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The American Nuclear Society

The American Nuclear Society. The Society for the advancement of nuclear science and technology to benefit humanity. The Top Ten Nuclear Issues & Challenges. Remarks to the ASQ Energy and Environmental Division by Garry A Harris ANS Chairperson, Georgia Section September 13, 2004.

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The American Nuclear Society

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  1. The American Nuclear Society The Society for the advancement of nuclear science and technology to benefit humanity

  2. The Top Ten Nuclear Issues & Challenges Remarks to the ASQ Energy and Environmental Division by Garry A Harris ANS Chairperson, Georgia Section September 13, 2004

  3. ANS Membership 11,000 individual members • 800 (7%) outside the United States • 47 countries represented • 8% under 35; 15% over 66 • ~700 with less than 5 years experience • Under 35 group increased by ~40% from 1999 to today

  4. ANS Membership AlsoConsists of: • 19 Divisions/Technical Groups • 70 Organization Members • 36 U.S. Local Sections • 9 Non-U.S. Sections/Affiliated Societies • 30 formal agreements for cooperation with international organizations • 15 Plant Branches • 33 Student Sections

  5. ANS Goals ANS will be: • the recognized leader for the advancement of nuclear science and technology • members’ primary resource for professional development and knowledge exchange • publicly recognized as a credible source of nuclear science and technology information • an active contributor to, and participant in, nuclear science and technology issues

  6. Top 10 - Nuclear Good News • Delivery of record outputs

  7. (Billions of Kilowatt-Hours) Source: NEI Record Nuclear Electricity Production Is Sustainable

  8. Top 10 - Nuclear Good News • Delivery of record outputs • Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply

  9. Top 10 - Nuclear Good News • Delivery of record outputs • Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply • Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and secure energy supply

  10. Fossil Fuel Supplies • Western World must reduce their dependence on oil • Limit influence on foreign policy • Reduce cost to economy of oil price shocks • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Prepare for inevitable resource depletion • Husband oil for other uses • Reducing oil use is not a solution to terrorism but it may help

  11. Top 10 - Nuclear Good News • Delivery of record outputs • Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply • Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and secure energy supply • Excellent safety record

  12. Significant Events: Annual Industry Average (1988-2001) • Significant Events (SEs) are those events that the NRC staff identifies for the • PI Program as meeting one or more of the following criteria: • degradation of important safety equipment; • a major transient or an unexpected plant response to a transient; • degradation of fuel integrity, the primary coolant pressure boundary, or important associated structures; • a reactor trip with complications; • an unplanned release of radioactivity exceeding the technical specifications or regulations; • operation outside the technical specification limits; • other events considered significant Fiscal Year Source: NUS

  13. Top 10 - Nuclear Good News • Delivery of record outputs • Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply • Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and secure energy supply • Excellent safety record • Capacity factors at record high levels

  14. Nuclear Plant Efficiency At Record High-Levels Source: NEI

  15. Top 10 - Nuclear Good News • Delivery of record outputs • Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply • Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and secure energy supply • Excellent safety record • Capacity factors at record high levels • Good economic performance

  16. US Electricity Production Cost Estimates (1981-2002)(in constant 2000 cents/kWh) Source: Pre 1995: UDI, Post 1995: RDI Modeled Production Cost

  17. Top 10 - Nuclear Good News • Delivery of record outputs • Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply • Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and secure energy supply • Excellent safety record • Capacity factors at record high levels • Good economic performance • Expect significant increase in future electricity demand

  18. Top 10 - Nuclear Good News • Delivery of record outputs • Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply • Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and secure energy supply • Excellent safety record • Capacity factors at record high levels • Good economic performance • Expect significant increase in future electricity demand • License renewals and plant life extension

  19. Top 10 - Nuclear Good News • Delivery of record outputs • Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply • Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and secure energy supply • Excellent safety record • Capacity factors at record high levels • Good economic performance • Expect significant increase in future electricity demand • License renewals and plant life extension • Environmental quality benefits

  20. Health Effects of Fossil Emissions Health Effect Study Cases/Yr Mortality HEI, Pope 30,100 Respiratory Hospitaliztns 4 pooled 20,100 Asthma ER visits Schwartz 7,160 Chronic Bronchitis Pooled 18,600 Asthma attacks Whittemore 603,000 Lost work days Ostro 5,130,000 Minor restricted activity Ostro 26,300,000 Abt Associates, Clean Air Task Force, October 2000. Emissions from fossil plants are killing > 30,000 people per year Source: Dan Keuter, Entergy

  21. Top 10 - Nuclear Good News • Delivery of record outputs • Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply • Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and secure energy supply • Excellent safety record • Capacity factors at record high levels • Good economic performance • Expect significant increase in future electricity demand • License renewals and plant life extension • Environmental quality benefits • Nuclear technology important in our lives

  22. Nuclear Technology Status • Improves medical diagnosis • Protects livestock health • Develops water resources • Preserves food • Promotes agricultural productivity • Cures human illness • Enhances human nutrition • Advances environmental science • Eradicates virulent pests • Strengthens industrial quality control • Provides energy for the hydrogen economy

