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Source: Thomson/Datastream.

The External Environment for Developing Countries March 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. Federal Reserve’s “quantitative easing” spurs quick fall in long rates U.S. ten-year T-note, 30-year fixed- and ARM mortgage rates, percent. Variable ARM rate [right].

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Source: Thomson/Datastream.

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  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesMarch 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. Federal Reserve’s “quantitative easing” spurs quick fall in long rates U.S. ten-year T-note, 30-year fixed- and ARM mortgage rates, percent Variable ARM rate [right] Ten-year note [left] 30-year fixed mortgage [right] Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  3. ... sustaining longest equity rally since end-2008 Indexes: 100 on September 15, 2008 [Lehman Brothers] MSCI-Emerging Markets DJIA USA Topix Japan CAC- France Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  4. Industrial countries

  5. U.S. GDP revised to substantial 6.2% decline in fourth quarter 2008 growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Government Consumption Investment Net Exports Source: Department of Commerce and DECPG calculations.

  6. Continued employment losses affecting incomes and retail spending retail sales growth (saar) [L]; change in employment (3mma) [R] Retail sales [L] Change in employment [R] Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor.

  7. Virtual collapse in manufacturing and exports pressures growth furtherdurable goods orders, export volumes and mfgr output, ch% saar Exports [right] Production [left] Orders [right] Source: Federal Reserve, Department of Commerce.

  8. Japan’s trade and production falling from a veritable “cliff” through Februaryexport volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar IP [Left] Export volume [R] Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office.

  9. United States and Asia account for the bulk of the decline in Japan’s exportscontributions to growth in percentage points Asia USA EU MENA Total Other Source: National Sources through Thomson/Datastream.

  10. Japan’s liquidity inches higher growth of M-0, M1 and ‘L’, ch%, y/y ‘L’ (Broad money) M-1 M-0 Source: Bank of Japan.

  11. GDP in Euro Area falls sharply on investment and exports growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Consumption Government Investment Net Exports Source: EUROSTAT and DECPG calculations.

  12. Trade is sapping the German economy of any forward momentum export orders and factory output, ch% saar IP Manufacturing Export orders Source: EUROSTAT through Thomson/Datastream.

  13. European labor markets begin to weaken, sentiment falls quicklygrowth in the number of EA unemployed [left] EC consumer sentiment [right] growth in the number of unemployed (y/y), % [left] Euro Area consumer sentiment [right] Source: EUROSTAT and European Commission.

  14. Industrial production

  15. Manufacturing output collapses across high-income OECD countriesmanufactures output, ch% (3m/3m saar) Eurozone Japan USA -56.5% Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  16. Industrial output decline intensifies in Europeindustrial production ch% (3m/3m saar) Germany Italy France Spain Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  17. Industrial output collapses in ECA as trade partners fall deeper into recessionindustrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar) Europe and Central Asia Turkey Czech Republic Hungary Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  18. International trade

  19. Growth of world trade in dollarsQ4-2008 / Q-4 2007 (%) export values: ch% yr/yr Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

  20. U.S. current balance improves in fourth quarter on falloff in goods imports (notably oil) Income Services Non-oil BOT Oil balance Transfers Current account Source: Department of Commerce.

  21. World trade has averaged 10% growth per annum over the last 2 decadesexport values (USD), ch% Source: National Agencies through Haver Analytics.

  22. Oil prices

  23. OECD oil stocks remain high million bbl $/bbl OECD stocks [R] Oil price [L] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  24. OPEC oil production drops sharply mb/d Including Iraq OPEC-11 Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  25. WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX $/bbl Monthly contract prices to Dec 2014* on select dates in 2009 Mar 16 Jan 15 Feb 18 Source: NYMEX.

  26. Non-oil commodity prices

  27. Food prices slip in February on weak demand (2000=100) Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

  28. Copper prices rise on Chinese restocking $/ton ‘000 tons Copper price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

  29. Freight rates revive on stronger trans-PAC bulk shipments $/ton Baltic dry freight index Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

  30. International Finance

  31. Lending falters in early 2009 as banks deleverage and build capital Source: DECPG Finance Team.

  32. EM equities outperform mature markets over 2009 to date return by period Emerging markets Mature markets * through March 13 Source: Morgan-Stanley through Thomson/Datastream

  33. Sovereign credit risk has increased sharply across emerging marketsSovereign CDS spreads in basis points // 3,680 // 4,600 Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team.

  34. Currencies

  35. Dollar continues gains against euroand yen until FOMC of March 18 USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] USD/Euro (inverse) yen/USD Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  36. Net foreign purchases of U.S. assets turn to outflow as of the fourth quarter net foreign purchases USD billions Source: U.S. Treasury ‘TICS’ database.

  37. Emerging market currencies down vs the dollar over 2009 to datepercentage change (USD per LCU) (%) Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  38. The External Environment for Developing CountriesMarch 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

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