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Impact of national circumstances on policy-making process &

Impact of national circumstances on policy-making process & Key drivers underlying emission trends in Belgium Etienne Hannon Federal DG Environment Belgium. Workshop on the preparation of the fourth national communications by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention

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Impact of national circumstances on policy-making process &

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  1. Impact of national circumstances on policy-making process & Key drivers underlying emission trends in Belgium Etienne HannonFederal DG Environment Belgium Workshop on the preparation of the fourth national communications by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention 30 September - 1 October 2004, Dublin, Ireland

  2. Flemish region Flemish community Walloon region French community Brussels- Capital region German community Belgian federal structure • 1 Federal State • 3 Communities • 3 Regions equal from the legal point of view but powers and responsibilities for different fields

  3. Overview of competences

  4. The challenge of climate policy • Climate policy = complex issue: energy, transport, fiscality, agriculture, waste, … • Belgian federal structure adds extra dimension to complexity: • Federal and regional competencies in most cc-related policy domains • Federal and regional levels are sovereign regarding their competences => Need for extensive coordination

  5. Cooperation agreement for climate policy • Parties : Federal State, Flemish region, Walloon region, Brussels-Capital region • Main objective : reduce GHG emissions, as determined by KP and decision 2002/358/EC (EU burden sharing) (-7.5%) • Specific objectives : • implementation and follow-up of the National Climate Plan • ensure compliance with reporting obligations (UNFCCC, KP & Mechanism for monitoring EC GHG emissions (decision 280/2004/EC)

  6. Cooperation agreement for climate policy • Executive body : National Climate Commission • Provisions related to reporting : • to make sure that methodologies, procedures, data analysis, projections used by the Parties to the agreement are compatible and, if possible, harmonised • Regions are committed to deliver yearly to the NCC a report containing the relevant information allowing the federal government to report data in accordance with the UNFCCC guidelines, and decision 280/2004/EC

  7. Fl. Wa. Belgian Assigned Amount under K.P. Br. National Burden Sharing agreement • Regions are assigned a target • Regions are each responsable for closing the difference between emissions and Assigned Amount on their territory, through:  reducing their emissions  using flexibility mechanisms

  8. National Burden Sharing agreement • Regional Assigned Amounts under the burden sharing • Walloon Region: 1990 emissions minus 7,5 % • Flemish Region: 1990 emissions minus 5,2 % • Brussels Capital Region: 1990 emissions plus 3,475 % • Total exceeds Belgian Assigned Amount under the Kyoto Protocol • Federal Government will cover the difference through use of the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms • 2,46 Mton CO2-eq/yr.in 2008-2012 • Financed by 25 M€/yr. Kyoto Fund (operational since 2003)

  9. Sectoral contributions: Greenhouse gas emission in Belgium (2002) Total GHG emissions = 150.3 Mt CO2 eq CO2 emissions = 84.2% of total emissions

  10. Belgian emission trends (1990-2002)

  11. In-depth review of the 3rd Nat. Com. • “The review team [..] noted the following trends: a substantial increase in the emissions from transport, an increase in the “other” emissions [..]” • “The emission trends are presented well in the NC3 but not all factors leading to these trends are clearly explained.” • [..] no data to support explanations [that freight transport by road grew faster than GDP] were available at the time of the review; [..]. The review team encouraged Belgian experts to continue studies in this area” • “The review team identified some areas for further improvement: identification of key drivers for emissions growth” • “The Belgian NC3 is, in general, in compliance with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines”

  12. How to improve the reporting of information on key drivers ? • Solution = development of indicators • Criteria for the selection of indicators: • clear definition & common understanding • be policy relevant • soundly founded • transparent (well documented and of known quality) • comparable • easily available (cf. data & resource demand)

  13. Indicators : developments within the EU • European Energy Agency : « core set of indicators » • 37 indicators on 11 topics, among which energy (5) & CC (4) • Basis for EEA reports (« Environment signals ») • Eurostat : « structural indicators » on environment • 15 indicators, based on latest national statistics, available on the web • Mechanism for monitoring EC GHG emissions (decision 280/2004/EC) • 15 (+13) indicators to be reported annually (CO2 intensities) • ODYSSEE-SAVE European project on energy efficiency indicators • Objective: to review national achievements in energy efficiency and CO2 emissions at a sectoral level • Network of 15 national Agencies • Products : common database on energy efficiency indicators, workshops, annual reports

  14. Energy intensity of GDP toe / M EUR 95 (1990 = 100) before climate correction after climate correction Source : ECONOTEC (The ODYSSEE Project Results for Belgium)

  15. value added (industry, tertiary) private consumption (households) GDP (transport) Final energy intensity by sector * (1990 = 100) industry transport tertiary residential * Final energy use (toe) / activity variable (M EUR 95) Source : ECONOTEC (The ODYSSEE Project Results for Belgium)

  16. Energy intensity : a good proxy for energy efficiency ?  Not appropriate to identify and assess the contributions of the main factors responsible for the changes in energy consumption Energy (CO2) intensity : • consumption (CO2 emissions) / GDP (or value added) • « economic approach » • easily available but encompass other effects than energy efficiency (structure)

  17. Structural effect = Contributions to changes in energy intensities Evolution of the energy intensity can be expressed as the sum of two different contributions: • structural effect: effect of a change in the structure of the consumption sector e.g. shift of industrial output from energy intensive industries to less energy intensive industries • unit consumption effect: change in consumption per unit of activity (proxy for the energy efficiency) Unit consumption effect = EIt - EI0 - SEt

  18. Key drivers of the energy consumption in road transport (passenger) (% of the consumption in 1990) Source : NIS, ODYSSEE (calculations by ECONOTEC)

  19. Key drivers of the energy consumption in road transport (freight)* (% of the consumption in 1990) * Wallonia Source : NIS, ODYSSEE (calculations by ECONOTEC)

  20. Conclusions • Institutional complexity is not an obstacle to the implementation of climate policies or the compliance with reporting obligations but need for extensive cooperation and institutional arrangements • Analysis of key drivers of emission trends allows for identifying problems, highlighting good practices and tuning PAMs • Sets of widely used indicators are currently available, which allow for a thorough analysis of key drivers

  21. Thank you !

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