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Scale of Forced Displacement Caused by Natural Disasters in 2008: A Systematic Study

This study explores the scale of forced displacement caused by natural disasters in 2008 and offers a methodology for future systematic monitoring. It identifies and researches 221 disasters, finding that 36 million people were newly displaced, with 20 million being displaced by climate-related disasters. The study has some limitations, but the EM-DAT database used provides comprehensive and up-to-date information. Recommendations for future improvements are suggested.

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Scale of Forced Displacement Caused by Natural Disasters in 2008: A Systematic Study

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  1. Aims: The study had two main aims:a) attempt to explore the scale of forced displacement caused by natural disasters in 2008 in a systematic way, including a break-down by hazards that are likely to be affected by climate change.b) offer a methodology for future systematic monitoring based on existing databases. 

  2. Methodology:1. EM-DAT was the point of departure for the systematized search: all meteorological, hydrological, climatological (except drought) and geophysical disasters that occurred in 2008 were identified in the EM-DAT data set.2. Secondly, a set of filters was applied to decide which disasters to include in the dataset. This included consultation of other sources.Finally, for these 221 disasters, we drilled in through a variety of other sources, including local sources, to try and find out a figure for displacement.3. The 221 disasters identified were individually researched against a range of other datasets, media, UN, humanitarian and governmental sources.

  3. Results: The search showed that 36 million people were newly displaced by disasters in 2008. 20 million were displaced by climate-related disasters.

  4. Caveats on IDMC/OCHA study: 1. The study does not draw on local or on-the-ground monitoring.  Therefore, it has low resolution.2. The results only show the peak of displacement.  Follow-up figures tracing returns, duration of displacement, resettlement, are not available at the local level.3. The results are only for 2008.  No generalizations, extrapolations, or predictions for other years can be made.

  5. Weaknesses: It does not track developments after the peak of the crisis.It does not include displacement among the categories of people affected by disasters.There is no possibility to follow the historical progression of the disaster or its victims, that is, no way of knowing how manypeople may have been displaced in earlier reports – onlythe latest one

  6. Strengths of EM-DAT as primary database: Its systematisation and comprehensiveness:  If a disaster happened (with ten or more people reported killed; a hundred or more people reported affected; a state ofemergency was declared; a call for international assistance made), it is in EM-DAT.Its global scope: It receives data from a variety of global, regional andlocal sources and then decides on the most authoritativeestimate to use, according to set criteria.Its conceptual clarity: It haslogically-described Explanatory Notes on Guidance, Glossary,Criteria and Definitions.  Our study followed EM-DAT’s definitions and concepts.Its actualization cycle:  It checksinformation from sources and updates information everythree months, so the data can be considered accurate andup-to-date, therefore authoritative.

  7. Future steps and improvements: 1. Explore possibilities of integrating displacement data into EM-DAT in the future, as more systematic data is collected and compiled. 2. Ensure access to all reports, and not just the latest which supersedes former ones. 3. As a conflict displacement monitoring agency, IDMC is exploring future options in relation to displacement caused by disaster.4. As a research institute within a humanitarian agency, IDMC could use EM-DAT’s data as a point of departure in work to describe patterns of displacement focusing on issues of duration, durable solutions, and protection.

  8. Link to study: http://www.internal-displacement.orgLook under publicationsvance.culbert@ny.nrc.no

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