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The Challenge of Stabilization

The Challenge of Stabilization. Gerald M. Stokes Director Joint Global Change Research Institute October 5, 2004. Point 1 : For carbon dioxide, stabilizing emissions is not enough. Emissions. Concentration.

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The Challenge of Stabilization

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  1. The Challenge of Stabilization Gerald M. StokesDirector Joint Global Change Research Institute October 5, 2004

  2. Point 1: For carbon dioxide, stabilizing emissions is not enough.

  3. Emissions Concentration To stabilize concentrations, emissions of CO2 must peak then decline - essentially to zero. Pre-industrial CO2

  4. Point 2: There are two major technological challenges in stabilizing carbon dioxide concentrations.

  5. Energy Efficiency & Reduced Demand Solar Wind Advanced Nuclear Advanced Gas Advanced Coal Conventional Biomass Business-As-Usual GapExtraordinary Improvement is Built in to BAU “Business-As-Usual” Technology Gap

  6. Advanced Biomass Soil Sequestration H2 w/Sequestration Fossil Power w/Seq. Addt’l Solar/Wind Addt’l Nuclear Addt’l Efficiency & Reduced Demand Stabilization GapTremendous Additional Technological Advance Required “Stabilization” Technology Gap Note: Conceptual Market Penetrations

  7. Point 3: Climate mitigation technologies must compete for market share.

  8. We currently know of no climate mitigation silver bullet • The world of today is very heterogeneous - many energy technologies and many fuels - and this will continue into the future. • Which technologies deploy, at what rate, and to what extent will unfold over time. • Stabilization technologies are unlikely to penetrate absent a specific signal that GHG emissions must be reduced.

  9. A reference case with continued technology development, and no climate policy. Technology Alone Won’t NECESSARILY Stabilize CO2 Concentrations Energy Related Carbon Emissions A reference case with advanced technology development of carbon capture and H2, but no climate policy. Emissions path that stabilizes CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm.

  10. Point 4: The scale of the climate change mitigation is hard to grasp - the combustion of fossil fuels is one of the largest industries on the planet.

  11. Many times we lose sight of the scale of the problem • Annual current global emissions (without deforestation) 6.6 gigatons of carbon - • 24.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide • Global reservoirs • Atmosphere is 750 gigatons (carbon) • Standing biomass is 650 gigatons (carbon) • Terrestrial soils have 1500 gigatons (carbon) • Increase in Atmosphere since pre-industrial period - 200 gigatons carbon • Just 1 gigaton is a lot …

  12. 2740 Empire State Buildings or 77 Empire State Buildings made out of solid lead 142,857,142 African elephants That’s enough elephants stacked on top of each other to reach from Earth to the moon and halfway back One gigaton is… • Greater than the mass of all the humans on the planet • Greater than the annual global production of iron and steel

  13. It currently appears that we will have to solve the problem in two stages • Transitional technologies that provide near term relief … • Terrestrial sequestration (this century) • Nuclear power without fuel reprocessing (to 2050) • Carbon dioxide capture and storage (2 centuries) • Efficiency improvements (thermodynamic limits) • Renewable energy without storage • Longer term solutions … • Fusion … • Biotechnology … maybe closer than we think • Renewable energy with storage (otherwise 20% limit) • Restructuring energy demand (takes a long time)

  14. Create 3500 Sleipners Add 4 million windmills Decrease annual car travel to 5000 miles/yr Increase Bio-ethanol Nuclear for Coal 70/year - 1 now Add twice current capacity per year Urban design - only 2 billion vehicles by 2054 1/6 of world crop production 700 nukes - 14/yr Just to get a gigaton per year reduction in 2054 - economics aside Pacala, S. and R. Socolow. 2004. Science305:968-972.

  15. Point 6: Not all climate solutions work everywhere. Some have advantages over others in different parts of the world even within countries.

  16. Hydrogen economy in the U.S. will likely be tied to sequestration … where will we put the carbon? • There is some mismatch between capture and storage and existing power plants • Even more so for motor vehicles.

  17. Global CO2 Storage Capacity: A Very Heterogeneous Natural Resource Gigatons of Carbon Based on current understanding of reservoirs Courtesy Jim Dooley

  18. Challenges in keeping CO2 concentrations at a level that prevents ‘dangerous interference’ with the climate system • Not forgetting that the scale of the problem is huge • Requires a ‘technology revolution’ if not two • Technologies must not only be technically feasible but economically viable • Globally, everyone and every sector must contribute to mitigation, while solutions must be tailored to different regions. • Policy benefit is backwards - insurance paradigm • Real costs won’t be fully known until we we are well into an emissions mitigation regime.

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