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Constructing the forecast involves forecaster knowledge and data; maintaining consistency is crucial. The National Weather Forecast Center staff follows a precise work schedule that includes receiving data, issuing bulletins, and preparing forecasts.
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SMN STAFF AND OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES Comisión Nacional del Agua Subdirección General Técnica
Constructing the Forecast • Based on the forecaster knowledge and experience, combined with model guidance and all available data • Important to maintain consistency with the previous issued forecast • Also important to remember that the guidance could be wrong!
National Weather Forecast CenterStaff (2004) • Four working groups with a leader • Ten Senior Forecasters • Three Aux. Meteorologists Shifts 07:00 Hrs 15:00 Hrs 23:00 Hrs
SMN forecast cycle duringsummer time (TC Activity) Time (hr:min) Activity 07:00 cycle begins 08:00 receive synop data 09:00 national met bulletin 10:00 tropical cyclone regions (Pacific & Atlantic bulletins) 08:00 11:00 14:00 TC advisories 12:00 receive model products prepare met discussion 14:30 Briefing 15:30 NAME QPF Forecast- México