home or a mobile home with electric heating, central air conditioning, water heating and range. This consumer would be very energy aware in his habits, house construction and insulation. Factors contributing to high use include more heated area, less conservation awareness, less insulation and larger families.
Narrative (continued) Different types of heating equipment also affect the amount of kWh used. Some of the types used and the approximate efficiency of each are: ceiling cable, wall heaters, baseboard - (100 percent efficiency); heat pump - (125-150 percent efficiency); ground source heat pump - (200-300 percent efficiency). The average heat pump has 15 kW of supplemental electric strip heaters. The average ground source system has 7.5 to 10 kW of strip heaters. Air conditioners: both central "whole house" units, and window units, and free-standing ranges, cooktops, conventional and microwave ovens are also common.
Narrative (continued)End-Use Survey Results An End-Use Survey was completed in 2005 by East Kentucky Power Cooperative. The survey was sent to a random selected sample of our members as well as members of the other 16 coops of the power supplier. Some the observations from the survey include: 1. Electric 2. Of 3. Of those surveyed, 8 percent have a wood/coal stove for heating. 4. Gas is used by 30 percent as their main heating method. 5. Electric clothes dryers are present in 97 percent of the homes; 96 percent have automatic clothes washers; 6. Electric ranges and microwave ovens are present in 92 and 95 percent of the households, respectively. 7. Frost-free refrigerators are present in 95 percent of households, while 68 percent have automatic dishwashers. 8. Of the users, 67 percent of all residences have a home computer.
Narrative (continued) Natural gas is supplied to the two largest urban areas served by Nolin RECC by Texas Gas Transmission (TGT) in Elizabethtown and Louisville Gas & Electric (LG&E) in Radcliff. Currently TGT is allowing all new consumers within and outside the city limits of Elizabethtown to be connected, and new gas mains are being run to both new and existing subdivisions. Several miles of new gas line were built from 2001 to 2003. In 2001, with a customer base of 8,169, the city of Elizabethtown installed 117 new gas taps, 3,970 feet of new service line, and 8,148 feet of new main line. In 2002, 112 new gas taps, 3,318 feet of new service line, and 1,987 feet of new main line were installed and the customer base increased to 8,281 customers. Customer base increased again in 2003 with 8,378 customers. Also in 2003, 97 new gas taps, 3,982 feet of new service line, and 19,320 feet of new main line were installed. According to city officials, additional gas lines will be installed in the future as growth and demand dictate. LG&E is allowing unlimited connections anywhere in their service area. It looks as though even with the increase in gas prices, the demand for natural gas is still high. Marketing for both natural gas and propane is very aggressive in the service area.
Narrative (continued) Use of wood as a supplementary heat source by means of both wood burning stoves and fireplaces has decreased in the last few years. The end-use survey shows that 14 percent of residences have some provision for use of wood as a contributing heat source. Under optimum conditions, as much as 20 percent of winter energy consumption for an individual residence might be attributed to wood heat. Even then, however, only one day of non-use of wood heat during severe weather places the full demand of the electric heat on the system. Steadily increasing retail prices of wood would tend to discourage its long term use. Even smaller homes which come on service with wood as primary heat sources will have electrical entrances of sufficient size to accommodate electric heat if it should be desired. Homes destroyed by fire, attributed to wood burning, has tripled in the past few years. Insurance rates are increasing or coverage refused if wood heating equipment is improperly installed in homes.
Narrative (continued) Exotic sources of energy such as solar, including passive solar, wind, etc., have been utilized in a very limited manner in this coverage area. Due to high initial fixed costs and questionable performance, these supplemental sources are not assumed to have any noticeable effect within the next 10 years. Nolin has had no request for cogeneration from anyone. Nolin has been instrumental in encouraging members to install approximately 530 ground coupled heating systems in homes throughout the service area, with 27 of those system being installed from 2004 to 2005. These systems have become the comfort system of choice for most custom built homes today. Air-to-Air Heat Pumps have been promoted to members who desire Central Air Conditioning and use a fossil fuel such as gas or oil as a back up system.
