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Briefing on the situation in the South-East of Ukraine (14.04 – 19.04.2016)

This briefing provides an update on the developments in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, including key events in the occupied regions of Ukraine. It discusses the implementation of Russian legislation, exportation and looting of industrial infrastructure, rising death rates due to counterfeit medicine, and the enlistment of military personnel. It also covers activities regarding the integration of Crimean enterprises and rotation of RF Navy Command staff. The briefing highlights the composition and strength of the Russian Federation Armed Forces in the frontier zone with Ukraine and Russian Aerospace Forces activity in the South-East of Ukraine. The briefing concludes with an assessment of the current outcomes of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

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Briefing on the situation in the South-East of Ukraine (14.04 – 19.04.2016)

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  1. \ GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF MILITARY COOPERATION AND PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE Briefing on the situation in the South-East of Ukraine (14.04 – 19.04.2016)

  2. SITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT • KEY EVENTS IN THE OСCUPIED REGIONS OF UKRAINE • 1.In «DNR/LNR» one is working over implementation of Russian legislature norms – 15.04.2016 according to the results of the meeting of so-called «DNR parliament» it was endorsed the bill regarding «Prosecutor`s office of «DNR»; • 2.In «DNR/LNR» the exportation and looting of Donbas industrial infrastructure has been taken place, in particular mining industry – since 04.04.2016 one started the exportation on the territory of RF equipment and property of Frunze mine (Roven`ky, Luhansk region); • 3. On the territory of «DNR/LNR» it is stated the facts regarding rising death rates of population taking medicine (mainly fordiabetes treatment, cardiovascular and lung diseases) that allows to assume that Russian side supplies pharmaceutical counterfeit products or medicine with delinquent expiration date on the temporary occupied territory of Donbas; • 4. With the aim of personnel enlistment in 1AKand 2AK of «DNR/LNR» one continues informal recruiting of military personnel of RF AF, who have to be demobilized. There were fixed purposeful events regarding activities with military personnel of units dislocated in Voronezh region in RF.

  3. SITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT • KEY EVENTS IN THE OСCUPIED REGIONS OF UKRAINE • 1. In scopes of activities regarding «integration» of the Crimean enterprises in defence-industrial complex of RF: • 07.04.2016 it was adopted the decision regarding transferring of «Sevastopol aviation enterprise» infederalproperty ofRF (earlier(24.09.2015) it was known that the holdings «Helicopters of Russia» and state corporation «Russian technologies»should become the stockholders of the enterprise).Also «Sevastopolshipyard» was franked from payment to the local budget of the Crimea (in 2015 the enterprise was «taken on lease» for 49 years byship repairingenterprise «Zviozdochka» (Severodvinsk, Arkhanhelsk region). • 2. RF Navy Command continues work regarding command staff rotation, who earlier served in Ukrainian Navy. It was reported that in accordance with the activities ofthe General Personnel Directorate of RF MOD in RF Black Sea Fleet HQ (Sevastopol) the great amount of field grade officers (without their consent) have been transferred out of Crimea in other RF regions.

  4. Russian Federation Armed Forces composition on the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk (LNR/DNR) • – up to 6 510 – up to 117 (+110 at storage bases) – up to 419 – up to 145 – up to 91 RUSSIAN FEDERATION ARMED FORCES COMPONENT IN A FRONTIER ZONE WITH UKRAINE – up to 66 air defense systems Russian Federation Armed Forces composition – 34 600 – up to 257 – up to 1102 UKRAINE – up to4launchers «Tochka-U» – up to 285 – up to 149 – up to303 – up to 461 (+) – up to 30 – up to 4 Up to 9 BTG 6CTG РТГр – до 11 – up to 16 BTG – up to 8 CTG Up to 2 BTG 1 CTG RUSSIA Up to 1 BTG Up to 2 BTG 1 CTG

  5. COMBAT AND NUMEROUS STRENGTH OF RF AF IN A FRONTIER ZONE WITH UKRAINE Along the border (Rostov region): 1 700 100 65 70 34 79 26 Grouping of 1АК and2 АК 36000 484 863 202 746 363 (antitank means) 410 (air defence means) Moldovan Transdniestrian Republic: RF AF contingent: 1 000 35 Crimea: 23 700 30 583 56 106 101 56 30 4 120 DNR/LNR territory: 6,51 227 419 91 145 66 In the Northern part of the Crimea: 1,1; 55; 18

  6. Russian Aerospace Forces activity in the South-East of Ukraine The Russian Federation continues to demonstrate a strong commitment on the use of military force to prevent the NATO naval forces deployment of in the Black Sea. Particularly, 14/04/2016 in the airspace of Krasnodar Region and the Black Sea the Russian Aerospace Forces worked out elements of a comprehensive reconnaissance and strike operations involving A-50U, Su-24MR, Su-24M and Tu-160 aircrafts.        During 13-14.04.2016 Il-20 and Il-38N reconnaissance aircrafts carried out reconnaissance flights near the eastern border with Ukraine, as well as over the Azov and Black Seas.

  7. Current outcomes of Russian-Ukrainian Conflict • 1. Russian Federation leadership continues to implement the "hybrid war" concept maintaining low-intensity conflict in the south-east of Ukraine (despite Minsk agreement reached). •     2. Unviable economic and living picture of unrecognized "DLNR project" within the existing territory entails further possible efforts to expand the boundaries of the self-proclaimed "republics" by capturing other Donbas infrastructure. Perhaps, that is because this month the Russian Federation significantly increased the transfer of military equipment, fuel and ammunition close to the line of separation. Within the units of 1AK and 2AK there is collective trainings carried out led by commanders of the Southern MD of the RF Armed Forces. •      3. The occupied territory of Ukraine turned to Russia in subsidized region, where the level of industry and agriculture is low, the proportion of pensioners is very high, and the ecological situation is critical. There is a significant deterioration of food and medical care in the region which leads to an increase in mortality figures. All this leads to frustration among the population and they do not believe in long term existence of “unrecognized DNR and LNR republics".

  8. GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF MILITARY COOPERATION AND PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE Thank You for Your attention!

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