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Ines Ivančić

NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries . Improvement and Harmonization of BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue [ Compilation of data, comparison with SHARE-GEM catalog ]. Ines Ivančić

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Ines Ivančić

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  1. NATO SfP 984374 | Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries Improvement and Harmonization of BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue [Compilation of data, comparison with SHARE-GEM catalog] Ines Ivančić Croatian Seismological Survey, Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb

  2. UnifiedBSHAP Earthquake CatalogueSummary on previous project - NATO SfP 983054 The BSHAP-1 catalog is compiled from: -National catalogues: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Montenegro, Macedonia,Romania, SerbiaandSlovenia - Regional and Globalcatalogues: Karnik1996; Shebalin& Leydecker; ISC; NEIC; CMT Harvard Catalog; RCMT, INGV, Roma; RCMT, ETHZ, ZurichandEMMA database, Version 2

  3. Theinitial BSHAP-1catalogue 38.0 – 47.5 N12.5 – 24.5 E M ≥ 3.5 13342 earthquakes

  4. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Mapsfor the Western Balkan Countries, 2ndWorkshop, Belgrade, 24-25 April 2013 Plan for the WP1:   

  5. CATALOGUES SUBMITED FOR BSHAP-2 MONTENEGRO CROATIA SERBIA • Albania: 1964-2011, M ≥ 1.0 • Croatia: 373BC-2012, M ≥ 3.0 • Macedonia: • 479-2005, M ≥ 3.0catalogue already submitted to BSHAP-1 • 2006-2013,M ≥ 3.0taken from the officialGreek Catalogue (AristotleUniversityofThessaloniki, http://geophysics.geo.auth.gr/ss/station_index_en.html) • Montenegro: 1970-2012, M ≥ 3.0 • Serbia: 1970-2012, M ≥ 3.0 • BosniaandHerzegovina: ??? MACEDONIA ALBANIA

  6. CATALOGUES SUBMITED FOR BSHAP-2 ‘Clipped’ nationalearthquakecatalogues M≥3.0 1970 - 2012 According to the agreement: • Updatethe BSHAP-1 catalogue for 3.0≤M<3.5 earthquakes after 1970 • Mergeearthquakes occurred between 2010-2012 • … using 15 km buffer zones around national borders BosniaandHerzegovina: • missingcatalogue ? ?

  7. BosniaandHerzegovina BSHAP-1 CATALOGUE (M≥3.5): • B&H participatedwithitsnationalcatalogue BSHAP-2 • missingnationalcataloguefor events3.0≤M< 3.5 after 1970 andeventsafter 2010 BSHAP-1 M ≥ 3.5 BSHAP-1 and CEC2012 compared for events M≥3.5, inthe period 1386-2010: BSHAP-1: 504 earthquakes CEC2012: 614 earthquakes 1386 -2010 M ≥ 3.5 BSHAP-2 • AllavaliabledatafromCroatian, MontenegrinandSerbiancatalogueswerecompiled for BSHAP-2 earthquakecatalogue on theteritoryof B&H • Red dots: BSHAP-1 • Bluedots: CEC2012 • (Croatianearthquakecatalog) 1386 -2012 M ≥ 3.0

  8. FINAL SELECTION FROM THE CATALOGUES SUBMITED FOR BSHAP-1 UPDATE PROCEDURE: • Definingduplicateeventsinborderregion (15km) • RemovingeventsM < 2.4 & M ˃ 4.0 (1970 – 2012)fromnationalcatalogues • Comparingitwith BSHAP-1 PROBLEMS: • National cataloguescontain original data for all duplicateeventsresolvedin BSHAP-1 • Becauseofthepossibility to createnewduplicates, itwasofgreatimportancetodetermineeventsprevioslyresolvedin BSHAP-1 MERGING BSHAP-2 CATALOGUE

  9. DEFINING DUPLICATE EVENTS IN BORDER REGION B&H CRO MN MN • Earthquakeswithinborderregion: approx. 15 km from the both sides of the border • Finding duplicate events between neighbouring countries: Croatia – Monte Negro, Monte Negro – Serbia, Monte Negro – Albania and Serbia - Albania • Comparing duplicateswith BSHAP-1 catalogue: all events resolved in BSHAP-1catalogue were identified. • Assigningcorresponding country to the event. It was done with the use of MapInfo program and the geographical coordinates in its Europe.tab file. (Possiblediscrepancies with real border coordinates?) ALB • T ± 90 s or less? • D ± 40km or less? • Everydoubtfuleventshouldbemanuallychecked?

