1 / 30

Agent-Based Modeling of Supply Chains: Exploring Scenarios and Economic Impacts

This study investigates the use of agent-based models to analyze supply chains and explore different scenarios and their economic impacts. It proposes using a model to estimate the real opportunity cost for regional GDP and spatialize the model with representative agents from different micro-regions. The study also suggests working with evolutionary models to maximize results through agent learning.

tluther
Télécharger la présentation

Agent-Based Modeling of Supply Chains: Exploring Scenarios and Economic Impacts

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Supply Chains and Agent-Based Models:First Steps Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade DSA/CCST/INPE São José dos Campos, 2010

  2. Supply Chains Source: http://www.researchintouse.com/nrk/RIUinfo/valuechain/valuechain.htm

  3. Beer Game Objective: keep the stock close to zero • Positive stock is better than negative (half cost, chain effects) • Transportation time • Random demand How much to order given the current situation? Source: http://www.beergame.lim.ethz.ch/

  4. Source: http://www.beergame.lim.ethz.ch/

  5. Literatureon ABM

  6. ABM and Economic Chains • Do not work with real world data • Study only synchronization and forecasting • Focus on behaviour and learning Source: http://www.beergame.lim.ethz.ch/

  7. Economy: Input-Output Matrixes Source: (Ichihara, Guilhoto, Imori, 2008)

  8. Input-Output Matrix: One Example Economic Structure, Southeast Pará in 2004 (R$10^6) Source: (Costa, 2008)

  9. Scenarios Source: (Costa, 2008)

  10. Inverse of Leontief Matrix (I – A)-1 Projections of the scenarios are analitically computed over the inverse matrix. Source: (Costa, 2008)

  11. Results of theScenarios • Remuneration • Profit • Employment • Emissions Source: (Costa, 2008)

  12. Proposal • ReproduceChiquito’smodelusinganagent-based approach andinvestigatethesamescenarios. Tentar estimar o verdadeiro custo de oportunidade para o PIB regional. • Espacializar o modelo, com agentes representativos das sete micro-regiões. Colocar apenas os produtores iniciais da cadeia no espaço, os outros seriam onipresentes. • Trabalhar com modelos evolutivos, no qual exista um aprendizado dos agentes entre execuções do modelo, para tentar maximizar os resultados.

  13. Input-Output Matrix Economic Structure of Southeast Pará in 2004 (R$10^6)

  14. Model Components Agents Agents Connections Agents’ Properties Ignored

  15. Connections Agents Agents Connections Agents’ Properties Ignored Weights are normalized to one.

  16. Reactive Agents 0.2 0.5 B A 0.3 C • “A” received 1000: • Costs: 400 • Send 80 to “A”, 200 to “B”, 120 to “C” • Taxes: 100 • Profit: 200 • Salaries: 300 • Jobs: 1

  17. Behaviour – Dumb Agent agent.execute = function(ag) ag:Message{receiver = government, content = "money", value = ag.received * ag.taxes} ForEachNeighbor(ag, function(neigh, weigh) ag:Message{receiver = neigh, content = "money", value = ag.received * ag.costs * weigh} end) ag.received = 0 end agent.OnMessage = function(ag, message) ifmessage.content == "money"then ag.received = ag.received + message.value end end

  18. Demand Option 1 – Everything is Exogenous Exogenous

  19. Demand Option 2 – Local is Endogenous Endogenous Exogenous

  20. Demand Option 3 – Local is Mixed Endogenous Exogenous

  21. Local Demand • Exogenous: All the demand comes from the two columns of local demand. • Endogenous: Salaries goes to the families’ expenses. Part of the profits also go to the families’ expenses (28.18%) and part to investments (11.14%). • Mixed: Only salaries go the the families’ expenses. The rest is considered exogenous (public workers, social programs, retirements).

  22. Simulations • Generate the initial (exogenous) demand • The model runs until there is no more endogenous demand (i.e. demand <= $0.01)

  23. Results – Validation with the measured values

  24. Results – Scenario 2

  25. Results – Four Scenarios (Differences) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

  26. F. V. Waugh, Econometrica 18:142-154, 1950

  27. Future “Explode” the agents into societies, scaling down to the micro level

  28. Future Connect them to the land use (productive) system. Good way to couple top-down and bottom-up

  29. Future Use the new census data to generate a new economic chain and study the relations between the economic changes (of the chain) and the land use changes.

  30. Supply Chains and Agent-Based Models:First Steps Pedro Ribeiro de Andrade DSA/CCST/INPE São José dos Campos, 2010

More Related