The Spatial Theory of Electoral Competition

1. The Spatial Theory of Electoral Competition Melvin J. Hinich

2. The spatial theory of electoral competition developed by Davis and Hinich (1966) rests on the assumption that voter choices are functions of the squared Euclidean distance between a voter’s position in a political space and the positions of the candidates (or parties) standing for election.

3. Euclidean Distance Model Suppose that there are N observers and M targets. Each observer at position reports the squared Euclidean distance to the targets at locations

4. Latent Ideological Space 1 Issue positions cluster: If I know what you think on defense and environmental policy, I can guess what you think of school lunch subsidies. 2 Shared meaning: This clustering phenomenon is not purely atomistic, so that ideological positions such as “liberal” and “conservative” have similar meanings to different people. 3 Constraint: If the effective space of political conflict is “ideological” in the sense above , the strategies of candidates (and hence the choices for voters) in the policy space are highly constrained.

7. 2006 Private Survey

12. 2001 Survey A nation-wide representative survey of urban population conducted during the chaotic weeks of the second economic crisis of February 2001 1201 face-to-face interviews were conducted in 12 of the 81 provinces of Turkey The survey was run during 2/20 – 3/16 using a random sampling method that represents the nationwide voting age urban population based on the urban population figures of 1997 census data.

15. Basic Independent Variables

16. Vote Intentions for the November 3rd Election • % 29,4 • AKP • % 14,4 • CHP • % 9,9 • GP • % 5,0 • DYP • % 4,1 • MHP • % 3,3 • DEHAP • % 2,4 • ANAP • % 1,5 • SP • % 1,0 • YTP • % 0,7 • DSP • % 0,6 • BBP • % 1,3 • Other • Will not vote • % 1,9 • Will not vote for the • existing parties • % 7,1 • % 8,7 • Undecided • % 8,7 • DK/NA • %0 • %10 • %20 • %30

20. Xenophobia & Political Efficacy • Xenophobia • Foreigners who settle in our country harm our culture. • Foreigners who settle in our country make our chances of finding a job • more difficult • Some should either love Turkey or leave it. • I would not want a foreigner to be my neighbor • Political efficacy • Regular citizens like me have no power for changing political decisions in Turkey for their advantage. • Turkey is being ruled by a small and powerful group. • Whatever I do I don't think I can reach a better position in society

23. Valence Question - Revitalizing the Economy

24. March-2004 survey of nation-wide representative urban population (N=1,232)

26. ● 1st D. 2nd D. Alevis -1.5 -3.8 Non-Alevis +0.3 -1.7

27. Reformist Pro-EU Kurdish Nationalist ● DEHAP ● DSP ● CHP ■ HADEP Prominent Businessman ● YTP ● GP ■ Very religious leader ■ ■ FP ● ANAP ● SP ■ CHP ● MHP ● BBP ● AKP “Left” Secularist “Center” ■ DYP “Right” Pro-Islamist “Periphery” ● DYP ■ MHP ■ DSP Status Quo Reactionary Anti-EU Turkish Nationalist -AKP remains as the only credible party with “centrist” positions and clear pro-EU stance -CHP left the reformist, pro-EU camp as well as its support concerning the protection and advancement of the Kurdish minority rights. CHP seems positioned to exploit anti-EU nationalist rhetoric. -”Right of center” is back into its original anti-EU position. CHP is likely to pull them down on this axis. -Is the Turkish center ready for another business take-over similar to the GP in 2002? ■ 2001 ● 2002 ♦ 2004