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Seasonal Forecast for Summer 2013 for Hong Kong

Seasonal Forecast for Summer 2013 for Hong Kong. 9 Apr 2013, FOCRAII, Beijing H W Tong Hong Kong Observatory . Seasonal Forecast at HKO . Temperature and rainfall Most (or two most) likely category No. of TC entering the 500 km range of Hong Kong (for internal use only).

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Seasonal Forecast for Summer 2013 for Hong Kong

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  1. Seasonal Forecast for Summer 2013 for Hong Kong 9 Apr 2013, FOCRAII, Beijing H W Tong Hong Kong Observatory

  2. Seasonal Forecast at HKO • Temperature and rainfall • Most (or two most) likely category • No. of TC entering the 500 km range of Hong Kong (for internal use only)

  3. Verification- JJA 2012

  4. Review of 2012 JJA forecast Jun 2012 was well forecast However, Aug 2012 was expectedly dry

  5. August 2012

  6. Aug 2012 – CFSv2 & JMA-CGCM vs actual MSLP JMA-CGCM CFSv2 Actual

  7. Methodology • El Niño/La Nina consideration • Large-scale circulation pattern forecast by major centers (CFSv2, JMA-CGCM, ECMWF) • Forecasts from major centers • Statistical downscaling (from NCEP CFSv2) • Simple regression • Principle component regression

  8. ENSO Status Neutral in JJA

  9. Large-scale circulation pattern

  10. 500Z (upper) & MSLP (lower)  Jun 2013 NCEP JMA ECMWF(non-normalized)

  11. 850 Wind (upper) & Temp (lower)  Jun 2013 NCEP JMA ECMWF (non-normalized)

  12. 500Z (upper) & MSLP (lower)  Jul 2013 NCEP JMA ECMWF(non-normalized)

  13. 850 Wind (upper) & Temp (lower)  Jul 2013 NCEP JMA ECMWF (non-normalized)

  14. 500Z (upper) & MSLP (lower)  Aug 2013 ECMWF(non-normalized) NCEP JMA

  15. 850 Wind (upper) & Temp (lower)  Aug 2013 NCEP JMA ECMWF (non-normalized)

  16. Short summary Above normal temperature ? Below normal rainfall ?

  17. Statistical downscaling Normal to warm Normal to dry

  18. JJA temperature forecasts from major centers Normal to above normal

  19. JJA rainfall forecasts from major centers Normal to dry 19

  20. Number of tropical cyclones entering the 500 km range of Hong Kong HK

  21. Normal 21

  22. Statistical downscaling 2-3 TC in JJA, near normal

  23. Preliminary summer forecast for Hong Kong 2013

  24. Thanks

  25. ECMWF

  26. No of TC in El Nino/La Nina/Neutral years

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