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Exploring Network Externalities in Hawala Exchanges: Trust, Terrorism, and Economic Implications

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  1. Network Externalities in Hawala Exchanges Anamaria Berea Department for Computational Social Science Center for Social Complexity at Krasnow Institute for Advanced Studies George Mason University

  2. Introduction • What is hawala? – exchange mechanism self-enforced by trust and reputation • Similar to Western Union • Mostly associated with certain foreign remittances • No data - social network analysis • Kuran, 2004: specific informal Islamic institutions lead to lock-in situations • Other business associated with the money transfer practice

  3. Hawala Mechanism

  4. Purpose of this research • A methodological proposal on the empirical observations • Common-pooling SNA techniques with nested game theory • Not-empirically exhaustive, but empirical dataset mapping

  5. Method of Analysis 1. Building the datasets by proxies and informational conjectures: - proxy: the Pakistani players in major international business (hawaladars network; Pakistan vs. Afghanistan) - proxy: the pool of countries under scrutiny for remittances by Interpol and UN frozen assets - 3 files: personal ties, business ties and locations (mini-clusters)

  6. Method of Analysis 2. Analyzing the datasets: - nested game hypothesis (Tsebelis, 1991) – correlation matrix - shows the network externalities

  7. Results and Findings

  8. Ego Networks in Terrorism

  9. Betwenness Centrality for Location

  10. The associated businesses network

  11. Terrorism Periphery and Lock-in Hypothesis

  12. MDS with geodesic distances

  13. Degree centrality in the correlation matrix

  14. Discussion • Network externalities: drugs, gold, Dubai and Mumbai • Lock-in emergence: terrorism in NWFP • High Centrality Measures for ObL, Dawood Ibrahim and TTP • This method of analysis by proxies and game theory validates conceptual and theoretical publications

  15. Thank you! • Questions?

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