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URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS 2009

URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS 2009. Jorge Lanzaro Wilson Center Public Policy Scholar. Presidential Election Run-off (November 2009). FA José Mujica 52,4%. PN Luis Alberto Lacalle 43,5%. First Round - October 2009. Concurrent Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

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URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS 2009

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  1. URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS2009 Jorge Lanzaro Wilson Center Public Policy Scholar

  2. Presidential Election Run-off (November 2009) FA José Mujica 52,4%. PN Luis Alberto Lacalle 43,5%

  3. First Round - October 2009 Concurrent Parliamentary and Presidential Elections FA obtained absolute majority in the two chambers with 47.96% of valid votes.

  4. GENERAL RESULTS 2009 Fuente: Corte Electoral.

  5. First FA Government2005-2010 • Social Democratic Government • Majority Government • Strong Presidential Leadership • President = Leader of the Party

  6. Second FA Government2010-2015 • Social Democratic experience is likely to continue, although with different emphases and some variations • In a more Competitive Political Scenario

  7. Competitive Scenario I • FA made an excellent election: remains the biggest party (alike the Colorado Party in the 1950s). • Mujica got more votes for the Presidency than Vazquez in 2004 (52.4% against 50.5%). • But in the 2009 first round the FA obtained less votes than in 2004 (48% against 50.5%)

  8. Competitive Scenario II • Uruguayan electorate is roughly divided into two similar blocs (around 48% each). • Rather comfortable but less loose parliament majority than 2005-10: • House of Representatives: 50% instead of 52% • Senate: 17 instead of 18

  9. Senate and House

  10. FA Party Leadership: One, Two or Three Heads ?? • Mujica is a strong popular leader. • Head of the biggest FA sector (50% of the FA seats in the House). • It is the first time in FA life that the same sector keeps the majority from one election to the next.

  11. FA Party Leadership: One, Two or Three Heads ?? • Nevertheless, Mujica is not the sole chief of the FA. • He has to test his presidential leadership competing with Astori and Tabare Vazquez. • Astori, as Vice President, is meant to share the government and to have influence on political decisions and nominations.

  12. Vázquez as the “Third Man” • Vazquez is going home with high popularity (around 70%). • He would probably play an important role, as party leader, and as a possible 2014 presidential candidate. • As such, he would eventually be a powerful (offstage) actor, competing with Mujica but also with Astori.

  13. FA Alignments • House of Representatives: Mujica’s sector (MPP) and its partners have a clear majority. • Senate: a more balanced picture.

  14. FA Alignments in the House

  15. FA Alignments in the Senate

  16. Government Formation Arduous FA Internal Negotiation Single Party Cabinet Possible Cabinet Share

  17. Government Formation II Arduous FA Internal Negotiation Government Agencies Councils: Central Bank, National Bank, Public Enterprises, Social Services

  18. “Coparticipación” Opposition Parties: “Coparticipación” in the Government Agencies Councils (majority and minority members): Central Bank, National Bank, Public Enterprises, Social Services

  19. Programmatic Agreements Programmatic Agreements between Government and Opposition Parties Working Groups on Public Safety, Energy, Education, Environment State Reforms or Other Public Policies ?

  20. Power Balance in the Partido Nacional Votes and Seats by Sector Fuente: Area de Política y Relaciones Internacinales del Banco de Datos de la Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República, Uruguay.

  21. FA Voters Social Origins(Equipos-Mori) • Estratos bajos = 40% FA – 47% PPTT • Estratos Medios Bajos = 43% por igual • Clase Media = 48% FA – 39% PPTT • Clase Media Alta = 48% FA – 40% PPTT • Clases Altas = 33% FA – 56% PPTT

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