Strategy formation: India's Liberal Political Strategy: 2004 and beyond For the Workshop organised by India Policy Insti

1. Strategy formation: India's Liberal Political Strategy: 2004 and beyond For the Workshop organised by India Policy Institute: 5-8 January 2004 by Sanjeev Sabhlok Version 0.8 29 December 2003

2. contents • About the workshop • Strategic intent • Strategic review • Strategic analysis and options • Strategy

3. About the workshop 1

4. Review of the Indian state • Where are we today? • We have got our independence but minds and actions are still not free • The billion gems of India are still unpolished • Our democracy is a sham • Where do we want to be in the future? • Provide opportunities for everyone in India to reach their full potential • Ensure that an environment is created where these opportunities are fostered and protected

5. Why are we bothered? • Why is “getting there” important? • It is an insult to India’s potential that people are not secure today, do not have appropriate education, and do not get the opportunities to do what they can • Providing good policy to India will make India liveable, secure, and a great place to be

6. Making up one’s mind • “Getting there is not my responsibility!” • We have a system where only the corruptible can flourish • But the country is liberalising, isn’t it? • If only our politicians and our bureaucrats did their job properly • If only our population had not grown so large • If it could have been done, it would have been done • It can’t be done anyway; it is so difficult, and there are so many obstacles • The timing is not right • We don’t have a mascot

7. Let us record the facts “The greatest impediment to action is … the want of that knowledge which is gained by discussions preparatory to action.” Pericles Need to think through very carefully, and then act out the imperative

8. Role of IPIIPI is a ‘pie in the sky’ so far – of no real use to India • Characteristics of this framework • Labour intensive in terms of debate • Helpful in learning about the key players in the “liberal marketplace” of India • Output is not conclusive in any way • Unless there is action this is just a pile of words • Preliminary Policy framework to attract thinkers with common core of ideas • Constitution • Manifesto • Etc. Initial IPI effort March 1998- now Second stage of IPI effort (concurrent) Deliver strategy of action

9. Future of policy debates on IPI • Policy discussion and debate on the Internet has its merits but it has reached a point of diminishing returns • Everybody (including the committed Liberals) is on a slightly different “page” due to different experience, knowledge, and understanding • The best that can be hoped for is a consensus on extremely basic issues, such as “the assumptions of a liberal” • These discussions are in any case not meant to be conclusive: it is nobody’s claim that the draft constitution or manifesto prepared at IPI is anything but a crude list or concept note, a “policy skeleton” • Effort on studying policy implications beyond a point is wasted energy: none of this discussion is reaching “the ground” and will not reach till we do the hard work required to provide a practical alternative • The “policy skeleton” provided by IPI would be one of many inputs to the finalisation of policy documents in the future. That responsibility would vest with group authorised to do so • Policy discussion can continue on the side

10. Moving on: Delivering a liberal strategy It is time to workshop A workshop with like-minded people • Workshop to consider all practical issues related the formation of political party and running it successfully • IPI sponsoring this workshop • Dates: 5th January 2004 to 8th January 2004 • Open seminar on 9th January 2004

11. Strategy and tactics

12. Where to go • Boils down to an agreed: • Vision • Mission • Methods • Values

13. Who is invited to workshop?Handful of committed liberals • Pragmatic visionaries and negotiators are needed - what Kanwal Rekhi calls “lightning conductors” – people who can collect the energy around them • there are enough theoreticians around; that is not enough • strategy is needed to build mass support for liberalism

14. Strategic intent and commitment 2

15. “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing” Edmund Burke “You must be the change you wish to see in the world”     M. K. Gandhi

16. Choices in front of each of us • Run away • Do nothing and hope nothing • Hope that someone else will do it • Make excuses since it is difficult Rough road • Teach someone else to do it • Form a political party • and ‘do it’! Clear road ahead

17. Hypothesis • Ensuring change occurs “on the ground” requires holding the power and authorisation of the people to make the change happen • Existing political parties that hold power do not understand how to get India to where it can be: • Teaching them how to do it is a tedious and wasteful process with little hope of success • Participating in India’s existing democratic process, no matter how seriously flawed, is the imperative

