Evidence-Based Management What is it? Why do we need it? How does it look like in practice?

1. Congres Evidence-Based Zorglogistiek, 13 oktober 2011 Evidence-Based ManagementWhat is it?Why do we need it?How does it look like in practice?

2. Postgraduate Course • Evidence based management: What is it?

3. Definition Evidence-based management means making decisions about the management of employees, teams or organizations through the conscientious, explicit and judicious use of four sources of information: 1. The best available scientific evidence 2. Organizational facts, metrics and characteristics 3. Stakeholders’ values and concerns 4. Practitioner expertise and judgment

4. Four sources

5. What is evidence? Postgraduate Course • Evidence is not the same as ‘proof’ or ‘hard facts’ • Evidence can be - so strong that no one doubts its correctness, or - so weak that it is hardly convincing at all

6. Medicine: Founding fathers Postgraduate Course David Sackett Gordon Guyatt McMaster University Medical School, Canada

7. Management: Founding Mother Postgraduate Course

8. Management: Founding Fathers Postgraduate Course Robert Sutton Jeffrey Pfeffer

9. Postgraduate Course 2. Evidence-based management: Why do we need it?

10. EBMgt: some basic assumptions Postgraduate Course • Research produced by management scholars could be useful to organizations • Drawing on available evidence (including research produced by academics) is likely to improve decisions • Organizations do not appear to be strongly aware of nor use research findings • EBMgt is a potentially useful way of thinking about how we can incorporate research evidence into decision-making

11. Postgraduate Course Reason 1: Errors and Biases of Human Judgment

12. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course • Seeing order in randomness • Mental corner cutting • Misinterpretation of incomplete data • Halo effect • False consensus effect • Reinterpreting evidence • Group think • Confirmation bias • Authority bias • In-group bias • Recall bias • Anchoring bias • Inaccurate covariation detection • Distortions due to plausibility

13. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course • Seeing order in randomness • Mental corner cutting • Misinterpretation of incomplete data • Halo effect • False consensus effect • Reinterpreting evidence • Group think • Confirmation bias • Authority bias • In-group bias • Recall bias • Anchoring bias • Inaccurate covariation detection • Distortions due to plausibility

14. Seeing order in randomness Postgraduate Course We are predisposed to see order, pattern and causal relations in the world. Patternicity: The tendency to find meaningful patterns in both meaningful and meaningless noise.

15. Seeing order in randomness Postgraduate Course We are patern seeking primates: association learning

24. Points of impact of V-1 bombs in London Postgraduate Course

25. Points of impact of V-1 bombs in London Postgraduate Course

26. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course • A Type I error or a false positive, is believing a pattern is real when it is not (finding a non existent pattern) • A Type II error or a false negative, is not believing a pattern is real when it is (not recognizing a real pattern) Dr. Michael Shermer (Director of the Skeptics Society)

27. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course • A Type I error or a false positive: believe that the rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator when it is just the wind (low cost)

28. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course • A Type II error or a false negative: believe that the rustle in the grass is just the wind when it is a dangerous predator (high cost)

29. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course Pattern detection problem Assessing the difference between a Type I and Type II error is highly problematic (especially in split second ‘life and death’ situations), so the default position is to assume all patterns are real.

30. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course Jennifer Whitson, University of Texas Austin, corporate environments

31. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course Erroneous beliefs plaque both experienced professionals and less informed laypeople alike. stress peptic ulcer

32. Oct 2005 Peptic ulcer – an infectious disease! This year's Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine goes to Barry Marshall and Robin Warren, who with tenacity and a prepared mind challenged prevailing dogmas. By using technologies generally available (fibre endoscopy, silver staining of histological sections and culture techniques for microaerophilic bacteria), they made an irrefutable case that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori is causing disease. By culturing the bacteria they made them amenable to scientific study. In 1982, when this bacterium was discovered by Marshall and Warren, stress and lifestyle were considered the major causes of peptic ulcer disease. It is now firmly established that Helicobacter pylori causes more then 90% of duodenal ulcers. The link between Helicobacter pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease has been established through studies of human volunteers, antibiotic treatment studies and epidemiological studies.

33. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course Doctors, teachers, lawyers and managers hold many erroneous beliefs, not because they are ignorant or stupid, but because they seem to be the most sensible conclusion consistent with the available evidence. They hold such beliefs because they seem to be the irresistible products of their own professional experience. They are the products, not of irrationality, but of flawed rationality

34. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course • Seeing order in randomness • Mental corner cutting • Misinterpretation of incomplete data • Halo effect • False consensus effect • Reinterpreting evidence • Group think • Confirmation bias • Authority bias • In-group bias • Recall bias • Anchoring bias • Inaccurate covariation detection • Distortions due to plausibility

35. Group think: management fads Postgraduate Course The nearly-forgotten fads: • Scientific Management/Taylorism • Business Process Reengineering • Management by results • Excellence • Total Quality Management • Learning Organizations • Knowledge Management

36. Group think: management fads Postgraduate Course The fads that haven’t been forgotten (yet): • Talent management • Management development • Executive coaching • Emotional intelligence • Employee engagement • Knowledge management • Myers Briggs Type Indicator • Belbin Team Roles

37. Group think: management fads Postgraduate Course “And there we see the power of any big managerial idea (or fad). It may be smart, like quality, or stupid, like conglomeration. Either way, if everybody's doing it, the pressure to do it too is immense. If it turns out to be smart, great. If it turns out to be stupid, well, you were in good company and most likely ended up no worse off than your competitors. Your company's board consists mostly of CEOs who were probably doing it at their companies. How mad can they get?

38. Group think: management fads Postgraduate Course The true value of conventional management wisdom is not that it's wise or dumb, but that it's conventional. It makes one of the hardest jobs in the world, managing an organization, a little easier. By following it, managers everywhere see a way to drag their sorry behinds through another quarter without getting fired. And isn't that, really, what it's all about?” (Colvin, 2004, Fortune)

39. Postgraduate Course So?

40. Errors and Biases of Human Judgment Postgraduate Course • Managers seem to be extremely good at generating ideas, theories, and explanations that have the ring of plausibility. They may be relatively deficient, however, in evaluating and testing those ideas once they are formed. • This requires that we think critically about experience, question our assumptions, and challenge what we think we know • (Show me the evidence!)

41. Postgraduate Course Reason 2: De ‘buitenwereld’ wordt steeds kritischer

42. Probleem2: kritischegeluiden Postgraduate Course “Managers maken Nederland ziek ... Steeds meer vakmensen (zoals docenten, verpleegkundigen, artsen) hebben het gevoel dat ze worden aangestuurd door managers die van het vak geen verstand hebben maar wel de dienst uitmaken.” Ad Verbrugge

43. Probleem2: kritischegeluiden Postgraduate Course “Of het nu gaatomeenziekenhuis of eendropfabriek, teveel managers hebben de pretentiedatzealleskunnenmanagenzonderook maar teletten op de inhoud van het werk. Het zijnfiguren die alseenvlo van de ene "uitdaging" naar de anderespringen, een spoor van verbittering en vernielingachterzichlatend.” Geert Mak

44. Probleem2: kritischegeluiden Postgraduate Course “Nog meer managers, nog meer reorganisaties, nog meer power point-presentaties, nog meer holle retoriek over topprestaties en topkwaliteit. De groeiende korst van nepfuncties die onze bedrijven, scholen en andere organisaties nutteloos belasten wordt almaar dikker .” Dorien Pessers

45. Brede maatschappelijke ontwikkeling Postgraduate Course

46. Brede maatschappelijke ontwikkeling Postgraduate Course “Waar de overheid, de dokter, de pedagoog en de manager vroeger een eenvoudig beroep op hun autoriteit konden doen, zullen zij nu met getallen en statistiek hun gelijk moeten aantonen.”

47. Brede maatschappelijke ontwikkeling Postgraduate Course • Evidence basedmedicine • Evidence basededucation • Evidence basedcriminology • Evidence basedsocialwelware • Evidence based management?

48. Postgraduate Course Evidence based management: How does it look like in practice?

49. Four sources

50. JAMA, 1992