The FAIRMODE PM modelling guide

1. The FAIRMODE PM modelling guide Laurence ROUIL (laurence.rouil@ineris.fr) Bertrand BESSAGNET (bertrand.bessagnet@ineris.fr) FAIRMODE: 6th plenary meeting – 10-12 April 2013

2. Objectives • An initiative within the FAIRMODE WG1 activity • Third guide document to support use of modelling approaches for the implementation of the air quality directives • The application of models under the European Union's Air Quality Directive: A technical reference guide. (EEA report 10/2011) • Guide on modelling Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) for air quality assessment and planning relevant to the European Air Quality Directive. (ETC/ACM Technical Paper 2011/15) • A new guide devoted to PM modelling. Challenges: • Avoiding repetition of the other guides • Reviewing all users’ concerns, PM being a verysensitive and difficult issue

3. Challenges with PM modelling • Exceedances of the PM10 limit values are still reported by a large number of Member States : notification processes with the European Commission on-going. Some MS are likely to be fined. • Member States must demonstrate how exceedances can be managed and avoided: evaluation of national and local action plans is needed  scenario analysis • They must demonstrate that areas and number of inhabitants exposed to PM exceedances is under control with the objective of no exposure  mapping • They must assess their own responsibility in terms of emissions in the occurrence of complex phenomena involving LRT, natural sources, complex chemistry ...  understanding • General public pressure because of the well-known harmful impacts of PM on the human health

4. It seems that everywhere PM concentrations do not decrease as expected in some areas Source: EEA

5. Objective of the guidance : promoting PM modelling • Over the ten past years, significant development of modelling and measurement research activity for dealing with PM challenges • Models become more and more mature and follow the development of observation networks : • evaluation/validation • Data assimilation • Improved understanding with the availability of PM compounds measurements • They are more and more widely used for decision making.... • ... Providing that uncertainties are under control • Sources and emissions • Lack of knowledge about the chemical and dynamical processes (secondary organic aerosols formation, deposition..) • Sensitivity to boundary conditions

6. PM guide : table of content (i) • The document is conceived to answer or highlight questions the user dealing with policy applications should consider -> neither a scientific paper nor a list of tools, but an “operational” document • Not a review of current models : already covered in the previous guides • Along the document, concrete recommendations are proposed : “application guidance” • A large number of references where more information/data can be found • 1Introduction • 1.1General overview on modeling issues • 1.2Applications of PM modelling for the European Air Quality Directive • 2Main issues related to PM modelling • 2.1What should be modeled from aerosol typology and composition • 2.2Uncertainties in PM modelling • 2.3Linking models of different scales • 2.4Sensitivity to boundary and initial conditions (Regional models)

7. PM guide : table of content (ii) • 3Emission data • 3.1Sources of emission data: Bottom-up & Top-down inventories : • National contributions expected and input from FAIRMODE WG2 • 3.2Pre-treatment of emissions :Temporal disaggregation, Spatial re-gridding • 3.3Residential sector emissions (static and dynamic) • 3.4Traffic emissions (direct and indirect) • 3.5Wind blown dust emissions • 3.6Natural marine emissions • 3.7Ammonia emissions • 3.8Biogenic NO and VOC emissions • 3.9Fire emissions • 3.10Primary Organic Aerosol (POA) emissions • 4Meteorological data • 4.1Meteorology in CTMs • 4.2Meteorological drivers – downscaling • 4.3Urban meteorology • 4.4Expected impact of meteorological drivers on PM modelling

8. PM guide : table of content (iii) • 5 Quality control and evaluatioN • Remains to be written accounting for the FAIRMODE WG2 work (SG4 : benchamrking and model quality objectives) • 6 PM modelling applications for the AQ Directive (AQD) • 6.1Modelling requirements for assessment and reporting exceedances • The AQ Directive requirements : what is requested • Use of models for assessment: how do models answer to them? • Explaining exceedances due to natural events: sources of data (incl. COPERNICUS/MACC) and methodologies • Reporting exceedance of PM limit values by winter sanding or salting of roads: to be completed...national contributions ? • Explainingexceedances due to transboudary pollution: to be completed especially with COPERNICUS/MACC inputs • 6.2Modelling requirements for source apportionment • Issues + national contribution. Still needs to be completed with results from WG2/SG2 • 6.3Modelling requirements for planning and emission scenarios • How to run and assess model scenario runs : national contributions welcome ! • 6.4Modelling requirements for information and forecasting • Issues for policy support and available tools and data (especially within the COPERNICUS/MACC services)

9. Nextsteps • Your feedback is highly expected ! • Do you need (further) guidance and if yes on which topics? • How could we best take this up in a guide document? • Which elements of the draft PM Report do you appreciate and why (e.g. general info on the status of PM modelling or ‘application guidance’ as given in the draft document)? • Your contribution is still welcome • If you wish to illustrate some topics • If you wish to propose national methodologies, tools and references • If you do not agree with some points proposed in the document • Publication foreseen in 2013