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2020 Vision

2020 Vision

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2020 Vision

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  1. 2020 Vision or, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future

  2. Futurology: the study and forecasting of the future, with predictions based on the likely outcomes of current trends -encarta

  3. images from harry potter lexicon

  4. “In any forecasting project it’s always good to start by making it clear that most things will be the same. Look at any 10 year time-span and most things are mostly the same before and after.” - Russell Davies http://russelldavies.typepad.com/planning/account_planning_school_of_the_web/page/3/

  5. a lot can happen in ten years… • 2000 fair trade bananas in co-op stores • 2001 human genome sequenced • 2003 hybrid cars • 2004 facebook • 2005 youtube • 2007 iphone launched

  6. the big picture

  7. “There's an important shift towards local. Clever people everywhere see that if it's shipped in on fossil fuel it's likely to not be there in 20 years or so. Maybe 5, who knows.So that's local, barter economy, local currencies and a tectonic shift against the corporation and banks.”- Charles Frithhttp://www.charlesfrith.com /

  8. “So its likely that the future is a mix of what we want, what we want to be, what we cant do without, what we can't admit we can't do without and cutting out the stuff where we're reliant on the institutions that provide them. Its slow moving but its undeniable.”- Charles Frithhttp://www.charlesfrith.com

  9. demographics

  10. UK population • We know that the demographic landscape of the UK will shift considerably over the next 10 years • The UK population is projected to grown by over 4M by 2018 • 55% natural increase (more births than deaths) • 45% net migration source: ONS

  11. by 2013:

  12. by 2013:

  13. What might this mean? • By 2020 a third of us will be living alone (Future Foundation) • Children living with both biological parents in the same household will be in the minority • More twenty and thirty somethings living at home • Home extensions • Multigenerational living • Personalised space – bedsits with own technology and relaxation space

  14. People working longer in order to pay for the cost of living Switch to part time Customer service benefits images from B&Q

  15. technology

  16. What’s next? photo by rewindmuseum ? 15 years

  17. Digital Natives “The generations becoming adults between now and 2020 are the first to grow up with the internet and global communication as a fundamental part of their everyday lives” – Rob Mortimer www.ad-pit.com

  18. Digital Natives vs. Digital Immigrants “There’s a dividing line between those under the age of about 25ish and those above. Those above will still respond to traditional ‘above the line’ interruption communications, but the under 25s just don’t consume media that way. They’re used to being in control and doing stuff in a multi platform way” - Andrew Hovells, (Northern Planner) http://joymachine.typepad.com/northern_planner/

  19. Screens and chips convergence Digital multitasking Solo viewing On demand The Digital Home photo by obliterated on flickr

  20. Together but apart photo by wfryer on flickr

  21. engaging with friends and family • Sacrificing on other forms of entertainment in order to spend on technology • 75% increase in technology sales over the last decade Homedulgence source: LSN Global (via Andrew Hovells), photo by harmoney on flickr

  22. Multiscreen trends found via Paul Malletthttp://paulmallett.wordpress.com

  23. Intelligence & connectivity turns products into services via Paul Mallett http://paulmallett.wordpress.com

  24. Global Village Trends cross cultural and geographical boundaries increasingly fast People spending more time online Conversing / doing things with people who are geographically remote image from dou_ble_you on flickr

  25. Post multitasking Skimming the surface of incoming data, picking out the relevant details, and moving on to the next stream Yearning for silence and/or Wanting to get to the bottom of things Continuous partial attention

  26. image via playsoft

  27. slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com

  28. slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com

  29. slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com

  30. Evolution of social networks Social shopping / team buying Friend/peer recommendation Buying is a visual, emotive process ‘me tail’ Monetising?

  31. Vigilante consumers • The consumer manipulates marketers and the marketplace through pressure, protest and politics: • Twitter vs. Daily Mail re Stephen Gately article results in 22,000 complaints to PCC • Old man vs. tube worker – apology, investigation, worker resigned

  32. consumer/retail trends

  33. Source: Internet retail trends 2010: Ten actions for your business’, Verdict Consulting/Webloyalty Rapid growth in online retailing set to slow in next 5 years Likely to average 11% as market matures

  34. Catalogues not going away • Quality • Shelf life • convenience • Browse vs. order • BUT don’t repeat mail Flick and Click

  35. Recycled • Recyclable • Minimising waste • Tobi.com – ‘love an ugly box’ • Lush popcorn Sustainable mail order photo by tobi.com

  36. the new brand loyalty Super loyal Vs Savvy Eroding the middle ground

  37. photo from psfk.com Instant gratification

  38. Sustainability • Currently buying ‘green’ or ‘ethical’ is a motivator - with the expectation of payback • But this will eventually become a hygiene factor • Sustainability is shifting to the core of business – e.g. Starbucks goes fair trade • Mainstream confusion over ethical labelling • Where do you draw the line? • Difficult to separate social & environmental benefits

  39. The divided consumer

  40. Anchoring • Spiritual anchoring in times of turbulence and change • Stabilising in a place of peace & trust • Looking at the larger picture in which circumstances sit • Reaching back to our spiritual roots • Reaction to digital lives – desire for pragmatism and peace • Opportunity for products and brands that alleviate anxiety/fears source WGSN, photo by jpc101 on flickr

  41. Simple pleasures • Frustrated, slightly worn down consumers, needing cheap release • Open to good, positive ideas for future • Me time, family time, quality time • Enjoying life photo bypenmachineon flickr

  42. Generosity • Asking customers to decide and/or donate • Assisting customers in smart, generous, relevant ways to make life more convenient • Perkonomics – perks & privileges to satisfy need for status and/or convenience • Tryvertising – end users, not influencers, product sampling & experiential source trendwatching.com, photos by jennmae on flickr and Waitrose

  43. Using technology to understand our quirks Technology can create distance (e.g. email) Online practical guides Personalised search Value vs. cost Genuine service Empowering employees Bringing a sense of worth to item Common sense and good service

  44. fashion

  45. Democratisation of luxury but disappearing middle ground discount luxury

  46. Democratisation of luxury • According to the Future Foundation, 63% of us would rather buy one beautifully made item than lots of cheaper items creative recycled sustainable imaginative functional natural simple make & do

  47. Fickleness going out of fashion New luxury = high end, quality, durable, improving over time images from Howies and RussellDavies