  23. Hydrogen • Reduces dependency on foreign oil, gas • Worldwide production of fossil fuels (oil and gas) expected to peak in 2007 and decline thereafter • Can be renewable energy’s best friend • Serve as the battery for renewables • Overcome some of the limitations for solar, wind, hydro and biomass Hydrogen economy only makes sense if hydrogen is produced with non-fossil, non-emitting generation Source: Dan Keuter, Entergy

  24. Hydrogen from renewables MethodNeeded for 1000 MW Electrical Land Area (square miles) Photovoltaic 100 km2 @ 10% efficiency 40 Wind 3,000 Wind Turbines @ 1 MW ea. 40 - 70 Biogas60,000,000 pigs or 800,000,000 chickens 6,200 km2 of sugar beets 2,400 Bioalcohol7,400 km2 of potatoes 2,800 16,100 km2 of corn 6,200 272,000 km2 of wheat 104,000 Bio-oil 24,000 km2 of rapseed 9,000 Biomass 30,000 km2 of wood 12,000 Nuclear <1 km2 1/3 Source: Dan Keuter, Entergy

  25. Top 10 - Nuclear Issues • Financial markets • High cost for first new plant • Deregulation • Current low electricity demand • Lack of agility (construction time, licensing risk) • Infrastructure (workforce, lack of momentum) • Waste / transport • Safety culture tuning • Public perceptions (safety, security, terrorism, proliferation) • Never ending challenges (DB, TEPCO, Tokaimura)

  26. Illustrative Example: Capital Costs for AP1000s Source: Scully Capital Services, 2002

  27. Financial Issues • Financial markets not prepared to finance high costs of first new plants • Power company concerns about earnings dilution • Concerns about delays in construction • Concerns about recovering costs in a deregulated market • No credits for non-financial benefits

  28. Potential Mitigating Actions • Equity investment, loans, loan guarantees,investment tax credits, accelerated depreciation • “Standby credit facilities” for delays due to acts of government (regulator) • Power purchase agreements • Financial credits for non-financial benefits

  29. Government Stimulation is Not New • Stimulate restart of new construction • Mitigate financial issues • Risk mitigation by the government is common for all sorts of energy; not just nuclear

  30. Federal Credit Program Examples Abound Many agencies use federal credit approaches to achieve programmatic goals. Budget scoring is a fraction of credit authority based on “Subsidy rate”. Examples of federal credit programs: FY2002 ProgramAnnual creditSubsidy rate • Ginnie Mae: Mortgages $200.0 B 0.33% • DOEd: Food direct loan program $21.6 B 4.00% • SBA: General business loans $10.7 B 1.07% • DOA: Rural utility electrification $2.6 B 1.13% • DOT: TIFIA for transportation $2.0 B 4.50% • NASA: Commercial space $15.0 B TBD transportation Individual projects are evaluated by independent rating agencies before funding.

  31. The Need for Realism • Chemical Plant Hazards • Aircraft Crashes • Dirty Bombs • Terrorism • Plutonium • Waste and its transportation • Proliferation • Three Mile Island • Chernobyl • The Public Needs to Be Well Informed!!

  32. Nuclear power has best safety record Deaths from Accidents from Generating Electricity per Billion MWe-hr 101 Hydro 400-page study of 4,290 energy-related accidents: 15,000 deaths related to oil, 8,000 related to coal, 5,000 related to gas. Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland, 2001 Coal 39 10 Gas 1 Nuclear *Includes Chernobyl

  33. Percent Favor/Oppose Use of Nuclear EnergyAnnual Averages until 2002 Ref: Bisconti Research, Inc. (BRi)

  34. ANS Serves Members and the Public • Outreach activities for educators and students • www.aboutnuclear.org web site for the public • 75 annual educator workshops and exhibits • Career exhibits and programs for students • Scholarships to 80 students at 21 universities • Outreach to media • Interviews and press releases • ANS position statements • Outreach to policymakers • Washington, DC Office

  35. Grassroots Initiative The Grassroots Initiative encourages you to reach out to three audiences in order to build positive public perception about nuclear science and technology

  36. In closing … • Today’s challenges are the results of success . . . the success of a mature and productive nuclear industry that is on the verge not only of realizing the full potential of its first generation of existence, but of laying the foundation for another generation - a generation that will carry the industry from the fiftieth anniversary to the nuclear centennial - A. Howard

  37. The American Nuclear Society The Society for the advancement of nuclear science and technology to benefit humanity

  38. Top 10 Challenges for the Next Generation • Continuing Professional Development and Life Long Learning • Improving the breadth and depth of the technology • Maintaining the safety culture • Getting engaged with the Legislators - Civics 101; influencing the political ideology of governing parties • Dealing with public opinion; changing the psychology / playing field • Promoting realism • Dealing with future adverse events • Networking / mentoring • Having fun • Making a difference with your life / career

  39. Solution to International Exchange Issues?

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