Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Matt Price Lake Research Partners

1. Public Support for Restoration Efforts in the Gulf States Findings from a Survey of 2061 Likely Voters in the Gulf Region September 7 – September 13, 2010 Christine Matthews Bellwether Research and Consulting http://www.bellwether-research.com/ 703.650.5203 Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Matt Price Lake Research Partners Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY DC Office: 1726 M St NW | Suite 1100 | 20036 www.lakeresearch.com 202.776.9066

2. Survey Methods * Telephone interviews with 2061 likely General Election Voters in the Gulf States region, including 426 cases in Louisiana, 404 cases in Mississippi, 408 cases in Texas, 409 cases in Alabama, and 414 cases in Florida. * Survey was conducted September 7 – September 13, 2010. * The margin of error for the entire Gulf Region is +/-2.2%, and is +/-4.9% for each of the individual states. * The sample was stratified geographically to reflect the expected turnout of voters in the 2010 General Election. 2

3. Key Points • Cleaning up the Gulf Coast beyond the damage caused by the oil spill is a high priority across the region. A majority (56%) say the environmental health of the Gulf Coast affects their state’s economy very much, and half (50%) say cleaning up the oil spill and restoring the Gulf to better than it was before the oil spill is an extremely important priority. Voters strongly respond to demands for action on this. • This is a voting issue. Members of Congress stand to gain from supporting efforts to invest in restoration. Nearly three-quarters of voters (72%) say they’d be more likely to vote for their Representatives in Congress and Senators if they supported making new investments to restore the health of the Gulf Coast, compared to just 16% who say they’d be less likely. From another perspective, 62% say they’d be less likely to support their members of Congress if they opposed making new investments. This is even true for independents: 67% say they’d be more likely to vote for those who support new investments. • Support for a proposal to invest BP’s fines in a new fund to restore the health of the Gulf Coast is robust. On a scale of 0-10, 50% of voters give this proposal a “10”, and just 10% give it a low score of zero to four. This is true across the region and across key demographic groups. The proposal receives high marks even when we mention that the money could alternatively be used to pay down the deficit. Over the course of the survey, the proposal’s support increases. • The proposal handily survives an engaged debate. When we match an argument in favor of the proposal against an argument saying we cannot afford to invest in restoration, voters remain squarely on the side of investing in restoration. They are convinced in even measure by arguments framed around the increased safety that would result from restoration (73% pro restoration, 23% against) as well as arguments framed around the need to stave off the negative economic consequences that would result from letting the Gulf deteriorate (72% pro restoration, 24% against) . • The strongest specific messages in favor of restoration tend to have an economic link. Nearly all of our messages were very convincing to a significant amount of voters, but messages that focus on the danger the Gulf States’ seafood and tourism industries would be in are persuasive, as is a message discussing the potential for job creation. It appears that localizing these messages makes them even stronger. The four messages we tested in Louisiana only—focusing on the destruction of communities, jobs, islands and the Louisiana way of life—were especially strong in that state, and stronger than the rest of our messages overall. 3

4. The Political ContextVoters in the region are very aware of—and concerned by—the long-term damage to coastal and marine areas in each state of the Gulf, even before the oil spill occurred. Restoration is a high priority—and a voting issue. Support for restoration crosses every state in the region, and is especially pronounced in Louisiana.

5. The false choice between the economy and the environment does not apply in this debate. Voters in the Gulf region overwhelmingly believe the environmental health of the Gulf Coast, including wetlands, marine areas, and coastal areas, affects their state’s economy. In fact, linking restoration to the economy is our strongest message direction. Effect of Gulf Coast’s Environmental Health on State’s Economy +75 5 Darker colors indicate intensity. Would you say the environmental health of the Gulf Coast region affects your state’s economy very much, somewhat, just a little, or not at all?

6. The linkage between environmental health and economic prosperity holds fast across the region, though Louisiana and Mississippi are particularly likely to express this opinion with intensity. Effect of Gulf Coast’s Environmental Health on State’s Economy 6 Darker colors indicate intensity. Would you say the environmental health of the Gulf Coast region affects your state’s economy very much, somewhat, just a little, or not at all?

7. More than three-quarters of voters believe it is important for the Federal government to take steps to restore the health of the Gulf Region and its wetlands, marine areas, and coastal areas. How Important a Priority for the Federal Government to Restore Health of the Gulf Region? +56 7 Darker colors indicate intensity. And thinking about the Gulf region, how important of a priority is it for the federal government to take steps to restore the health of the Gulf region? Is it an extremely important priority, a very important priority, a somewhat important priority, not too important of a priority, or not a priority at all?