18. India’s political spectrum Heavy mixing Huge vacuum: Secular, economic liberalism BJP Mix religion and politics Congress Party Liberal Party Communist Party No mixing Heavy role: LEFT PARTIES Role of government in economic activity Minimal role: RIGHT PARTY

19. Adding a regional dimension Religion-political mix Regional priority Economic role of govt

20. Questions before the workshop • What are the existing liberal platforms? • Liberal Group, SBP, Lok Satta • Do liberals need a separate political platform? (administer poll) • Deciding the decision tree for the workshop

21. Decision tree YES/ with some effort Action Plan Immediate feasibility of political party Feasibility of other political Platform/s OR mass movement NO Action Plan It may be desirable to build and sustain a political platform even if a political party is not feasible immediately – provide opportunity to potential political entrepreneurs/ visionaries (Indian National Congress 1885 model)

22. Why a political party? • There are 100+ big or small political parties in India. Why do we need another one? • We all know we need one, but let us try and codify a clear and concise answer that can be consistently sold Fill in the blanks: We need a liberal political party because ……………

23. Strategic review 3

24. Goal of strategic review • Determine the key obstacles • Determine the gap to be overcome

25. Strategic process of workshop: focus on formulation Strategy formulation Strategy implementation 3. assess environmental factors 1.Identify current mission and strategic goals, if any • 2.Conduct competitive analysis: • strengths • weakness • opportunity • threats • Develop specific strategies • operational • functional carry out strategic plans maintain strategic control 4. assess human resource factors

26. Strategic review method • Learnings from the past • 1. Environmental scan andforce field analysis • 2. Causal analysis • 3. Competitive analysis • Customer (voter) analysis • SWOT analysis • Key constraints analysis

27. 3.1 Learnings from the past: Swatantra experience 3.1 • Haste makes waste: avoid riff-raff (and the corrupt) • Screen all members, leaders and candidates? • Incremental growth better than too rapid? • Build a ‘chain’ of leaders • Party should not die with death of a leader • Potential leaders to be chosen who value the party and the country more than themselves • Leaders to ensure that the party can be sustained for long periods in the political wilderness, if necessary • Summary of one’s understanding of Pasricha – next slides

28. Answer to this question needed The Swatantra party was started on liberal principles. What has changed since then that will make people believe this time around this another experiment will not degenerate and disintegrate?

29. Lesson No.1 : Liberals are no different to other human beings, and we should be humble and accept our individual limitations Gandhi too had many preconceived notions; the one difference was that he had less of them than others and was willing to continuously learn. He wrote in Community Service News, September -- October, 1946, "I have great concern about introducing machine industry. The machine produces too much too fast, and brings with it a sort of economic system which I cannot grasp. ... as we grow in understanding, if we feel the need of machines, will certainly have them. ... we shall introduce machines if and when we need them." He kept saying that he was a seeker for the Truth and was happy to be corrected. Obviously one man can only learn so much in one lifetime so we can understand why he could not understand the capitalist system of Adam Smith. If he could find the time to understand it, he would have surely changed his views. Liberals will need to build a political organisation that is based entirely on rigorous thinking, and complete equality. Lesson No. 2: Never tolerate a person on the Executive Council who does not challenge any view that the person does not agree with. Just because someone says so, does not make a thing true. Even Masani made such an appeal, that eventually destroyed the party. At page 79 Pasricha says, "Mariswamy, the general secretary of the Madras party, was arguing against the alliance [Grand Alliance of 1971] fairly cogently, when Masani interrupted with the remark that Rajaji was in favour of the alliance. A sudden, dramatic change came over Mariswamy. He stopped in midstream and abjectly announced that he withdrew his remarks unreservedly and totally. It struck me as extremely peculiar that the leader of the National Executive level should so abjectly withdraw his considered opinion merely at the mention of Rajaji's opinion. This is a small illustration of the type of leadership the Swatantra party was able to scrounge." Subservience to autocratic "rule", real or perceived, is a more natural state of man than democracy, particularly in India. Never accept a sheep or 'yes men'. Lesson 3: Nip the evil in the bud At page 130, Pasricha talks of Masani being "fed up with the state of indiscipline in the party." At page 36, Pasricha points out how the Jan Sangh nipped in the bud any deviationist by expelling him from the party. People who discriminate against women, Harijans, Muslims, etc., etc., need to be blocked at the doorstep, but if they manage to infiltrate, they need to be expelled at the first opportunity. 

