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Agile estimations and Planning

Agile estimations and Planning. Cornel FATULESCU agile coach. Did It Ever Happen to You?. Who the ... made this estimation? Sorry it will take me than … hours! I hope we’ll deliver tomorrow. I can’t tell you how much time it will take! We don’t have time for testing …. Usual solution.

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Agile estimations and Planning

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  1. Agile estimations and Planning Cornel FATULESCU agile coach

  2. Did It Ever Happen to You? • Who the ... made this estimation? • Sorry it will take me than … hours! • I hope we’ll deliver tomorrow. • I can’t tell you how much time it will take! • We don’t have time for testing • …

  3. Usual solution Time for an alternative solution!

  4. Classical IT services supplier scenario Some knowledge might be lost Grooming sessions Basic knowledge Release Planning Capitalize RFP Knowledge Problem 1 How to estimate features? Product Vision DoR DoD Goals Estimations Initial Backlog Problem 2 How to plan? Initial Release Planning Some members of newly created team Some experts The team

  5. How to estimate features ? • What does the team need for each feature in order to increment it? • How features become part of the increment? • Estimate the features! Definition of Ready Definition of Done Relative Estimations

  6. Feature metamorphosis flow!

  7. End of Release Release Planning … Feature metamorphosis flow! … … … … ? ? ? … ? … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

  8. Sample of Definition of Ready for a feature

  9. Sample of Definition of Done for a feature

  10. Why relative estimations? • Product Owner: How long it will take to deliver feature A? • 1st team member : 3 Days • 2nd team member: 6 Days Both estimations might be right!

  11. Why relative estimations? • Product Owner: How long it will take Compared to feature B we’ve done the last time? • 1st team member : 3 times more • 2nd team member: I agree, 3 times more

  12. Measure the size, calculate the time Velocity = 𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 =

  13. Measure the size, calculate the time Velocity = 𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 = http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/its-effort-not-complexity

  14. It’s effort, not complexity “In a class a few years back, I was given a wonderful example of this. Suppose a team consists of a little kid and a brain surgeon. Their product backlog includes two items: lick 1,000 stamps and perform a simple brain surgery–snip and done. These items are chosen to presumably take the same amount of time. If you disagree, simply adjust the number of stamps in the example. Despite their vastly different complexities, the two items should be given the same number of story points–each is expected to take the same amount of time.” -Mike Cohn http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/its-effort-not-complexity

  15. Visualize the estimations 35 SPs 5 SPs 6 SPs 6 SPs 10 SPs 8 SPs

  16. How to plan? Release Planning Process Our concern? Sprint DoR, DoD Release DoR, DoD

  17. What is release planning? In Scrum no more than 10% of the Sprint • It is a process not an event! Through Grooming Sessions Usually more effort needed than in a sprint

  18. Sample of Definition of Ready for a sprint

  19. Sample of Definition of Done for a sprint

  20. Sprint Context 6 People 70% 2 weeks 10 Days 16 SPs

  21. Estimate 1 SP • Estimate in hours several features • Ex: Feature 1 • Estimated initially at 3 SPs • Estimated in man days at 6 days • =>1 SP = 2 days • Ask the team directly how they evaluate 1SP? • Experience and measure

  22. Calculate Sprints Velocity

  23. Simulate sprints • 2nd Sprint Velocity 22 SPs • 1st Sprint Velocity 16 SPs • 2nd Sprint Velocity 28 SPs

  24. Measure and re-estimate 1 SP? • Ex: 1st sprint estimated at 16 SPs velocity • After execution we deliver 12 SPs • Do reverse calculations from the previous slides

  25. Criteria for ordering the backlog • 1st The risk which the story should diminish • 2nd The uncertainty on client needs which the story should reduce • 3rd The contribution to the product quality • 4th The dependencies between stories • 5th The utility of a story, based on business value, ROI, costs….

  26. Dealing with uncertainty Demo inspired from http://blog.bobcravens.com/2011/05/4-principles-to-estimation-applied-to-software-development/

  27. Estimate how long will the walking take?

  28. Walking from Iasi to Bucharest • Distance Iasi – Bucharest = 417 km • Average walking velocity = 5.0 (km/h) • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking • We estimate walking 8 hours per day • ~ 10.5 days of walking from Iasi to Bucharest

  29. Walking from Iasi to Bucharest • Initial uncertainty is probably in hours or days

  30. We walk from Iasi to Roman

  31. Walking from Iasi to Bucharest • Distance Iasi – Roman = ~86 km • Real walking velocity = 4.0 (km/h) • We’ve walked 6 hours per day • ~ 3.6 days of walking from Iasi to Roman

  32. Estimate from Roman to Bucharest?

  33. Walking from Roman to Bucharest • Distance Roman – Bucharest = ~331 km • Estimated walking velocity = 4.0 (km/h) • Estimated walking hours per day = 6 • ~ 14.8 days of walking from Roman to Bucharest • Initial cycle time = 10.5 days of walking • Total cycle time = 18.4 days of walking

  34. Burn-down chart Iasi-Bucharest

  35. What about agile planning poker? • The most common estimation method known in the agile community • The interest is in the discussions

  36. What about agile planning poker? • The most common estimation method known in the agile community • The interest is in the discussions

  37. Estimation issues hide higher problems!

  38. Sprint Backlog

  39. Observed issues • Just technical stories/no user stories • Stories didn’t correspond to INVEST criteria • Waterfall approach in iterations • Lack of Definition of Ready • Definition of Done was not respected • …

  40. Start from the need of information • Clients want to know when it will be ready, the budget… • Ex: Continuous pulling systems like Kanban =>use average Cycle Time instead • TODO in another knowledge sharing session!

  41. Cornel FATULESCU agile coach Planning is Everything. Plans are Nothing. - Helmuthvon Moltke

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