8. More than seven in ten voters in every Gulf state believe that restoring the health of the Gulf Region is an extremely high priority. This sentiment is most intense in Louisiana and Alabama. How Important a Priority for the Federal Government to Restore Health of the Gulf Region? 8 Darker colors indicate intensity. And thinking about the Gulf region, how important of a priority is it for the federal government to take steps to restore the health of the Gulf region? Is it an extremely important priority, a very important priority, a somewhat important priority, not too important of a priority, or not a priority at all?

9. In voters’ minds, the time for action is long overdue. Two-in-three voters recognize that degradation to the Gulf Coast’s marine and coastal areas as a result of man-made activities had occurred even before the recent oil spill. Degradation of Gulf By Man-Made Activities BEFORE the Oil Spill 9 Darker colors indicate intensity. Do you believe the Gulf Coast had been degraded by man-made activities before the oil spill? [If yes] Would you say it had been degraded by man-made activities a lot, somewhat, or just a little?

10. This is a voting issue. Members of Congress from the Gulf States would be wise to get behind these efforts. By a ratio of 4.5-to-1, voters are more likely to vote for federal legislators who support new investments to restore the health of the Gulf Coast. More or Less Likely to Vote for Representatives in Congress who SUPPORT new investments? +56 10 Darker colors indicate intensity. And if your Representative in Congress and U.S. Senators SUPPORTED making new investments to restore the health of the Gulf Coast, even beyond the oil spill, would you be more or less likely to vote for them?

11. This is a voting issue in every state. Voters in Louisiana and Alabama are even more likely to vote for a member of Congress who supports these investments to restore the health of the Gulf Coast. More or Less Likely to Vote for Representatives in Congress who SUPPORT new investments? 11 Darker colors indicate intensity. And if your Representative in Congress and U.S. Senators SUPPORTED making new investments to restore the health of the Gulf Coast, even beyond the oil spill, would you be more or less likely to vote for them?

12. Democrats are most behind this, though even two-thirds of independents and Republicans are supportive of members of Congress who will support these new investments. More or Less Likely to Vote for Representatives in Congress who SUPPORT new investments? 12 Darker colors indicate intensity. And if your Representative in Congress and U.S. Senators SUPPORTED making new investments to restore the health of the Gulf Coast, even beyond the oil spill, would you be more or less likely to vote for them?

13. Perhaps more important, solid majorities of voters promise to punish members of Congress who oppose restoration efforts. More or Less Likely to Vote for Representatives in Congress who OPPOSE new investments? -38 13 Darker colors indicate intensity. And if your Representative in Congress and U.S. Senators OPPOSED making new investments to restore the health of the Gulf Coast, even beyond the oil spill, would you be more or less likely to vote for them?

14. About three-in-five voters (or more) in each state say they’d be less likely to vote for a member of Congress who opposed making new investments, with the intensity particularly strong in Louisiana. More or Less Likely to Vote for Representatives in Congress who OPPOSE new investments? 14 Darker colors indicate intensity. And if your Representative in Congress and U.S. Senators OPPOSED making new investments to restore the health of the Gulf Coast, even beyond the oil spill, would you be more or less likely to vote for them?

15. This trend holds across partisan boundaries. This sentiment is strongest among Democrats but significant among independents and Republicans as well. More or Less Likely to Vote for Representatives in Congress who OPPOSE new investments? 15 Darker colors indicate intensity. And if your Representative in Congress and U.S. Senators OPPOSED making new investments to restore the health of the Gulf Coast, even beyond the oil spill, would you be more or less likely to vote for them?

16. Contrary to conventional wisdom, voters in this region hold favorable opinions of the environmental players in this debate, including the E.P.A. Images of the Environmental Players No opinion/ Never heard (%) Net Favorable Unfavorable 14 20 18 29 26 35 16 Darker colors indicate intensity. Now I'd like to ask you about some institutions and organizations. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you have heard of the institution or organization but do not know enough to have an impression or if you haven’t heard of the institution or organization, just say so, and we will move on. Have you heard of . . .

17. These voters remain positive toward offshore drilling, and oil companies in general, even as BP's reputation has suffered as a result of the spill. Images of Drilling and Oil Companies No opinion/ Never heard (%) Net Favorable Unfavorable 8 33 8 11 10 -24 17 Darker colors indicate intensity. Now I'd like to ask you about some institutions and organizations. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you have heard of the institution or organization but do not know enough to have an impression or if you haven’t heard of the institution or organization, just say so, and we will move on. Have you heard of . . .

18. Public Support for Restoration EffortsVoters start off strongly supporting a proposal to invest BP’s fines in a fund to restore the health of the Gulf Coast environment. They support this proposal even in the face of suggestions to use the money to pay down the deficit instead and attacks alleging the proposal is unaffordable at this point in time. Over the course of the survey, support for the proposal only grows stronger.

19. Voters overwhelmingly support a proposal to invest BP’s fines in a fund to restore the health of the Gulf Coast environment (rather than using that money to help reduce the deficit). Support is especially strong in Louisiana and Mississippi. Initial Ask: Support Proposal to Invest BP Fines On a Scale of 0-10? Results By State Mean 7.8 7.9 7.8 8.3 7.9 7.8 19 Darker colors indicate intensity. As you may know, BP will be required to pay for the damage it caused in the oil spill, and in addition will be fined for each barrel of oil that was spilled. Traditionally those fines go into the U.S. treasury to help reduce the deficit. On a scale of zero to 10, how much do you support or oppose a proposal to invest those fines in a fund to restore the health of the Gulf Coast environment, with 10 meaning you strongly support it, 0 meaning you strongly oppose it, and 5 meaning you are undecided? You can be anywhere in between

20. This proposal is a winner across the board: among men and women, young and old, college-educated and non-college educated. Initial Ask: Support Proposal to Invest BP Fines On a Scale of 0-10? Results By Gender/Age and Gender/Education Mean 7.8 7.5 8.1 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.2 7.1 7.8 20 Darker colors indicate intensity. As you may know, BP will be required to pay for the damage it caused in the oil spill, and in addition will be fined for each barrel of oil that was spilled. Traditionally those fines go into the U.S. treasury to help reduce the deficit. On a scale of zero to 10, how much do you support or oppose a proposal to invest those fines in a fund to restore the health of the Gulf Coast environment, with 10 meaning you strongly support it, 0 meaning you strongly oppose it, and 5 meaning you are undecided? You can be anywhere in between

21. The measure appeals to voters of all races and partisan stripes. Initial Ask: Support Proposal to Invest BP Fines On a Scale of 0-10? Results By Party ID and Race Mean 7.8 8.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 8.2 8.5 21 Darker colors indicate intensity. As you may know, BP will be required to pay for the damage it caused in the oil spill, and in addition will be fined for each barrel of oil that was spilled. Traditionally those fines go into the U.S. treasury to help reduce the deficit. On a scale of zero to 10, how much do you support or oppose a proposal to invest those fines in a fund to restore the health of the Gulf Coast environment, with 10 meaning you strongly support it, 0 meaning you strongly oppose it, and 5 meaning you are undecided? You can be anywhere in between

22. The proposal also stands up well to attack. Simulating an engaged debate, support holds up over opposition by roughly a three-to-one margin. Both approaches tested in favor of the proposal—one focusing on public safety, the other on economic necessity—are similarly persuasive. Engaged Debate: Economic Angle Engaged Debate: Safety Angle 22 Darker colors indicate intensity. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your own point of view. [IF CHOOSE STATEMENT, ASK:] Is that statement MUCH closer or SOMEWHAT closer to your own point of view.

23. ENGAGED DEBATE TEXTS: Split Sample C: Pro Argument (Economic Angle) [Some/Other People Say] we must clean up the oil spill, but we also must make the Gulf Coast less vulnerable to future disasters and invest in restoring our Coast and marshes. Our fishing and tourism industries have been devastated by deterioration, and they bring in jobs and billions to our economy. And our coastal marshes’ collapse alone can destroy our $100 billion energy infrastructure. We must invest in restoration. Split Sample D: Pro Argument (Safety Angle) [Some/Other People Say]we must clean up the oil spill, but we’re risking our communities’ health and safety if wedon’t alsomake the Coast less vulnerable to future disasters. Before the oil spill, the natural barriers, marshes and wetlands that protect us from floods and hurricanes had eroded dramatically. The natural wetlands that filter out toxic chemicals and other pollutants from our water were also vanishing. We must invest in restoration. Opposition Statement [Some/Other People Say] Families in our region are already struggling to make ends meet and pay taxes for ineffective, big government programs. We can’t afford to spend even more on restoration programs, no matter how well-intentioned. We must clean up the oil spill, but the environmentalists are exaggerating the problems. We shouldn’t let them use this tragedy as an excuse for billions more in wasteful spending that we’ll have to pay for. 23

