Auburn Information Assurance Laboratory J. A. “Drew” Hamilton, Jr., Ph.D. Director, Information Assurance Laboratoryand Associate Professor Computer Science & Software Engineering FAX: (334) 844-6329 firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com 107 Dunstan Hall Auburn University, AL 36849-5347 http://www.eng.auburn.edu/users/hamilton
Outline • Housekeeping • What is simulation and why should you care? • A brief history of simulation • Clausewitz • Rand • Hermann Kahn • How well are we doing? • First Gulf War • What is SCS? • Conclusions.
Branding: Using the SCS Name • In order to conduct a conference in cooperation with SCS, there procedures to follow: • Written, signed agreement that SCS bears no financial responsibility for the conference signed by the signature authority for the conference. • SCS members are allowed to register for the conference at the organizing groups’ member rate (if any). • Conference papers are made available to SCS to publish in our electronic archives. • Recommendation from Senior VP • Approval Authority, President* • Requests from MISS Centers, M&S Net Members approved by Senior VP
Fallout • Tucker rule on return on investment (ROI): • If assets = 0 and return = $1.00, then ROI • New SCS editor to be hired next week. • Membership & Conference services to be outsourced. • Next election scheduled Spring 2009. • New MISS Charter to be drafted.
SCS is Staying Independent in San Diego Now Headquartered inSan Diego for more than 50 years. Avoided Moving to Arlington, affiliating with NDIA Close to Disneyland: The happiest place on Earth Close to the Pentagon: The unhappiest place on Earth
SpringSim 2008 –Ottawa, Canada • Who: Hassan Rajaei, Conference Chair firstname.lastname@example.org • When: April 13 – 16, 2008 • Where: Ottawa, Canada • Vice Chair & Featured Musical Talent:Gabriel Wainer
SummerSim 2008 – Edinburgh, Scotland • Who: Bill Waite, Conference Chair BWaite@aegistg.com • When: June 16 – 19, 2008 • Where: University of EdinburghWhat: 1. Summer Computer Simulation Conference2. International Symposium on Performance Evaluation of Computer & Telecommunication Systems
Quotations from Clausewitz • “Frequent periods of inaction in war remove it further from the absolute, and make it still more a calculation of probabilities.” • “Therefore, the element of chance only is wanting to make of war a game, and in that element it is least of all deficient.” Icosahedron
What is a model? 1. The missile launches out of its silo by firing its1st stage boost motor (A).2. ~60 sec.s after launch, 1st stage drops off & 2nd stage motor (B) ignites. Themissile shroud is ejected.3. ~120 seconds afterlaunch, the 3rd stage motor (C) ignites and separates from the 2nd stage.4. About 180 seconds after launch, 3rd stage thrust terminates and the Post-Boost Vehicle (D) separates from the rocket.5. Post-Boost Vehicle maneuvers itself & preps re-entry veh. (RV) deployment.6. The RVs, as well as decoys and chaff, are deployed during backaway.7. The RVs & chaff re-enter the atmosphere at high speeds & are armed in flight.8. The nuclear warheads detonate, either as air bursts or ground bursts.9. Life is good in a commie-free world.
What is Simulation? • A model is an abstraction of a system (or system of systems). • When we exercise the model with external stimuli e.g. script, scenario, collected data we are running a simulation.
Early Uses of Simulation • On Thermonuclear War by Hermann Khan (1960-61) • 10 distinct post WW III scenarios • Based on game theory • Limited data collection opportunities
Thermopylae (480 B.C.) • How do you model a force mismatch? • Leonidas sends bulk of force of 4000 away • ~300 heavily armored Spartans, ~400 Corinthians and ~400 Thebans vs. ~10,000 “Immortals,” the Persian royal bodyguard The fox knows many tricks; the hedgehog, just one good one. Archilochus of Paros • “Go tell the Spartans, O stranger passing by, that here, obedient to her laws we lie.”
Estimates, 1st & 2nd Gulf Wars 1st Gulf War • Best Estimate: COL T. N. Dupuy, USA (ret.) – 10,000 KIA • Actual Casualties: 378 KIA • Edward N. Luttwak • Demonstrated models could be manipulated to achieve any result. 2nd Gulf War (Testimony to US Senate Feb. 2003) • GEN. SHINSEKI: “I would say that what's been mobilized to this point -- something on the order of several hundred thousand soldiers are probably, you know, a figure that would be required. We're talking about post-hostilities control over a piece of geography that's fairly significant, with the kinds of ethnic tensions that could lead to other problems. And so it takes a significant ground- force presence to maintain a safe and secure environment, to ensure that people are fed, that water is distributed, all the normal responsibilities that go along with administering a situation like this.” • DEPSECDEF Response: “Wildly off the mark.”
Simulation in T & E • Minuteman > 250 test launches • Polaris > 140 test launches • Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) < 10 test launches
What is SCS?www.scs.org Membership • Fellows • Life Members • Senior Members • Members • Student Members The International, multidisciplinary forum dedicated to applications, development, education, and research in modeling and simulation Conferences Publications Education
Who is SCS? • Oldest M&S Society in the World (founded in 1952) • Founded by a Navy research scientist based in San Diego • An international professional society • A society that is heavily oriented on peer-reviewed research • A society searching for relevance to industry and government • Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield: Who does simulation?
IPB: Who Does Simulation in the USA? • Department of Defense • Dialect translation • Branch & bound • Walt Disney Corp. • Combat holographs
Affiliation: Predicted Process Step 1 DueDiligence Step 3NDIAAffiliation Step 2 BusinessCase
Affiliation: Actual Process Step 1 DueDiligence Step 2 BusinessCase Step 3Readyto Assimilate
An Optometrist’s Insight • Which is better? This? Or this?
Advantages of Marketing This? Or this?
Conclusions Looking to the Future • Everyone working in M&S, at least on the R&D side knows that the M&S field suffers from fragmentation. • The vision is the unification of the M&S community with a single provider of training and education, research and development, peer reviewed publications, standards and industrial groups. • Going beyond what is best for SCS, -- this is clearly best for the M&S Community. • The San Diego Simulation Conference.