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An Economic Forecast in Uncertain Times Orlando, FL May 22nd, 2014

An Economic Forecast in Uncertain Times Orlando, FL May 22nd, 2014. U.S. Forecast. Policy Uncertainty Still Hangs Over the Economy Health Care Reform Impact on labor market Delayed mandates Dodd-Frank Financial Regulatory Reform Impact on credit flows & financial sector 45.7% (128)

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An Economic Forecast in Uncertain Times Orlando, FL May 22nd, 2014

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  1. An Economic Forecast in Uncertain Times Orlando, FL May 22nd, 2014

  2. U.S. Forecast Policy Uncertainty Still Hangs Over the Economy Health Care Reform Impact on labor market Delayed mandates Dodd-Frank Financial Regulatory Reform Impact on credit flows & financial sector 45.7% (128) Fiscal “Cliff” Sequester, shutdown/debt ceiling… Monetary Policy

  3. U.S. Forecast The economic impact of economic policy uncertainty Statistical analysis shows that higher policy uncertainty causes: Lower private investment Lower industrial production Much lower employment

  4. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

  5. U.S. Forecast

  6. U.S. Forecast

  7. U.S. Forecast

  8. U.S. Forecast

  9. U.S. Forecast

  10. U.S. Forecast

  11. U.S. Forecast

  12. U.S. Forecast

  13. U.S. Forecast Sky Mall™ Policy: An Expensive Policy that Fails to Achieve its Desired Outcome

  14. U.S. Forecast

  15. U.S. Forecast

  16. U.S. Forecast

  17. U.S. Forecast Sky Mall™ Policies: T.A.R.P. Foreclosure Prevention Act 2008 ARRA of 2009 Shovel ready projects Making work pay tax breaks Affordable Care Act Dodd-Frank HIRE Act 2010

  18. U.S. Forecast Lost housing wealth Weak labor market recovery Both have weighed on consumers “Mini age of austerity”

  19. U.S. Household Wealth (Trillions of $)

  20. U.S. Economic Outlook

  21. U.S. Forecast • Monetary Policy • The job of the Federal Reserve is to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going • William McChesney Martin • Former Fed Chairman

  22. FloridaHousing Market Housing market recovery continues to unfold Double-digit price appreciation High level of investor activity Housing finance still problematic Will momentum be maintained?

  23. FloridaHousing Market

  24. FloridaHousing Market

  25. Florida Housing Market

  26. Florida Housing Market Investors are still active in Florida residential real estate Evidenced by high share of cash transactions Private equity & hedge funds Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

  27. Housing MarketCash Sales

  28. Housing Market Housing Finance Unsustainably high share of cash transactions Mortgage availability has been restricted by Dodd Frank Capital Standards Underwriting Standards Limited Private Securitization Demise of Mortgage Brokering Shell shock Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

  29. Florida Forecast

  30. Florida Forecast

  31. Florida Forecast

  32. Florida Forecast

  33. Florida Forecast

  34. Florida Forecast

  35. Florida Forecast

  36. Florida Forecast

  37. 2014-2017 Averages;Q1 2014 Forecast

  38. 2014-2017 Averages;Q4 2013 Forecast

  39. 2014-2017 Averages;Q4 2013 Forecast

  40. Thank you • Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D. • Director • Institute for Economic Competitiveness • (407) 823-1453 • Sean@SeanSnaith.com • WWW.IEC.UCF.EDU • www.facebook.com/seansnaith • Twitter: @seansnaith

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