30. Lesson 4: Build party workers Nobody in the party seemed to be bothered about building a set of workers who would proselytise. Apostles were in very short supply. A corps of trained, devoted workers, functioning under the direct control of a centre, could have sown the gospel far and wide and counteracted the prevailing socialistic rhetoric." "No attempt was made to formulate a detailed scheme for the training of cadres." (p.115) The party clearly did not have a strategy for the long-term. It was dependent on Rajaji in more ways than one. Lesson 5: Do not contest elections until fully ready Repeatedly, Pasricha shows the ill-judged keenness of state leaders as well as National leaders to contest elections well beyond the capacity of the party to organise. Resources need to be spent strategically and very prudently. Recklessness and haste can only destroy. That is one more reason to have ‘big picture’ strategy to be continuously reviewed. Lesson 6: Never consort with parties the do not have the same principles The moment the party compromises its fundamental principles, it is as good as dead. We are liberals. We do not provide Indian citizens with a hodge podge of policies - strictly liberal only. Lesson 7: Ensure rigorous audit of the party Tendency of state units to be highly factionalised, based on feudal or caste principles. All the demerits of existing political parties began to rapidly emerge in the State units of the Swatantra party including financial irregularities. A rigorous audit of party membership, funds, processes, etc., is essential for the party to not deteriorate "around the fringes". Lesson 8 : Place a significant membership fee  By putting a low membership fee, wealthier individuals with political ambitions are able to enrol a significant number of dumb followers by paying for their fees. Lesson 9: The importance of allowing joint stock companies to fund political parties

31. Political competitors Rivalry within Liberals Fund supplier power Substitutes for power and influence 3.2 Environmental scan 3.2 Constitutional and Legal Environment (Indian, global) Technological Environment Voter power and interests Demographic Environment EconomicEnvironment Socio-cultural Environment

32. Current liberal political strategy PETITIONS and PLEAS • Ask political parties to make some basic changes in the Constitution or the Representation of People’s Act • Has not worked • Plead the Supreme Court to empower the people in terms of knowledge of candidates’ background • Knowing more about candidates will not ensure that liberal policies will automatically emerge

33. Potential learning from environment scan: Opportunity knocks • The environment for liberalism is at its best ever, since the last 50 years • The challenge is • How not to fail • If we fail how to be resilient and not give up • The first challenge is to begin

34. Environment analysis Force Field Analysis Old guard (Swatantra)

35. Competitive and demand analysis 3.3

36. 5 6 3.4 8 8 Scale of 1-10, 10 being ‘big’

37. The conditions for the creation of a strong Liberal front were never more ripe than they are today.

38. SWOT Implications – an example KEY CHALLENGE: How to overcome this

39. 1. Indian liberals tend not to see themselves (in a theoretical framework) as providers of governance services, but providers of gently tendered advice to socialists and ruffians through newspapers and booklets. This mirrors what liberals did with the British in 1890s to 1930s, but that method made them irrelevant to India's freedom. One sees the provision of governance as a fundamental liberal obligation, but there are few takers of this basic theoretical view. Ie., of the two key pillars of liberalism, viz., capitalism and democracy, we are 100% at ease with capitalism but 0% with democracy. Most of us preach participation in democracy by the people but shun it like leprosy personally, since democracy is a beautiful word but "too dirty" to touch. We may be half-liberal in a theoretical sense. We have no (or few) Thomas Jefferson or James Madison or Edmund Burke, or Rajaji or even Sapru. 2. We have extremely limited resources in terms of funds, support or people; almost no Indian industrialist of any standing has any interest in promoting liberalism, leave alone a liberal political alternative. We do not even know 50 people who would like to come to the seminar on 9th January. 3. The intricacies and enormous magnitude of the needed effort are not readily appreciated nor the complex problem of inventing a viable incentive system to sustain the effort. .

