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Strategic Analysis of India’s National River-Linking Project [NRLP]

Strategic Analysis of India’s National River-Linking Project [NRLP]. Contours of NRLP…. Building 30 links, 3000 small and large reservoirs, 12500 km of canals to link 36 Himalayan and Peninsular rivers to effect 178 km 3 of inter-basin water transport.

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Strategic Analysis of India’s National River-Linking Project [NRLP]

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  1. Strategic Analysis of India’s National River-Linking Project [NRLP]

  2. Contours of NRLP… • Building 30 links, 3000 small and large reservoirs, 12500 km of canals to link 36 Himalayan and Peninsular rivers to effect 178 km3 of inter-basin water transport. • 35 MHa of new irrigated area; 35 GW of hydro-capacity; navigation and flood control benefits. • Gestation Period: Proposed=2016; Most Likely=2050 • Cost = Rs 560,000 cr. at 2002 prices (US $ 120 Billion); 1 - 1.5% of India’s GDP for the next 3 decades. • Largest infrastructure project anywhere, ever. Five times the size of the ……Three Gorges Project.

  3. Why do we need a Research Project… • Hardened positions with little analysis • Critics complaint that government has not done good analysis of alternatives • Government says that considering the magnitude of the crisis, NRLP is the only option • Key Missing Issues: • What is the magnitude of crisis itself? • How was interlinking chosen as the best available option • What is the scope of the alternatives? • How do we ensure that there will be implementation efficiency - time and cost overruns - and O&M would be done better than before? • What would it takes to implement alternative solutions on national scale?

  4. Promote a balanced, analytical and informed national discourse on India's Water Future 2050, and approaches to shaping it, including through the River-Linking project Support South Asia’s quest for food livelihoods and water security Capitalize on the uncommon opportunity created by the NRLP Project Goal… …and Purpose

  5. Specific Objectives… • Build scenarios of what India will be like—its economy, society, demographics, habitat, and environment – in 2025 and 2050, and with what implications for its water future? • Analyze whether NRLP is an adequate, cost effective and sustainable response—in socio-ecological as well as political terms--towards meeting the water challenge. • Sew together a clutch of institutional and policy interventions into a National Water Sector Perspective Plan (NWSPP) as a fallback strategy. • Identify best practices to implement the NRLP as well as the NWSPP

  6. PHASE ACTIVITIES OUTPUT Phase I 9 Months 11 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop I A Sharp, Well-Rounded Prognosis of India’s Water Future - 2025/2050 & of the Water Challenge Facing the Nation Phase II 15 Months Phase II A Phase II B Phase II A Phase II B 16 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop II 7 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop III How adequate, complete and cost-effective a response is the River-Linking Project to India’s Water Challenge 2050? How to maximize net social benefit of the River-Link Project Phase III 12 Months Phase III A Phase III B Phase III A Phase III A 14 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop IV 8 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop V If NRLP fails to take off, how else can India effectively meet its Water Challenge 2050? How best to put into operation the National Perspective Plan Concluding Workshop VI: Planning for a Food, Livelihoods and Water Secure India 2050

  7. Phase-wise Activities and Methods… The 3 years ahead…

  8. Phase I… Demographic Projections Regional Patterns in Economic Growth Food Security and Trade Liberalization Indian Agriculture and Irrigation Revisiting Water Availability and Demand Domestic and Industrial Water Demand Environmental Water Demand India’s Macro Hydrology A Sharp, Well-Rounded Prognosis of India’s Water Future - 2025/2050 & of the Water Challenge Facing the Nation

  9. Phase II… Technical Feasibility Financial Feasibility Economic Analysis Env’tal and Ecological Valuations Social Cost-Benefit Analyses Institutions and Political Economy Implementation Effectiveness [1] How adequate, complete and cost-effective a response is the River-Linking Project to India’s Water Challenge 2050? [2] How to maximize net social benefit of NRLP?

  10. Phase III… Decentralized Water Harvesting Ganges Water Machine Virtual Water Transfers Water Demand Management Inter-Sectoral Competition Water Institutions and Policies Alternative Energy Sources and Scenarios Water Use Efficiency and Productivity [1] If the NRLP fails to take off, how else can India effectively meet its Water Challenge 2050? [2] How best to put into operation the NWSPP?

  11. Key Strengths… • Impart substance and quality to the national discourse on NRLP; • Help India think through its long term water challenge and evolve a fall-back strategy to meet it; • Rally a broad alliance of Indian researchers and institutions to participate in a distributed research and dissemination program; • Allocate over 70% of the resources requested to NARES institutions; and • Leverage substantial ‘knowledge equity’ and funds IWMI contributes as matching resources.

  12. Thank You…

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