Narrative (continued)Terrain Nolin Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation is located in Elizabethtown, Hardin County, Kentucky. It serves rural counties of Hardin and Larue all within the North Central Region of Kentucky. Flood plains of the Ohio, Salt, and Rolling Fork Rivers extend along the northern and eastern boundaries of Hardin County. The Rolling Fork River flood plain also lies along the northeastern boundary of Larue County. In the remainder of the two-county area the streams are entrenched to a moderate depth and have narrow flood plains. The topography is predominantly undulating to rolling uplands. A large area of intermittent karst topography extends south from Radcliff in northern Hardin County through Franklin Cross Roads, White Mills and Sonora to the Hart County line. This area of karst topography also includes the west central and southwestern parts of Larue County. The landscape in these karst areas is dotted with sink like depressions. Depressions also occur in some other places where the underlying rock is limestone. Much of the development in Hardin County has taken place near the Radcliff and Elizabethtown urban areas, while Larue County has developed generally. The Radcliff service area is impacted by the immediate vicinity of Fort Knox and serves as its bedroom to a large degree.
Narrative (continued)Soils Approximately 65 percent of the soils in Hardin County and 83 percent in Larue County are currently in farms. Hardin County has approximately 2150 farms of 118 acres each, Larue County 1220 farms of 113 acres each, according to the Bureau of Census. The remaining lands are wooded areas, or make up the urban centers. Soil associations in Nolin's service area are as detailed in this section. Soil Associations of Hardin County 1. Frondorf-Sadler-Ramsey Association - Nearly level to moderately steep, moderately well drained and well drained, deep and moderately deep soils on broad ridge tops and upper side slopes; and shallow somewhat excessively drained, steep soils on hillsides. 2. Crider-Pembroke-Cumberland Association - Gentle sloping to moderately steep, deep, well drained soils on karst uplands. 3. Caneyville-Hagerstown Association - Moderately deep and deep, well drained moderately steep to gentle sloping soils and Rock outcrop on karst uplands. 4. Sonora-Gatton-Riney Association - Deep gently sloping and sloping, well drained and moderately well drained soils on narrow to moderately broad ridges and side slopes; and deep, well drained soils on narrow ridges and hillsides.
Narrative (continued)Soils 5. Crider-Vertrees-Nicholson Association - Nearly level to sloping, deep, well drained and moderately well drained soils on broad ridges and side slopes; and deep well drained, sloping to steep soils and narrow ridges and hillsides. 6. Garmon-Caneyville-Lenberg Association - Very steep to moderately steep, moderately deep, well drained soils on hillsides, narrow ridges, and foot slopes. 7. Lawrence-Nolin-Otwell Association - Nearly level and gently sloping, deep, somewhat poorly drained to well drained, alluvial soils on stream terraces and flood plains. 8. McGary-Markland-Nolin Association - Nearly level and sloping, deep, somewhat poorly drained and well drained soils on broad stream terraces and narrow flood plains. Soil Associations in Larue County 1. Riney-Waynesboro Association - Sloping to steep, deep, well drained soils on narrow ridges and hillsides. 2. Crider-Pembroke-Cumberland Association - Gently sloping to moderately steep, deep, well drained soils on karst uplands.
Narrative (continued)Soils 3. Caneyville-Hagerstown Association - Moderately deep and deep, well drained, moderately steep to gently sloping soils and Rock outcrop on karst uplands. 4. Sonora-Gatton-Riney Association - Deep gently sloping and sloping, well drained and moderately well drained soils on narrow to moderately broad ridges and side slopes; and deep, well drained soils on narrow ridges and hillsides. 5. Crider-Vertrees-Nicholson Association - Nearly level to sloping, deep, well drained and moderately well drained soils on broad ridges and side slopes; and deep well drained, sloping to steep soils on narrow ridges and hillsides. 6. Garmon-Caneyville-Lenberg Association - Very steep, steep and moderately steep, moderately deep, well drained soils on hillsides, narrow ridges, and foot slopes. 7. Lawrence-Nolin-Otwell Association - Nearly level and gently sloping, deep, somewhat poorly drained to well drained, alluvial soils on stream terraces and flood plains.
