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IOM2016

The effects of targeted reductions of patrol dosage on crime victimisation and costs in night time economy hotspots: A Phase 1 Trial – Operation Reddleman. IOM2016. Chief Inspector Chris Gibson. Research questions.

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IOM2016

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  1. The effects of targeted reductions of patrol dosage on crime victimisation and costs in night time economy hotspots: A Phase 1 Trial – Operation Reddleman. IOM2016 Chief Inspector Chris Gibson

  2. Research questions • Can night time economy patrol dosage be reduced by switching from a ‘flooded’ random patrol strategy to a targeted hot spots patrol, without adverse impacts on crime? • Will the targeted patrol strategy reduce costs of policing night time economy hot spots? • Can this hot spots study be implemented with enough precision to deliver targeted dosage levels?

  3. Hotspot Research & Theory • Definition of a hot spot • Effective dosage for deterrence • Rational choice theory • Routine activities theory

  4. Definition of a hot spot • Sherman et al (1989, p31) -“a fixed physical environment that can be seen completely and simultaneously, at least on its surface, by ones naked eye”. • Weisburd & Braga (2006) – micro places • Sherman et al (2014) – line of sight

  5. City Plan Hot Spots

  6. Hot Spot 2

  7. Effective dosage for deterrence • Sherman (1990) – Police crackdowns “intermittent, unpredictable crackdowns make risks of apprehension far more uncertain than could any system of fixed police priorities” (1990, p3). • Koper (1995) – the ‘Koper curve’ “patrols appear to be most effective when they are 13 to 15 minutes long. After 15 minutes, the benefits of increasing duration decline”. • Goddard (2013) – PSNI experiment

  8. Rational Choice Theory • Cornish & Clarke (1986) • Increase the effort needed by the offender to commit the offence • Increase the risk of detection • Reduce the reward gained from the crime • Reduce the provocation that may surround the crime • Remove any excuse the offender may use to justify their actions

  9. Routine Activities Theory • Cohen & Felson (1979) “Criminal acts require convergence in space and time of likely offenders, suitable targets and the absence of capable guardians against crime”(Cohen & Felson, 1979, p588).

  10. Control Hot Spots Research design and methods Treatment Hot Spots Liverpool City Centre - Innovative hot spot approach to policing • 6 week trial – Sat/ Sun 0000-0400hrs • 5 paired groups (5 treatment/ 5 control) • 12-15 min dosage vs. random patrolling • Approx. 450 officers briefed • Tactical Command • Live time tracking via Airwave radios • Implementation plan delivered

  11. NTE Crime types • Violence against the person - • Public Order - • Rape & Other Sexual Offences • Robbery Personal • Drugs Possession and Use • Possession of Weapons • Theft Person • Theft Other • A.S.B.

  12. Live time tracking via Airwave GPS

  13. Randomised Control Trial - Control and Treatment Areas

  14. Volumes of crime during the Op Reddleman experimental 6 week period23/4/16 - 29/05/16 for treatment and control areas excluding officer generated crime Low numbers but no difference!

  15. Concert Square and Temple Court – a study within a study! Key: Control Hotspot Treatment Hotspot

  16. Patrol Coverage via GPS Pings (1 or more officer) Average patrol officer coverage for Treatment Areas (Reddleman officers) Average patrol officer coverage for Control Areas

  17. Cost benefit analysis – Treatment Vs. Control Concert Square Vs. Temple court 78% more cost effective

  18. Crime Harm Index (CHI) • Sherman et al (2014) • Rather than focusing on unit volume it reflects a measurement of the potential harm caused to victims by “multiplying the crime by the number of days in prison that crime would attract”, (Sherman, Neyroud & Neyroud, 2014, p2).

  19. Summary of Treatment and Control Area CHI scores

  20. CHI score (Operation Reddlemanperiod vs. 2015 comparative period)

  21. Next steps……. • Review current force Hot Spot analysis - develop an evidenced based targeting, testing and tracking policy • Review current City plan – redeploy scarce resource to community T.H &R • Develop ‘tracking capability’ • Share Reddleman research results/ findings

  22. Thank you Chief Inspector Chris Gibson Email: christopher.m.gibson@merseyside.pnn.police.uk Twitter: MerpolEBP

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