40. Electoral success – its causes(fishbone) 3.6 Resources Image Funds Message Unity Accountability Volunteers Integrity Humility and courtesy Electoral success Credibility One on one persuasion Regular contact • Having the material to deliver • Delivering • Winning again and again till the job is done Dependability Reliability Attention to voter

41. Barrier Gap (1-10, 10 being highest) 1. No clear message (4) Not insurmountable 2. No credible leader/s (6) Serious gap: risks to be minimised to attract 3. People to run party (top down approach) (7) Preconditions to be met to attract political people 4. No funds (3) Not insurmountable if msg and leadership exists 5. ROP S29A (4) Not insurmountable Key barriers and gap (supply side)

42. Strategic analysis and options 4

43. Barrier 1 – No clear message "impossibility of weaning away the half-starved, illiterate electorate of India from the fantastic charms evoked by the repetitive intonations of the blessings expected from the socialistic haven the Congress was building." (Pasricha) If a powerful and simple message can be created, it will attract people and resources. If such a message had existed in the past, this workshop would have been completely redundant, since someone would surely have taken the message to the people. A major focus therefore has to be in determining whether we have a distinctive and attractive message, and what does it look like? The message would have to be short and persuasive. None of the potential messages so far have met that criteria.

44. Strategy to overcome barrier - Stagewise differentiation • It is the median voter that counts • Extreme position (e.g. strongly libertarian) is unlikely to enthuse the median voter • Libertarian party in USA is struggling and will continue to struggle for a very long time • Classical liberal thinkers with libertarian policies will need to educate the population and ensure that median voter understands these ideas and policies • Societal equity must be on the agenda: e.g. negative income tax

45. Stagewise differentiation - contd • Until the voter is convinced that the Liberal Party will not attack the unions, and will eliminate poverty as a top priority, the voter is unlikely to support this effort • There must be a gradual shift in policy positions from slightly right-of-centre initially, to more classical positions as the population understands the value of classical liberal thinking • This strategy would ensure that political power is obtained immediately rather than in the distant future - so that the “positive cycle” of stagewise differentiation can come into play • Being hard-bound on espousing a strongly libertarian position initially would destroy the Party given that India comes from a very socialist tradition, unlike the USA

46. How we can compete 3.5 Way forward • Differentiation (30% of effort) – integrity/ ethical, peace, evidence of success of such policies (efficacy) • Marketing (70% of effort) – building the image, credibility, viability

47. Potential messages • - Hamein aur kahein jaana hai, gandagi aur garibi se door • - Bharat ko das saal me Singapore banaieynge • - visuals of communal rioting on one side and peaceful, wealthy communities on the other • - Hamari party ki guarantee - kabhi koi bhrashtachaar nahin • Hamein bahut kuchh badalna hai • Swaraj se swatantrata ki or • Bhrastachar char imandar sahabon aur netaon se nahin shasan vyavstha me krantikari parivartan se ghatega • Sarkar har haal mein aapaki svatantrata ki rakshak pahle hai sevak baad mein • Sarkar janta ka dhan lekar janta ke kaam acchitarah nahin karati, isliye sarkar chhoti ho to janta ka dhan kam kharch hoga....

48. Bounds to our message • Passion about our product is helpful, but emotional nonsense often does not sell. • Constructive disagreements within or outside will help make our product more valuable. Picking fights, emotional outbursts and sabre-rattling will not. • What kind of linguistic civility/discipline do we incorporate while still maintaining solid grounding on liberal principles and freedom of expression?

49. Barrier 2 – Leader/s • Leaders emerge when • situation is ripe (risks are minimal) • intellectual climate shifts • We cannot expect leaders to be risk takers • provide significant certainty of success • provide some certainty of durability of the demand • demand reflected in take up of “business plan” by intellectual and ‘financial investors • asking anyone to ‘plunge’ into ankle-deep water is futile

50. Entrepreneurs are not risk takers: They start a process when all risks are controlled and the outcome is clearly visible Risks in this “business” need to be overcome to attract politically interested people Dissonance among leaders No funding source, few candidates Better to not begin such a thing