1 / 2

Why?

Why?. Initial predictions will be lousy and probably worse than empirical models. BUT, one needs to start somewhere. Terrestrial weather predictions were laughable when they started but have now reached maturity. From: Kalnay, 2003. Validation.

talasi
Télécharger la présentation

Why?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Why? • Initial predictions will be lousy and probably worse than empirical models. • BUT, one needs to start somewhere. Terrestrial weather predictions were laughable when they started but have now reached maturity. From: Kalnay, 2003

  2. Validation • The process of modelers providing the forecasts for validation has a number of advantages: • No need for other institutions to install and “learn” the model. • No need to adhere to strict standards before model is validated (pitfall in traditional approach). • Provides “blind study” for modelers who do not know who might scrutinize their output. • No need for the modelers to deal with validation data. • BUT, modelers need to be involved  funding, in order to get here: From: Kalnay, 2003

More Related