Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Biodiversity Synthesis Dr. Walter Reid, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

1. Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentBiodiversity SynthesisDr. Walter Reid, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

2. Largest assessment ever undertaken of biodiversity and the health of ecosystems • Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries; extensive peer review • Consensus of the world’s scientists – Similar to IPCC • Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000 • Information requested by governments through the Convention on Biological Diversity as well as 3 other international conventions

3. Global Assessment with information from 33 sub-global assessments

4. Key concepts: Biodiversity • The variability among living organisms from all sources. This includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems

5. Key concepts: Ecosystem Services Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems MA assessed the condition of 24 ecosystem services

6. Human Well-being Indirect Drivers Ecosystem Services Direct Drivers Examined the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being • Indirect Drivers of Change • Demographic • Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework) • Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework) • Science and Technology • Cultural and Religious • Human Well-being and • Poverty Reduction • Basic material for a good life • Health • Good Social Relations • Security • Freedom of choice and action • Direct Drivers of Change • Changes in land use • Species introduction or removal • Technology adaptation and use • External inputs (e.g., irrigation) • Resource consumption • Climate change • Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes) Life on Earth: Biodiversity

7. Scenarios Responses Condition and Trends • Given plausible changes in primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well-being? • What can we do to enhance well-being and conserve ecosystems? • What is the current condition and historical trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services? • What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being? Four Working Groups Sub-Global • All of the above, at regional, national, local scales

8. MA Scenarios • Not predictions – scenarios are plausible futures • Both quantitative models and qualitative analysis used in scenario development

9. Finding • Human actions are fundamentally, and to a significant extent irreversibly, changing the diversity of life on Earth, and most of these changes represent a loss of biodiversity. • Changes in important components of biological diversity were more rapid in the past 50 years than at any time in human history. Projections and scenarios indicate that these rates will continue, or accelerate, in the future.

10. Unprecedented change: Ecosystems • More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850. • 20% of the world’s coral reefs were lost and 20% degraded in the last several decades • 35% of mangrove area has been lost in the last several decades • Amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960 Cultivated Systems in 2000 cover 25% of Earth’s terrestrial surface

11. Unprecedented change: Ecosystems • More than two thirds of the area of two biomes and more than half of the area of four others had been converted by 1990 • Further 10–20% loss of grassland and forestland by 2050

12. Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversity • Distribution of species is becoming more homogenous • Population size or range (or both) of the majority of species across a range of taxonomic groups is declining

13. Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversity • Current extinction rate as much as 1,000 times higher than background rates. • 10% to 50% of mammals, birds, amphibians, conifers, and cycads are threatened with extinction • Expect loss of roughly 10–15% of plant species as a result of habitat loss over the period 1970–2050 in the MA scenarios

14. Degradation and unsustainable use of ecosystem services • Approximately 60% (15 out of 24) of the ecosystem services evaluated in this assessment are being degraded or used unsustainably Degraded Capture fisheries Wild foods Wood fuel Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh Water Air quality regulation Regional and local climate regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Pest regulation Pollination Natural Hazard regulation Spiritual and religious values Aesthetic values Enhanced Crops Livestock Aquaculture Carbon sequestration (in last 50 yrs)

15. Finding • The drivers of biodiversity loss and the drivers of changes in ecosystem services are either steady, show no evidence of declining over time, or are increasing in intensity

16. Changes in direct drivers:Nutrient Loading • Since 1960: • Flows of biologically available nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems doubled • Flows of phosphorus tripled • > 50% of all the synthetic nitrogen fertilizer ever used has been used since 1985 Human-produced Reactive Nitrogen Humans produce as much biologically available N as all natural pathways and this may grow a further 65% by 2050

17. Changes in direct drivers:Climate Change • By the end of the century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally • Harm to biodiversity will grow worldwide with increasing rates of change in climate and increasing absolute amounts of change Climate Change

18. Visit www.MAweb.org and Island Press • Website • All MA reports available to download • General synthesis and Board statement now available • Biodiversity synthesis, Desertification synthesis, Wetlands synthesis, Business and Industry synthesis available over next 3-4 months • Information on sub-global assessments • Access to core data • MA ‘outreach’ kit including PowerPoint slides • Island Press • MA Technical Assessment Volumes available September 2005 • State and Trends • Scenarios • Multi-Scale Assessments • Responses