The Impact of the Economic Downturn on the Delivery of Official Statistics

1. The Impact of the Economic Downturn on the Delivery of Official Statistics Sonia M. Jackson Director General Statistical Institute of Jamaica

2. Overview of the Presentation • Manifestation of the global crisis • The impact of the crisis on the Jamaican economy • The implications for the NSOs • Are the NSOs able to respond to the crisis based on the current internal structure & culture, the demand for new and faster data sets and the other national imperatives? • An Action Plan that examines the issues presented • Conclusion STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

3. Global Economic Crisis – Manifestation of the Crisis • Collapse of major financial institutions • Bearish stock markets – • Lowest Dow Jones Index – USA • Russia shutting down their biggest stock market for two days • European & Asian Stock markets recorded sharp declines • The Japanese Economy, one of the largest in the world, declined • Loss of confidence in the financial system STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

4. Global Economic Crisis – Impact on the US Economy • Significant decline in wealth; • GDP growth in the US fell to 1.1 per cent in 2008; • US unemployment rate increased to 7.2 per cent in December 2008. Total job losses for 2008 was 2.6 million. • Consumer confidence and spending plummeted; STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

5. Impact on the Jamaican Economy • Deteriorating external merchandise trade balance will impact balance of payments • Approximately 89% of exports are to the USA • Access to loans for productive sector is at higher rates • Manufacturers unable to obtain usual 90 day credit facilities for raw material • Reduction in tourists arrivals & reduced spending by tourists • Reduction in remittance inflows by approx. 2-3% in 2008 - projected growth rate was 8 – 10% STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

6. Impact on the Jamaican Economy • Closure of the bauxite production plants • Increased demand for foreign exchange • Increased challenges in accessing capital on the international market to finance budget deficit • Increased difficulties in attracting foreign investment capital • Net results – projected slowing down of the economy – GDP 1st quarter results: -3.1% STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

7. Implications for the NSOs of the Caribbean • Reduced funding to the NSO; • The overall implications for the delivery of products/services; • The increased demand for more and varied information at faster rates with higher degrees of accuracy; • The need for standardization & harmonization of definitions & concepts at the national level, at the regional level as well at the international level; • The need to determine the capacity of the NSO and the NSS to deliver and maintain minimum data sets for monitoring the economy, society and the environment. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

8. Results of Needs Assessment Survey – increased frequency Census Data 5 yrs 72% 10 yrs 28% 1Crime/Security; Tourism; Community/Dev. Planning; Geography/GIS; etc. 2Source – Jamaica Needs Assessment Survey 2008 STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

9. Results of Needs Assessment Survey – concerns about data quality Source – Jamaica Needs Assessment Survey 2008 STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

10. Internal Organization of the NSO • The ability of the NSO to carry out its mandate examining: • the organizational structure & culture, • the legislative framework, • autonomy & the adequacy of funding, • the support and commitment from Government • other operational issues, e.g. data collection, data sharing facilities, protection of confidentiality • risk management & business continuity • Adequacy of staff – in numbers and skills sets • Shortage of specialist skills – e.g. sampling experts • The costs of developing & retaining trained staff STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

11. Challenges with data collection • Costs – particularly in household surveys • The impact of crime & violence • Environmental hazards-particularly in the hurricane seasons • Lack of a data culture • Lack of trust of the Government & its Agencies • Low response to data requests – mainly enterprise surveys STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

12. Development Priorities Statistical information is required to support: • Monitoring & reporting on the MDGs & other IADGs • Enabling the CSME- implementing the CARICOM Regional Statistics Work Programme (RSWP) • Internal development strategies – Trinidad – Vision 2020 ; Jamaica – Vision 2030 STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

13. New Areas of Work These topics have been included in the RSWP but not fully implemented: • Informal sector – employment & contribution to the GDP • ICT statistics & impact on development • Coordination of the NSS to include things such as:- a common code of ethics; common standards; metadata for all official statistics • New indices – housing, construction, entertainment & sports, etc. • Agriculture statistics – volume & price • food security & the implications for increased poverty levels • Imports of food vis-á-vis local production, comparative costs & the impact on the employment • Modernization of existing series – National Accounts, CPI, etc STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

14. The Action Plan • Each country needs to establish its own priority for data monitoring & reporting on national imperatives; • The NSO needs to evaluate those needs and assess the financial and other resources required to satisfy those needs and lobby for them; • The use of technology to improve collection, processing & analysis of data – costs of implementation needs to be identified; • There will be the need to identify new sources of funding – through establishing new relationships; • Operational efficiencies have to be improved; STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

15. The Action Plancont’d • Skills gaps need to be identified & filled – training, outsourcing & technical assistance: • Areas of training should include – general management, financial management, project management, specific statistical areas to fill gaps identified • Outsourcing would include contracting the skills for short term & contracting out the delivery of some products to other agencies/NSO when not feasible or sustainable • Technical assistance to offices is critical to development process but it must be grounded in capacity building • New data sources need to be identified to fill the gaps arising out of “no and/or low response” to data requests: • The use of administrative data sets; these have to be evaluated and validated STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

16. The Action Plancont’d • Overall service delivery needs to be modernized – organizational culture needs to be changed from “supply driven” to being “customer centric”; • Review of legal framework – and make recommendations for amendments where necessary; STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

17. The Action Plancont’d • Leading the establishment of the coordination mechanism for the development of the NSS through providing assistance to the MDAs in strengthening their capacity to provide official statistics • Establishing data sharing mechanisms that facilitate a unified approach to data management, the submission of data within the country to the NSO and from the NSO to the regional & international organizations • The central role of CARICOM in compiling & harmonizing the statistics from the countries of the region, acting as a repository of the data & data dissemination & monitoring the effectiveness of the CSME cannot be overlooked STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

18. CONCLUSION • It is not business as usual!! With limited financial & other resources, the NSOs are going to find the operating environment to be very challenging; • The Head of the NSO will have to be: • a leader who will direct the operations into new areas – previously uncharted waters • A good manager – to manage scarce & limited resources to get maximum returns • A good communicator – in order to expand his/her relationships and contacts • Some old traditions should be reviewed – it may become necessary to separate the managerial/leadership functions from the technical aspects of the CEO’s job function; STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

19. CONCLUSION cont’d • The CEO must be prepared for the new environment-his/her skill sets must include management expertise & training as prerequisites of the job. Management training needs to be provided to Senior Statisticians in preparation as a necessary requirement for upward mobility; • The changes that are necessary must be implemented in the shortest time possible; • The use of technology will facilitate speedier collection and processing of data but the initial and continuing investments have to be made; • The support and commitment of the Government to the process of developing the NSO and the NSS is critical to their viability and sustainability. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA

20. Thank you !!. STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA