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Aim of Methodology

The “Impact Pathway Approach” – so called, “ExternE Methodology” to Estimate Impacts and External Costs. Application in North Africa Methodology, Limits, Exemplary Results Philipp PREISS IER, Universität Stuttgart. Presentation Outline. Aim of Methodology

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Aim of Methodology

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  1. The “Impact Pathway Approach” – so called, “ExternE Methodology” to Estimate Impacts and External Costs.Application in North Africa Methodology, Limits, Exemplary Results Philipp PREISS IER, Universität Stuttgart

  2. PresentationOutline • Aim of Methodology • Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1: Quantification of Impacts • Impacts Included • Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach – Part 2: Quantification of Costs • Assessment of Climate Change • Example Results – Uncertainty – Range of Results • Applications of the Results • Summary

  3. Aim of the ExternE methodology:  helps to take into account all externalities in a consistent way when making decisions • Investment decisions • Technology Assessment (subsidies, research support) • Consumer decisions (e.g. by adjusting prices, by internalisation of external costs) • Cost-benefit analyses, esp. for environmental and health regulation • Green accounting

  4. Basic principles • Pressures, (e.g. emissions of substances to environmental media) have to be estimated • 2) Assessment of effects/impacts (e.g. health risk), of the pressures (e.g. emissions of pollutants) •  relation between pressure and impact is in general not linear and •  impacts depend on time and site of pressure •  “Bottom-up approach” needed for the complex pathways: the ‘Impact Pathway Approach’ (IPA)

  5. Physical Impacts Pollutant / Noise Emission Transport and Chemical Transformation Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1 Differences ofPhysical Impacts Calculation is made twice: with and without project!

  6. Background Concentration of Prim. PM2.5 [µg/m3] Additional Emission of 1000 t PPM2.5 in Egypt

  7. Delta Conc. of PPM2.5 [µg/m3]

  8. Population Distribution

  9. Population*Delta Conc.  Accumulated Exposure

  10. Quantification of Impacts and Costs relation between pressure and impact Concentration Response Function (CRF): Example: Additional Years of Life Lost = 6.5 · 10-5· Dconc. PPM2.5 ·Population Number of Years of Life Lost [YOLL] due to 1000 ton emission of fine dust PPM2.5 in Egypt in Egypt = 748 in the Northern Hemisphere = 53 in Western Europe < 0.5

  11. YOLL  Years of Life Lost due to 1000 t PPM2.5

  12. Impacts Included (I) : PM2.5, PMco

  13. Impacts Included (II)

  14. Differences of Physical Impacts Pollutant/Noise Emission Transport and Chemical Transformation Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1 Calculation is made twice: with and without project!

  15. Basic Approach of NEEDS/ExternE Assessment of impacts is based on the (measured) preferences of the affected and well-informed population

  16. Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach – Part 2: Quantification of Costs Preferences are expressed, and effects are transformed into monetary units: - allows transfer of values, - units are conceivable, - direct use of results in CBA and for internalising via taxes possible. (…however, e.g. ‘utility points’ would give the same ranking).

  17. Differences of Physical Impacts Pollutant/Noise Emission Transport and Chemical Transformation MonetaryValuation Impact Pathway Approach – Part 2 Calculation is made twice: with and without project!

  18. Monetary Valuation

  19. Quantification of Costs Concentration Response Function: Additional Years of Life Lost = 6.5 · 10-5· Dconc. PPM2.5 · Population Quantified number of additional Years of Life Lost due to one year operation : 748 YOLL Monetary value: 40000 Euro2005per Year of Life Lost Damage costs per year:748 YOLL * 40000 Euro per YOLL = 29.2 Million Euro2005

  20. Valuation methods for non-market goods Revealed Preference behaviour (shown in the past) Stated Preference surveys • Indirect valuation • assesses costs or efforts that can be linked to the non-market good • Hedonic Price Method • Averting Behavior Method • Travel Cost Method • Contingent Behavior Method • Past behaviour of public decision makers • Direct valuation • Contingent Valuation • Method (CVM) • Attribute Based Choice • Modeling (ABCM) • Participatory approaches • Surveys for preferences of public decision makers

  21. Assessment of Climate Change I. Marginal Damage Costs • Includes the following categories: • agriculture • forestry • sea level rise • cardiovascular and respiratory disorders related to cold and heat stress • malaria • dengue fever • schistosomiasis • diarrhoea • energy consumption • water resources and • unmanaged ecosystems • Time horizon till 2300

  22. Assessment of Climate Change I. Marginal Damage Costs "Average, 1% trimmed“, "1% PRTP“ , “World Average Equity Weighting”

  23. Assessment of Climate Change II. Marginal Avoidance Costs "500 ppm CO2 “, “technological progress“ , “certificates-emission dealing”

  24. Some exemplary results of applying the ExternE tools EcoSenseWebThe results of the ExternE research are the functions and tools that can be applied to answer individual questions!Results of applying the tools depend on scenario, site, time and technology!

  25. Possibly important effects that are not (yet) included: • Visual intrusion • Biodiversity loss (local, however included in Environmental Impact Study) • Risk of nuclear proliferation and terrorism • Risk aversion resp. treatment of Damocles risks

  26. Quantified External Costs [Euro-Cent / kWh] of a Coal Fired Power Station (steam turbine)

  27. External Costs of Different Technologies [Euro-Cent / kWh] 19 Euro/t CO2, YOLLchronic = 40000 Euro Sites in Germany; 2010 technologies!

  28. 6 5 4 External Costs [Euro-Cent / kWh] 3 2 1 0 WEC Hydro PWR, PV sc-Si Natural ORC- PAFC Lignite, Coal, Coal PFB Offshore reproc gas-CC HKW IGCC IGCC Health impacts Crops Material Climate change

  29. External Costs of Power Stations [Euro-Cent / kWh]Assuming 50 Euro/t CO2

  30. Quantification of Externalities of Heat SupplyCB=condensing boiler, MFH=multi family house, OFM=one family house

  31. External Costs [Euro / ton] of Emission ResultsEurope  ResultsNorth Africa

  32. Applications of the IPA/ExternE Results European Union: Energy: justification for promoting and subsidizing renewable energy; recommended cap on subsidies for renewables Transport: cost-benefit analysis mandatory for all major infrastructure projects; planned to levy tolls according to infrastructure and external costs Environmental Protection: Cost-benefit analysis for all recently implemented directives for Air Pollution Control: e.g. Non-Hazardeous Waste Incineration Directive, Large Combustion Plant Directive, National Emissions Ceilings Directive, Daughter Directives to Air Quality Directive: ozone, CO and benzene UN: cost-benefit analysis for the UN/ECE multi-pollutant multi-effect protocol

  33. Summary • The ExternE methodology estimates effects of technologies for energy conversion and assesses them based on preferences of the effected population for a large number of impact pathways. • The methodology is already widely used for decision aid in the fields of energy conversion, transport and environmental protection. • Gaps and uncertainties exist, however will be more and more reduced due to ongoing research (e.g. on dispersion models for Africa, pathways involving toxic substances, heavy metals, biodiversity, water and soil contamination…) • More information ExternE: www.ExternE.info • Tool EcoSenseWeb: www.EcoSenseWeb.ier.uni-stuttgart.de

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