24. After hearing the pro and con statements, voters grow slightly more supportive of the proposal, underscoring the ineffectiveness of the opposition’s argument. Engaged Debate Ask: Support Proposal to Invest BP Fines On a Scale of 0-10? Mean 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.5 8.2 7.9 24 Darker colors indicate intensity. Sometimes over a course of a survey like this, people changes their minds. As mentioned, BP will be required to pay for the damage it caused in the oil spill, and in addition will be fined for each barrel of oil that was spilled. Traditionally those fines go into the U.S. treasury to help reduce the deficit. On a scale of zero to 10, how much do you support or oppose a proposal to invest those fines in a fund to restore the health of the Gulf Coast environment, with 10 meaning you strongly support it, 0 meaning you strongly oppose it, and 5 meaning you are undecided? You can be anywhere in between.

25. By the end of the survey, after voters hear a series of arguments in favor of Gulf Coast restoration, the proposal achieves the highest level of support from a majority of voters in every state. Final Ask: Support Proposal to Invest BP fines On a Scale of 0-10? Mean 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.7 8.3 8.0 25 Darker colors indicate intensity. And finally, sometimes over a course of a survey like this, people changes their minds. As mentioned, BP will be required to pay for the damage it caused in the oil spill, and in addition will be fined for each barrel of oil that was spilled. Traditionally those fines go into the U.S. treasury to help reduce the deficit. On a scale of zero to 10, how much do you support or oppose a proposal to invest those fines in a fund to restore the health of the Gulf Coast environment, with 10 meaning you strongly support it, 0 meaning you strongly oppose it, and 5 meaning you are undecided? You can be anywhere in between.

26. A host of other reforms are popular as well, including proposals to create a separate fund for the Gulf Region and the Mississippi River Delta (paid for by taxes and/or penalty payments for BP), to fast-track existing projects, and to create a multi-state restoration and protection task force. 26 Darker colors indicate intensity. Now, I’m going to read you some specific proposals in the wake of the oil spill, hurricane damage, and other man-made disasters in the Gulf to restore the region and make it less vulnerable to disasters in the future. Please tell me whether you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose a proposal that would . . . .

27. Taxing BP per barrel of oil spilled is in the top tier of policy proposals in every state, save Alabama, which is more focused on creating a separate fund for the Gulf Region. 27 Now, I’m going to read you some specific proposals in the wake of the oil spill, hurricane damage, and other man-made disasters in the Gulf to restore the region and make it less vulnerable to disasters in the future. Please tell me whether you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose a proposal that would . . . .

28. Messages and PositioningMessages that focus on the negative consequences for the region’s seafood and tourism industries without restoration are especially persuasive. A message emphasizing the job creation that would result from restoration efforts also has some appeal. The four messages tested in Louisiana only—focusing on the destruction of communities, jobs, islands and the Louisiana way of life—are especially strong in that state.

29. Voters express alarm about several of the potential effects of further environmental deterioration of the Gulf Coast. They are most worried about the seafood industry being devastated, wildlife disappearing, communities becoming vulnerable to flooding, and the natural beauty and heritage of the region being harmed. 29 Darker colors indicate intensity. Now, I’m going to read you some statements about the possible effects of the environmental deterioration of the Gulf Coast, which includes the severe deterioration of some areas even before the oil spill took place. Please tell me how concerning each possible effect is on a scale of zero to 100, with 100 meaning the most concerning and zero meaning the least. PROMPT EVERY THIRD ITEM: How concerning is that for you on a scale of zero to 100, where 100 means absolutely the most concerning and zero means not concerning at all.

30. Concern about devastation of the seafood industry is in the top tier for each state—especially in Louisiana and Mississippi. 30 Now, I’m going to read you some statements about the possible effects of the environmental deterioration of the Gulf Coast, which includes the severe deterioration of some areas even before the oil spill took place. Please tell me how concerning each possible effect is on a scale of zero to 100, with 100 meaning the most concerning and zero meaning the least. PROMPT EVERY THIRD ITEM: How concerning is that for you on a scale of zero to 100, where 100 means absolutely the most concerning and zero means not concerning at all.

