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NPC Meeting Boston, MA November 7, 2003

NPC Meeting Boston, MA November 7, 2003. Stephen G. Whitley Senior Vice President & COO. Agenda. System Operations Market Operations Blackout Update Winter Outlook Back-Up Detail. System Operations. Operations Highlights. Boston & Hartford Weather Pattern:

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NPC Meeting Boston, MA November 7, 2003

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  1. NPC Meeting Boston, MA November 7, 2003 Stephen G. Whitley Senior Vice President & COO

  2. Agenda • System Operations • Market Operations • Blackout Update • Winter Outlook • Back-Up Detail

  3. System Operations

  4. Operations Highlights • Boston & Hartford Weather Pattern: • Rainfall conditions for the month were above normal; Temperatures throughout the region were slightly below normal; and, 1” – 2” of snow reported on October 23, 2003. • Peak load of 19,167 MW at 17:00 hours on October 16. • During October: • Solar Magnetic Disturbances (plus K-7) on October 24 and October 29 – 31. • M/S2 declared on October 24 – 25 and October 29 - 31 due to Solar Magnetic Disturbances. • Minimum Generation declared (New England wide) on October 1.

  5. Market Operations

  6. Day–Ahead & Real-Time Prices, ISO Hub:

  7. Congestion Marginal Loss LMP Day-Ahead LMP Average by Zone & Hub: (4.13) (1.72) (-1.35) (-2.00) (0.02) (-1.09) (-2.47) (-5.39) $/MWh Data Period: October 1 – 26, 2003

  8. Congestion Marginal Loss LMP Real-Time LMP Average by Zone & Hub: 97.4% (1.24) (1.47) (0.06) (-2.07) (-2.49) (-0.95) (-1.72) (-5.80) $/MWh Data Period: October 1 – 26, 2003

  9. Day Ahead Market vs. Forecast Load * Note: Data for October* Oct. 1-24, 2003 *

  10. Day Ahead LMP

  11. Real Time LMP Real-Time LMP for October 1 - 24, 2003 175 CT Import interface constrained due to Evening peaks coupled with tight CT capacity conditions. capacity conditions are coincident with the higher price spikes. 150 Canal and ORR-SO interfaces constrained. 8909B-1 125 Line constrained for loss of the 348 Line with a stuck 14T breaker at Millstone. E183E-4 Line constrained for loss of the 332S contingency (332 Line with a stuck breaker.) 100 $/MWh 75 50 25 0 10/01/2003 01 10/03/2003 01 10/05/2003 01 10/07/2003 01 10/09/2003 01 10/11/2003 01 10/13/2003 01 10/15/2003 01 10/17/2003 01 10/19/2003 01 10/21/2003 01 10/23/2003 01 Day INTERNAL_HUB CONNECTICUT MAINE NEMASSBOST NEWHAMPSHIRE RHODEISLAND SEMASS VERMONT WCMASS

  12. Settlement Data – Real Time & Balancing Market Percentage of Real-Time Load Fully Hedged Through ISO-NE Settlement System* Note: Balancing Market - This MW amount is after Day Ahead hedging and Internal Bilateral Transactions. It is a Participant Pool Total and does not consider locational pricing.

  13. Blackout Update

  14. Blackout Update • Reliability Committee will meet the beginning of December, 2003. • Review facts from the 2003 Blackout • Discussion of “Lessons Learned Session” for New England.

  15. Winter Outlook

  16. Winter 2003-04 Capacity AssessmentLeast Operable Capacity Margin - Week beginning November 1st MW Projected Peak (50/50) 18,820 Operating Reserve Required 1,700 Total Operable Cap. Required 20,520 Projected Capacity 32,590 Assumed Outages 7,600 Total Capacity 24,990 Operable Capacity Margin 4,470

  17. 2003 Capacity AssessmentLeast Operable Capacity Margin - Week beginning November 1st MW Projected Peak (90/10) 19,580 Operating Reserve Required 1,700 Total Operable Cap. Required 21,280 Projected Capacity 32,590 Assumed Outages 7,600 Total Capacity 24,990 Operable Capacity Margin 3,710

  18. Winter 2003-04 Capacity Assessment

  19. Winter 2003-04 Capacity Assessment

  20. New Generation Update • No new resources were added in October. • Status of Generation Projects as of October 31, 2003: No.MW In Construction 2 521 with 18.4 approval Not in Construction 6 1,444 with 18.4 Approval

  21. Back-Up Detail

  22. 2003 Capacity AssessmentLeast Operable Capacity Margin - Week beginning November 1st MW Projected Peak (90/10) 19,580 Operating Reserve Required 1,700 Total Operable Cap. Required 21,280 Projected Capacity 32,590 Assumed Outages 7,600 Total Capacity 24,990 Operable Capacity Margin 3,710

  23. 2003 Capacity Assessment

  24. 2003 Capacity Assessment

  25. Active: 434 Assets 340.3 MW Pending: 5 Assets 1.4 MW Zone Assets RT Price RT 30-Min RT 2-Hour Profiled * Assets RT Price RT 30-Min RT 2-Hour Profiled * CT 119 27.0 61.6 1.1 57.8 2 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 SWCT** 54 7.7 26.4 1.1 0.2 2 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 ME 4 0.4 0.0 0.0 76.0 NEMA 114 62.9 3.1 0.8 1.4 3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 NH 1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 RI 12 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 SEMA 72 7.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 VT 16 7.1 1.3 0.0 5.9 WCMA 96 9.7 4.8 2.3 6.9 Total 434 116.4 71.8 4.3 147.9 5 0.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 Demand Response(as of October 31, 2003) * Includes former Type 2 - Interruptible Loads ** SWCT assets included in CT values (SNEW 7 was in 2-Hour, now retired)

  26. Demand Response(as of October 31, 2003) Active: Pending: Zone Assets Total mw Assets Total mw CT 119 147.5 2 0.6 ME 4 76.4 NEMA 114 68.2 3 0.8 NH 1 0.4 RI 12 1.9 SEMA 72 7.9 VT 16 14.3 WCMA 96 23.7 Total 434 340.3 5 1.4

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