  10. 38.0 – 47.5 N12.5 – 24.5 E 510BC – 1969 M ≥ 3.5 1970 – 2012 M ≥ 3.0 19539 earthquakes BSHAP-2Earthquake Catalogue

  11. 39.2 – 46.6 N12.8 – 23.3 E BSHAP-2Earthquake Catalogue – estimating completeness Time distribution of seismicevents(mainshocks) by year (1970-2012) , (ML≥ 3.0) Magnitude frequency distribution of earthquakes (max.-likelihood b-value, after Gutenberg-Richterrelationship) MC ≥ 4.0(bML= –1.12) Maximum magnitude byyear:

  12. Bluedots: BSHAP-2 Red dots: BSHAP-1 BSHAP-2 Earthquake Catalogue Gap in magnitude distributionat aprox. 3.5 <M<4.0 due to irregular spatial distribution of earthquakes with magnitude M<4.0! Magnitude timeline 1970-2012, M ≥ 3.0 (Mw|ML or MLH)(19539 earthquakes) Numberofeq. peryear Magnitude distributionofmainshocksinnarrowerareaof BSHAP-2 catalogue (9698 eq): Magnitude distributionofmainshocksinnarrowerareaof BSHAP-2 catalogue (9698 eq): Magnitude distributionof all earthquakesinnarrowerareaof BSHAP-2 catalogue (9007 eq): Magnitude Count

  13. ISC-GEM Global Instrumental EarthquakeCatalogue(1900-2009), M ≥ 5.5 BSHAP-2catalogue compared to the ISC-GEM catalogue for large events for any discrepancies http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php 38.0 – 47.5 N12.5 – 24.5 E M ≥ 5.5 ISC-GEMcatalogue Green dots: ISC-GEM Red dots: BSHAP-2 Determinig same events: Comparing BSHAP-2 and ISC-GEM ISC-GEM BSHAP-2

  14. ISC-GEM Global Instrumental EarthquakeCatalogue(1900-2009), M ≥ 5.5 http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php 38.0 – 47.5 N12.5 – 24.5 E M ≥ 5.5 Green dots: ISC-GEM Red dots: BSHAP-2

  15. SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEECv3.3) 373BC –2006 Grünthal, G., Wahlström, R., Stromeyer, D. (2013), The SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC) for the time period 1900-2006 and its comparison to EMEC. Journal of Seismology http://www.efehr.org:8080/jetspeed/portal/hazard.psml

  16. BSHAP-2 comparison with SHARE (SHEEC) catalog BSHAP-2catalogue compared to the SHEEC catalogue (SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (ver. 3.3)) 38.0 – 47.5 N12.5 – 24.5 E SHEEC 38.0 – 47.5 N12.5 – 24.5 E 373BC – 2006 M ≥ 3.0 6609 earthquakes BSHAPE-2 38.0 – 47.5 N12.5 – 24.5 E 510BC – 2006 M ≥ 3.0 17614 earthquakes Yellowdots: SHARE-GEM Red dots: BSHAP-2

  17. BSHAP-2 comparison with SHARE-GEM (SHEEC) catalog BSHAP-1 – SHEEC comparedmagnitude distribution Determining same events: 4052 earthquakes BSHAPE-2 SHEEC Mwu(BSHAPE)/Mw(SHARE) magnitude regression Magnitude-differencedistribution (Mwu-Mw)/Mwu(BSHAP) N M Time difference Distance difference Mwu(BSHAPE-2) -0.5≤M≤0.5 87% eq.

  18. CONCLUSION Accomplished tasks: • UpdatedBSHAP-2 catalogue with 3.0≤M<3.5 earthquakes and earthquakes occurred between 2010-2012 according to updated national earthquake catalogues • Determined duplicate events in 15 km buffer zones around national borders • UpdatedBosnia and Herzegovina earthquake catalog with all available data from Croatian, Montenegro and Serbian national catalogues Tasks to be accomplished: • Neighbors should check buffer zone updates • Declusteringand completeness check should be performed

  19. CONCLUSION Proposed tasks: • Updating BSHAP-2 catalogue with 3.0≤M<3.5 events and events occurred between 2010-2012 from neighboring countries (Italy, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece) if possible • Unification of the magnitudes, especially according to new updates • Examining and filtering the BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue for missing or duplicate events And finaly providing a final earthquake catalogue compatible with international standards

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