31. Messages that emphasize the potential danger to the Gulf States’ seafood and tourism industries are especially persuasive. The four messages we tested in Louisiana only—focusing on the destruction of communities, jobs, islands and the Louisiana way of life—are especially strong in that state. { Asked in Louisiana Only 31 Darker colors indicate intensity. Now, I'm going to read you some statements people have made in favor of investing in restoration of the region to make it less vulnerable to disasters in the future. Please tell me whether each statement I read is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing reason to support investing in the restoration of the region to make it less vulnerable to disasters in the future. If you are not sure how you feel about a particular item, please say so

32. Once again, concerns about the effects on the seafood industry are pervasive across the states. Voters in Alabama and Texas are a little more likely to respond to a message discussing the potential in investments for job growth in their states, and voters in Florida and Mississippi responded more to concerns that the tourism industry could be damaged. { Asked in Louisiana Only 32 Now, I'm going to read you some statements people have made in favor of investing in restoration of the region to make it less vulnerable to disasters in the future. Please tell me whether each statement I read is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing reason to support investing in the restoration of the region to make it less vulnerable to disasters in the future. If you are not sure how you feel about a particular item, please say so

33. MESSAGE TEXT—ASKED IN LOUISIANA ONLY • [LOUISIANA COMMUNITY LOSS] In the next ten years, outlying communities such as Golden Meadow, Leeville, and Grand Isle may have to be abandoned by the residents due to rising water levels. We must act now to prevent further loss of our wetlands and save our communities. • [LOUISIANA JOBS] Fourteen thousand Louisianans work in fishing, another fourteen thousand in shipping and hundreds of thousands depend on tourism due to our unique culture rooted in our bayous and wetlands.  We must protect and rebuild these critical natural areas in order to keep these family-supporting jobs here. • [LOUISIANA WAY OF LIFE] Loss of the wetlands threatens our culturally unique way of life that makes southern Louisiana a special place to live.  From fishing, to crawfish boils with friends, we want to pass along these traditions and culture  to our children and grandchildren by protecting our homes and our wetlands. • [LOUISIANA ISLANDS SUBMERGED] There are already entire islands that are now submerged and communities that no longer exist.  We must act now to prevent further loss of our wetlands and save our communities. 33

34. MESSAGE TEXT—ASKED OF ALL • [SEAFOOD INDUSTRY] The Gulf accounts for one quarter of the nation’s seafood catch, but as the wetlands are destroyed, commercially important seafood species could become rare or extinct. Failure to restore the Gulf could be devastating for the thousands of fishermen and merchants in our seafood industry. That hurts our region’s economy when we’re most vulnerable. • [BEAUTY / TOURISM] The beaches and marshes of our Gulf Coast are among America’s most beautiful, memorable places, and Americans from all over bring their families here. If we don’t invest in restoring the Gulf, our region’s natural beauty and heritage will be lost. That means future generations won’t be able to enjoy them, and we can expect a severe blow to our tourism industry. • [WILL CREATE JOBS] Restoring the Gulf Coast could be an economic boon to families here. Efforts to clean up the Gulf Coast could create local, blue-collar and white-collar jobs that can’t be outsourced. That means more jobs for our communities so our children and grandchildren can stay while at the same time restoring the economic vitality of such an important region. • [FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE AGAINST STORMS] Our coastal wetlands and barrier islands are eroding rapidly, by as much as the size of 32 football fields a day in some places. These wetlands form a natural first line of defense against the worst storms, such as hurricanes and floods. If we don’t restore them, they’ll continue to erode, and we’ll be even more vulnerable to future disasters than we are now. • [ENERGY] Our region depends heavily on oil revenues, just as oil companies depend heavily on the health and vitality of the Gulf. The collapse of the coastal marshes in Louisiana will jeopardize $100 billion in energy infrastructure, which accounts for 27% of the U.S. energy production. We need to focus on restoration so we don’t jeopardize jobs and our economy. • [SCIENCE] Scientists and biologists say without action to restore the coast, we’ll lose the quality of our wetlands, our diversity of species, and our natural ability to protect against storms. They say 1.2 million acres of marsh have vanished due to erosion since the 1930s—an area the size of Delaware—because of too much drilling, erecting non-natural barriers, and man-made pollution. Without immediate action, our region and our economy will be hurt irreversibly. 34

35. Christine Matthews cmatthews@bellwether-research.com http://www.bellwether-research.com/ 703.650.5203 Celinda Lake clake@lakeresearch.com Daniel Gotoff dgotoff@lakeresearch.com Matt Price mprice@lakeresearch.com www.lakeresearch.com 202.776.9066