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Luis Biedma (Eurostat)

COMPILATION OF EUROPEAN CHAINED LINKED QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS. Luis Biedma (Eurostat). Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly National Accounts Luxembourg, 15 February 2007. Eurostat - Unit C2 National Accounts - production. Calculation of Annual Accounts (1).

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Luis Biedma (Eurostat)

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  1. COMPILATION OF EUROPEAN CHAINED LINKED QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Luis Biedma (Eurostat) Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly National Accounts Luxembourg, 15 February 2007 Eurostat - Unit C2National Accounts - production

  2. Calculation of Annual Accounts (1) EU aggregates are obtained by the sum of Member States data at Current Prices (CUP) and Previous Year Prices (PYP). Eurostat needs annual data for all variables, periods and evaluations for which EU aggregates are calculated. Missing data are filled with imputations Breaks (FISIM, benchmark…) corrected If PYP are not available they are derived using: CLV(t)× deflator(t-1)CLV= Chained Level Volumes or KP(t)× deflator (t-1) KP= Constant Prices Eurostat - Unit C2National Accounts - production

  3. Calculation of Annual Accounts (2) Balancing is performed on CUP and PYP. Balancing approach differs according to the table: Residual variable: Change in Inventories Proportional approach: Gross Value Added EU aggregates CLVs are derived from CUP and PYP: CLV2000= CUP2000 CVL(t+1) =CLV(t) × PYP(t+1) / CUPt Eurostat - Unit C2National Accounts - production

  4. Calculation of Annual Accounts (3) Last step is deriving Working Day Adjusted Annuals For Member States for which we know ∑jQSW≠ ∑jQN QSW= Quarterly seasonal and working day adjusted QN =Quarterly raw Working Day factors (WDf) = ∑jQSW-CUP(t,j) / ∑jQN-CUP(t,j) and/or = ∑jQSW-CLV(t,j) / ∑jQN-CLV(t,j) Calculation of Annual Working Day Adjusted (AWA) AWA(t)=ANA(t)× WDf(t) Derive PYP. Sum Member States CUP and PYP to obtain EU aggregates. Re-balance CUP and PYP. Derive CLV for EU aggregates. Eurostat - Unit C2National Accounts - production

  5. Calculation of Quarterly Accounts (1) Eurostat uses the indirect approach to calculate seasonal and working day adjusted EU aggregates Same procedure is applied to calculate both QN and QSW Build a quarterly indicator on CUP and PYP Break correction Retropolation PYP(t) =CLV(t)× annual (ANA or AWA)deflator(t-1) Calculate indicator based on sum of available (all periods) country data Univariate estimation of quarterly series using indicator plus multivariate adjustment Results fulfill time and accountancy constrains (CUP and PYP) Eurostat - Unit C2National Accounts - production

  6. Calculation of Quarterly Accounts (2) Chaining: Derive CLV from CUP and PYP obtained in the previous step We will need in addition to CUP and PYP: - Annual average at current prices ACUP(t)= Σj CUP(t,j)/4 - Same year’s prices for the first year SYP(t,j) = CLV (t,j)× deflator (t) Eurostat - Unit C2National Accounts - production

  7. Calculation of Quarterly Accounts (3) Chaining Construct the annual average at current prices ACUP(t)=∑jCUP(t,j)/4 Calculate growth rates gr(t,j)=PYP(t,j)/ACUP(t-1) Construct a chain-linked index (CLI), 2000=100 Derive CLVs from the index CVL(t,j)=CLI(t,j)× ACUP2000 Eurostat - Unit C2National Accounts - production

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