1 / 39

Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT)

Agricultural impact studies in areas of complex orography: the need for high resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT). CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004.

tess
Télécharger la présentation

Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Agricultural impact studies in areas of complex orography:the need for high resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  2. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography M. Inés Mínguez, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Carlos H. Díaz-Ambrona, Miguel Quemada and Federico Sau IT: Daniel del Valle Sergio de GruijterUPM & USC PRUDENCE PROJECT Prediction Uncertainties Describing European Climate change and Effects CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  3. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography FORCING A2 & B2 SCENARIOS (SRES) AGCMs RCMs Agricultural Impact (Crop Models) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  4. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography RCMs in PRUDENCE • Comparison among 9 RCMs • Forcing with 1 RGM: HadAM3H (less in Arpège RCM which has it’s own forcing s.) • 2 climate change scenarios: A2 & B2 CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  5. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography RCMs in PRUDENCE 1. HadRM3H (HC: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research) 2. RegCM (ICTP: The Abdus Salam Intl. Centre for Theoretical Physiscs) 3. CHRM (ETH: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology) 4. RACMO (KNMI: The Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute) 5. ARPÈGE (MF: Meteo France) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  6. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography RCMs in PRUDENCE 6. CLM (GKSS: GKSS FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM; Institute for Coastal Research) 7. REMO (MPI: Max Planck Institute for Meteorological Research) 8. PROMES (UCM: Universidad Complutense de Madrid) 9. HIRHAM (DMI: Danish Meteorological Institute) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  7. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Crop models used in PRUDENCE • Physiological type models: DSSAT3.5-CERES (mechanistic model; Jones et. al., 2003) • Cropping system-type model: CropSyst (simpler model; Stockle et al., 2003) Non-linear response in both types. CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  8. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Compensating effects of climate change reflected in models • CO2 increase (for a given T)  • Increase in photosynthetic rates • Decrease in Transpiration rates (ET) • T increase  - Increase in evapotranspiration (ET) - Shorter crop cycles (thermal time) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  9. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Crop models used in PRUDENCE INPUTS: • Daily weather data: SR, Tmax, Tmin, P (Optional: VPD, wind speed) • Soil profile caracteristics LL, DUL & SAT (for each soil layer) • Species charaterisitics (eg wheat) and variety (eg cv. Anza, Marius) Genetic coefficients that allow to define thousands of genotypes • Soil initial conditions (soil water content) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  10. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Crop simulations • Climate change impact assessment - Use of winter (wheat) vs summer crops (maize) to discriminate between seasons • Crop management (Irrigated and Rainfed) for changing uncertainty levels CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  11. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Adding Uncertainties • from the RCMs predictions • from the crop models per se • from the extrapolation of crop models, tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain • soil profiles (DUL, LL, SAT and depth) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  12. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Changing uncertainty levels Greater uncertainty level: rain-fed systems • Rainfall data • Soil profiles: LL, DUL, SAT, depth • Initial soil conditions • Crop responses to water stress CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  13. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Smaller uncertainty level: irrigated systems (if water available) • Potential yield simulation (elimination of water stress) • Spatial variability in soil textures and depth has much less influence in yield • Rainfall predictions do not affect yields Effect of Tmax, Tmin and SR CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  14. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Crop model calibration and validation has to focus on the main processes involved at crop and cropping systems level • phenology, biomass and yield • ETc and net irrigation requirements CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  15. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Spatial scales with impact models • Crop model calibration and validation: Site-specific Some agricultural areas outside the calibration (validation) • Crop models generate data within the range recorded by MAPYA CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  16. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  17. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Soil data base: 34 soil groups specific profiles PROMES land-grids CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  18. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Species/cvs for season discrimination • Autumn-winter-spring for winter (cv. Marius) and spring wheat (cv. Anza) rainfed and irrigated (ETmax) Sow. 15 october • Spring-summer maize (irrigated) Sow. 15 April; 15 May; 1 June CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  19. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Filters • Varieties (CVs) with different cold requirements for flower induction: spring (Anza) vs winter (Marius) cultivars enhancing the important differences in T (Tmin) in winter Winter wheat: vernalization needs have to be fulfilled. CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  20. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Simulations • Current: 1960-1990 • A2 or B2: 2070-2100 Outputs: average of 30 years (current & A2 or B2) Results are presented in maps: A2 or B2/Current (%) or Relative Yield (%) CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  21. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c o n t r o l R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s REMO winter wheat rain-fed CERES A2/crtl CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  22. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s REMO winter wheat irrigated CERES A2/crtl CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  23. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography HadAM3H A2driving conditions Relative yield CERES- Spring Wheat (DSSAT) Irrigated Sowing date: 15 october CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  24. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s HadAM3H (HC) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  25. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s RegCM (ICTP) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  26. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s CHRM (ETH) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  27. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s RACMO (KNMI) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  28. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s Arpège CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  29. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s CLM (GKSS) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  30. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s HadRM3H (HadleyC) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  31. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s REMO (MPI) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  32. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s PROMES (UCM) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  33. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography A 2 / c u r r e n t R e l a t i v e Y i e l d ( % ) < 5 0 5 0 - 7 0 7 0 - 9 0 9 0 - 1 1 0 1 1 0 - 1 3 0 1 3 0 - 1 5 0 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 > 2 0 0 C r o p f a i l u r e s HIRHAM (DMI) CERES-Spring Wheat A2 Irrigated CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  34. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Crop model • Differences between the two crop models outputs exist: CERES-DSSAT discriminates more among polygons CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  35. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Changes in irrigation requirements for maize A2 PROMES B2 CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  36. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography 50 km vs 25 km CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  37. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Some conclusions • Regions/areas show similar yield trends in many RCM models • Influence in rainfed crops of Tmin vs rainfall • All models detect winter vs spring wheat • Higher resolution: more differences among soil polygons CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  38. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography Still working on: • A2, B2 scenarios • 50 km vs 25 km (grid) • Other forcings: try different GCMs with the same RCM. THANK YOU CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

  39. Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004

More Related