Narrative (continued)Waterways The service area drains its surface water into the Rough, Salt and Nolin Rivers or their tributaries. The following table lists major streams in each watershed. ROUGH RIVERSALT RIVERNOLIN RIVER Meeting Creek Otter Creek Valley Creek Linders Creek Rolling Fork E. Rhudes Creek Cedar Creek South Fork Clear Creek North Fork Youngers Creek McDougall The service area includes some of Rough River Reservoir.
Narrative (continued)Climate In Hardin and Larue Counties summers are hot in the valleys and slightly cooler in the hills; winters are moderately cold. Rain is fairly heavy throughout the year and heaviest in winter. Snow falls nearly every winter, but the snow cover usually lasts only a few days. In winter the average temperature is 30 degrees F and the average daily minimum is 27 degrees. The lowest recorded temperature of -32 degrees occurred in western Hardin County in January 1994. In summer the average temperature is 76 degrees and the average daily maximum is 81.9 degrees. The highest temperature recorded was 106 degrees in July 1999. Of the total annual precipitation 24 inches, or 51 percent, generally falls during the period April through September. Thunderstorms number about 45 each year, 22 of which occur in summer. The average seasonal snowfall is 14.6 inches. On the average, 5 days have at least 1 inch of snow on the ground, but the number of days varies greatly from year to year.
Narrative (continued)Climate The average relative humidity in mid-afternoon is about 60 percent. Humidity is higher at night in all seasons, and the average at dawn is about 80 percent. Possible sunshine is 67 percent in summer and 43 percent in winter. The prevailing wind is from the south, southwest. Average wind speed is highest, 10 miles per hour, in March. An analysis was made of the Heating Degree Days (HDD) and Cooling Degree Days (CDD) for the Louisville, KY reporting station. This analysis indicates that in the heating seasons between 1991 and 2003, four years had HDD above the normal of 4352 and nine years were below the normal. The CDD analysis between 1991 and 2003 indicates eight years above the normal of 1443 and five years below the normal. This analysis indicates the weather sensitivity of this system. This sensitivity has been taken into consideration in our projections with all projections made to reflect normal weather conditions. However, variations due to unusual weather conditions can be experienced and the system must be designed for these conditions.
Narrative (continued)Nolin RECC MembersDemographic Information • There is an average of 2.43 people per household. • 52% of all homes are headed by someone age 55 or greater. • 22% of homes have farm operations, with beef cattle being most popular. • 27% of all homes served are less than 10 years old.
Key AssumptionsPower Cost and Rates • EKPC’s wholesale power cost forecast used in this load forecast comes from the following report: “Twenty-Year Financial Forecast, Equity Development Plan, 2006-2025”, dated January 2006.
Key Assumptions(continued)Economic EKPC’s source for economic forecasts is DRI-WEFA.
Key Assumptions (continued)Share of Regional Homes Served Nolin RECC’s market share will steadily increase for the forecast period. See Figure 1-5 below.
Key Assumptions (continued)Household IncomeMembers’ Greatest Sources Figure 1-6
Key Assumptions (continued)Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends East South Central Region Figure 1-7 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Efficiency Trend Update, 2005
Key Assumptions (continued)Weather • Weather data is from the Louisville weather station. • Normal weather, a 30-year average of historical temperatures, is assumed for the forecast years.
Methodology and ResultsIntroduction This section briefly describes the methodology used to develop the load forecast and presents results in tabular and graphical form for residential and commercial classifications. Table 1-3 through Table 1-5 shows historical data for Nolin RECC as reported on RUS Form 736 and RUS Form 5. A preliminary forecast is prepared during the first quarter depending on when Nolin RECC experiences its winter peak. The first step is modeling the regional economy. Population, income, and employment are among the areas analyzed. The regional model results are used in combination with the historical billing information, appliance saturation data, appliance efficiency data, and weather data to develop the long range forecast.
