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Achievable Penetration Rates

Achievable Penetration Rates. The Pace of Conservation Acquisition April 17, 2009 Conservation Resources Advisory Committee. Outline in Two Parts. Part 1 Revisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions. Part 2 Sensitivity Testing. Based on Comments & Further Thought.

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Achievable Penetration Rates

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  1. Achievable Penetration Rates The Pace of Conservation Acquisition April 17, 2009 Conservation Resources Advisory Committee

  2. Outline in Two Parts • Part 1 • Revisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions • Part 2 • Sensitivity Testing

  3. Based on Comments & Further Thought Revisions: Tamping Down Max Annual Rates

  4. Slowed down two important new measures: From New Measure - Fast to New Measure - Medium Energy Project Management Integrated Plant Energy Management Represent about 20% of industrial savings Revisions: Industrial

  5. Formerly All at “New Measure - Medium” Now: Split by Measure Bundle System Voltage by LDC method at New Measure - Fast System Voltage EOL method at New Measure - Slow Light System Improvements at New Measure - Slow Major System Improvements at New Measure - Slow Revisions: Distribution Efficiency

  6. Measure 30-Mar Previous LPD Package-New LO 20Fast LO Fast LPD Package-NR LO 20Fast LO Fast Lighting Controls Interior-New LO Medium LO Fast Lighting Controls Interior-NR LO Medium LO Fast Glass-Retro Retro in 20 Retro in 10 Demand Control Ventilation-NR LO Slow LO Medium Roof Insulation-NR LO Fast Retro in 10 Computer Servers and IT-Retro LO Slow LO Medium Street and Roadway Lighting-NR LO Slow LO Medium Revisions: Commercial

  7. Residential • Consumer Electronics • New analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 years • LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014 • Heat Pump Water Heater • Emerging Technology Ramp Rate

  8. Results

  9. Lost-Opportunity

  10. Retrofit

  11. Comparative Max Rates

  12. Reality Check • Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007 • Expect higher in 2008 • Most programs exceed 2007 & NEEA too • Of the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLs • But CFL savings not in 6th Plan targets • Many New Measures • Higher Avoided Costs • Federal Standards Push • State Code Revisions in the Works

  13. 5th Plan Targets Seemed Daunting 5th Plan Targets (130 to 150 MWa) Historic Performance

  14. Part 2: Ramp Rate Sensitivity Testing • Purpose: • What is the Value of Going Faster? • What is the Cost of Going Slower? • What are the Resource Consequences? • What are the Revenue Requirements? • Tool: Portfolio Model • Test Slow & Fast Achievable Penetration • Issue: What Ranges?

  15. Ramp Rate Sensitivity TestingStaff Proposal • Lost-Opportunity • SLOW: Up to $60 / MWh levelized cost • FAST: Up to $120 / MWh levelized cost • Non-Lost-Opportunity • SLOW: 5th Plan Rate • FAST: Washington I-937 rate • All Cost-Effective in 10 years – evenly paced

  16. Test Slow & Fast Deployment Rates Proposed Annual Maximum Limits on Deployment in MWa

  17. Annual Deployment Rates for Non-Lost Opportunity Resources

  18. Annual Deployment Rate for Lost Opportunity Resources

  19. Annual Deployment Rates for All Conservation Resources

  20. Cumulative Deployment Rate for Non-Lost Opportunity Resources

  21. Cumulative Deployment Rate for Lost Opportunity Resources

  22. Cumulative Deployment Rate for All Resources

  23. End

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