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Presentation to Business & Industry Association of New Hampshire’s

Housing New Hampshire’s Workforce Prepared for the New Hampshire Workforce Housing Council www.workforcehousingnh.com. Presentation to Business & Industry Association of New Hampshire’s “Workforce Housing Crunch” Conference Manchester, New Hampshire March 29, 2005 Prepared by

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Presentation to Business & Industry Association of New Hampshire’s

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  1. Housing New Hampshire’s WorkforcePrepared for the New Hampshire Workforce Housing Councilwww.workforcehousingnh.com Presentation to Business & Industry Association of New Hampshire’s “Workforce Housing Crunch” Conference Manchester, New Hampshire March 29, 2005 Prepared by Dr. Lisa K. Shapiro, Chief Economist Gallagher, Callahan & Gartrell, P.A. Augusta Boston Concord 800-528-1181 shapiro@gcglaw.com gcglaw.com

  2. Overview of Presentation • The Data • Key Trends in Housing in New Hampshire • 1990 – 1996 • 1996 – 2001 • 2001 – 2005 • The Literature • Market Forces • Non-market Forces • The Estimated Economic Impacts to New Hampshire • Employment • Income • Gross State Product • Sales • Tax Revenues

  3. Vacancy Rates and Rental Costs Gross Rental Costs Statewide Vacancy Rate Source: New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority Annual Rental Surveys.

  4. New Hampshire Residential Building Permits1990 - 2004

  5. Home Sale Prices vs. Household Income

  6. Changes in Assessment2000 - 2005

  7. Affordability of Workforce Housing Sources and Notes: New Hampshire Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, New Hampshire Occupational Employment and Wages, January 2005, based on the November 2003 survey by the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Program. Assessment Divisions of selected communities. Years for previous and current assessments differ across the communities, but all are between 2000 and 2005. Dotted lines represent the affordable home value for a household with one income earning the statewide average salary for that occupation. Affordability calculated here as three times annual income - actual affordability depends on specific income, interest rates, property taxes, debt ratios, household wealth, and etc

  8. Aggregate Housing Demand vs. Housing SupplyForecasted Annual Statewide

  9. Aggregate Housing Demand vs. Housing SupplyForecasted Annual by County

  10. Purchase Price, Family Income, and Interest Rates1988 - 2004

  11. New Hampshire Employer Opinion Polls2002 and 2005

  12. New Hampshire Employer Opinion Polls2002 and 2005

  13. Non-Market Factors • Examples of Regulatory Policies and Practices which Impact Housing Supply • Minimum Lot Size • Building Permit Limitations • Growth Management Ordinances • Impact Fees • Infrastructure Upgrades

  14. Estimating Aggregate Economic Impacts • 2 Models (REMI, RIMS II) • 3 Approaches (Housing Expenditures, Housing Prices, Construction) • Sensitivity Analysis

  15. Results Estimated Annual Increases in Key Economic Indicators (Millions of 2004 Dollars)

  16. Average Employment Growth in New Hampshire2001 - 2004

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