Trasporti marittimi

1. Trasporti marittimi   Enrico Musso (musso@economia.unige.it; www.enricomusso.it) Francesco Parola (parola@economia.unige.it) Facoltà di Economia Università di Genova

2. 2 Riferimenti bibliografici essenziali English: C.Th.Grammenos (2002), The Handbook of Maritime Economics and Business, London: Lloyds’ of London Press Chapters: to be chosen among # 1; 2; 3; 8; one in 11, 12, 13; one in 21, 23, 27; one in 33, 34 K.Cullinane, W.K.Talley, Port Economics, Elsevier Italiano U. MARCHESE, Argomenti e problemi di economia dei trasporti marittimi, Genova, Bozzi 2001 capp. 1, 3, 14, 21, 23, 26 E. MUSSO, Città portuali: l’economia e il territorio, Milano, Angeli, 1996, cap. 2 S. SORIANI, Porti, città e territorio costiero, Bologna, il Mulino, capp. 3, 9 Il materiale proiettato durante le lezioni sarà messo a disposizione per via telematica

3. 3 Maritime transport in the global economy Shipping is one of the most international industries Key role in transport industry, world trade and globalisation

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6. 6 Maritime transport in the global economy Shipping is one of the most international industries Key role in transport industry, world trade and globalisation

7. 7 Import per transport mode, EU15, 2000

8. 8 Maritime transport in the global economy Shipping is one of the most international industries Key role in transport industry, in world trade and in globalisation

9. 9 Seaborne trade and GNP

10. 10 Maritime transport in the global economy Shipping is one of the most international industries Key role in transport industry, in world trade and in globalisation

11. 11 Shipping and the world economy The growth of the world economy and the growth in world seaborne trade interact through labour specialisation and widening of markets High sensitivity to the world economy and to “events” <3><4>

12. 12 The growth in world seaborne trade (millions of tons)

13. 13 The world seaborne trade, 1980-2000(millions of tons)

14. 14 Shipping and the world economy The growth of the world economy and the growth in world seaborne trade interact through labour specialisation and widening of markets High sensitivity to the world economy and to “events”

15. 15 Industrial cycles and sea trade

16. 16 Sea trade elasticity to the industrial production

17. 17 Macro-regions and world product

18. 18 Developments in shipping and possible excesses of globalisation

19. 19 Some dramatic changes... In the economy The boost of seaborne trade (from 525 Mt in 1950 to 5800 Mt in 2000) Spatial relocation of production The growing importance of logistics In maritime transport Ships’ size Specialisation Unitisation (containerisation) Transhipment In the industrial organization of transport industry: Cooperation: SAs, M&As, vertical integration, control of intermodal and logistic cycles , logistics outsourcing

20. 20 The demand for maritime transport ? Differences in prices of goods must be higher than transport costs

21. 21 The demand for maritime transport Differences in prices of goods must be higher than transport costs ? Differences in prices: the demand is influenced by: the world economy: growth in I/E and growth in maritime transport <> cycles in transport demand and in the world economy <> and in different industries elasticity of seaborne trade to the industrial production <> price of goods in different markets other (geographical or political) reasons: length of trips political events (wars, terrorism) free-trade oriented vs. protectionist policies

22. 22 The demand for maritime transport ? Differences in prices of goods must be higher than transport costs

23. 23 The demand for maritime transport Differences in prices of goods must be higher than transport costs ? Transport costs: the demand is influenced from: Price (freight) speed reliability safety

24. 24 Innovation and costs in seaborne transport Technical / organisational innovation: Propulsion sail steam (1860-1920) (=> reliability, liners) oil (1910-1960) Size (XX century) (economies of scale and optimal size) tanker av. Da 4,000 tons a 95,000 (peaks 500,000) (costs: -75%) dry bulk from 20,000 to 2-300,000 grain from 25,000 to 60,000 Unitisation Specialisation Cargo handling intermodality/transshipment

25. 25 Technical innovation and maritime transport supply

26. 26 Cost changes 1960-1990

27. 27 The elasticity of maritime transport demand Transport demand is a derived demand For transport of goods/commodities, it depends on: the demand elasticity of goods/commodities transported the ratio of transport costs to the costs of transported goods the replaceability of maritime transport or of specific routes For transport of passengers, it depends on: Need/reason for the travel (“demand elasticity” of the product) Ratio of the generalised cost to the revenue or to the cost Replaceability Of modes Of destination

28. 28 The organisation of the transport cycle

29. 29 The markets involved in maritime economics

30. 30 The markets of maritime transport

31. 31 Maritime transport within the transport system The world fleet (ships over 100t): Half XIX century (1860): 9 m t Y2K: 500 m t ; 83,000 ships (cargo 53%, 95% tons) LONG ROUTES (Deep Sea Shipping) 20,000 ships (competition: air: 0,1%) SHORT/MEDIUM ROUTES (short sea shipping) Short Sea Shipping (ferry, etc.) 4-6,000 DWT; rivers and canals (competition: road, rail) Link in the intermodal / complex cycle (transhipment: H/S, R) Cooperation and competition: within maritime transport between different routes between modes

32. 32 A look at the world fleet

33. 33 Which goods are transported by sea? Raw material: oil, iron, coal Agricultural: grain, sugar, refrigerates Industrial material: rubber, forest, concrete, textiles, chemical products Manufactured products: plants, machinery, cars, appliances, consumption goods Industries Energy + steel/metal 70% ca.

34. 34 Seaborne trade by economic activity

35. 35 Quantities and transport service Parcel Size Distribution (PSD)

36. 36 Liner services vs. services on demand (tramps) LINERS Small shipments The carrier owns the ship Mainly general cargo: Container (lo-lo) ro-ro multipurpose Complex management (overhead, holds, timetables, routes) Higher fixed costs Agreements to limit competition TRAMPS Big shipments (bigger than ships) Ther carrier : Owns the ship Rents it through LT e ST chartering spot Mainly bulk cargo: Tankers Dry bulk carriers management is simpler Fixed costs are lower

37. 37 Transport supply in maritime transport: tramp vs. line Differences in management Bulk: different forms of availability of the ship for the shipper ownership l.t., s.t. chartering spot Liner: much more complex (overhead, holds, timetables, routes, etc.); higher fixed costs; agreement to limit competition (conferences, then strategic alliances)

38. 38 Maritime transport supply

39. 39 Prices in maritime transport markets

40. 40 Prices over time

41. 41 The optimal sizing of ships Ships normally achieve relevant economies of scale The ship should be as big as possible, but: the bigger the ship is, the harder to fill the hold there are often physical constraints (ports and channels) the bigger the ship, the longer the stops in ports (the higher the opportunity costs of time spent in ports) A trade off is needed between the economies of scale of the ships and the growing costs of the ports node

42. 42 Economies of scale: some evidence

43. 43 The optimal sizing of ships

44. 44 The optimal sizing of ships

45. 45 The optimal sizing of ships The optimal size is bigger if / when: Fixed costs are more relevant The trip is longer The rate of moves at the terminal is less flexible The optimal sizing of the ships has relevant consequences on the size of the terminal (lecture 14) and on vertical integration (lecture 15)