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CENTRO DE PREVISÃO DE TEMPO E ESTUDOS CLIMÁTICOS INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS

PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IN THE SUMMER SEASON IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti. COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA IN THE WINTER SEASON IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Gabriela Müller Kelen Andrade

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CENTRO DE PREVISÃO DE TEMPO E ESTUDOS CLIMÁTICOS INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS

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  1. PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IN THE SUMMER SEASONIN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGEIracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA IN THE WINTER SEASON IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Gabriela Müller Kelen Andrade Iracema FA Cavalcanti CENTRO DE PREVISÃO DE TEMPO E ESTUDOS CLIMÁTICOS INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS ESPACIAIS

  2. ANOMALOUS PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH AMERICA • NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY • ENSO CONDITIONS (EL NINO / LA NINA) • TELECONNECTIONS • INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION • BEHAVIOUR OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS • BLOCKING SITUATIONS • ETC

  3. DROUGHT IN 2005 DROUGHT IN 1997/1998 DROUGHT IN 2000/2001

  4. THE QUESTION IS: WILL THE ANOMALIES CHANGE IN SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA? HOW THE INTENSITY OF NATURAL VARIABILITY CAN CHANGE IN THE FUTURE? MODELS

  5. DJF PRECIPITATION CMAP/CAMS CPTEC/COLA AGCM

  6. SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL (50W-40W; 15-25S) Extreme wet years composite Extreme dry years composite

  7. Extreme wet years composite Extreme dry years composite

  8. IPCC-4 MODEL SIMULATIONS MODELS HADLEY HADCM3 GFDL HADGEN MRI ECHAM CANADIAN 20 CENTURYSRES A2 PRE-INDUSTRIAL 1% CO2 INCREASE

  9. EXPERIMENTS Increase from CO2= 286.05 ppm at 1% /year rate to doubling, then constant to year 280. Other gases cte from 1860 1% CO2 EXPERIMENT High degree of global economic development (means high concentration of greenhouse gases) (2000-2100) SRES A2 Considers all anthropogenic forcings during the period of 1860 to 2000 (140 years) 20TH CENTURYEXPERIMENT Forcings agents representative of 1860 conditions constant. Include all greenhouses gases (280 years) PRE-INDUSTRIAL EXPERIMENT

  10. PERIODS OF ANALYSIS • LAST 51 YEARS FROM EACH SIMULATION • DJF (S.H. SUMMER) • 20 CENTURY : 1949-1999 • SRES A2: 2048- 2098 OR 2049-2099

  11. OBSERVED PRECIPITATION 20 CENTURY DJF 1979/1980 TO 1999/2000 MODELS SIMULATIONS MRI GFDL HADCM3

  12. OBSERVED PRECIPITATION MODELS SIMULATIONS HADGEN ECHAM CANADIAN

  13. PRE-INDUSTRIAL EXPERIMENT GFDL Difference between two periods in the pre-industrial experiment (year 71 to 280)- (year 11 to 70). The changes are very small, consistent with the absence of anthropogenic forcings.

  14. ANNUAL GFDL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 1%CO2 AND 20th century EXPERIMENTS GFDL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 1%CO2 AND PRE-INDUSTRIAL EXPERIMENT GFDL The impact on precipitation is seen in the region of South Atlantic Convergence Zone and Southeastern South America considering the two experiments.

  15. GFDL (USA) DIFFERENCES (FUTURE -20TH CENTURY) DJF 1%CO2 SRES A2

  16. HADCM3 (UK) DIFFERENCES (FUTURE -20TH CENTURY) DJF 1%CO2 SRES A2

  17. 20 CENTURY GFDL LAST PERIOD 1% CO2 INCREASE 250 hPa 850 hPa

  18. Difference between SRES A2 and 20th century wind flow HADLEY.

  19. EXTREME MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES DJF • Average of precipitation anomalies over several areas of South America • 5 extreme years (+ and -) • 20th century and SRES A2 • Hadley and GFDL

  20. AREAS W Amazonia E Amazonia N La Plata S La Plata

  21. AREAS NE SE

  22. GFDL

  23. PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES GFDL 20th century A2 ANOMALIES RELATED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF 20TH CENTURY AMAZONIA WESTERN SECTOR EASTERN SECTOR

  24. PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES (AMAZONIA) GFDL

  25. LA PLATA NORTHERN SECTOR GFDL LA PLATA SOUTHERN SECTOR

  26. GFDL PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES LA PLATA SOUTHERN SECTOR

  27. GFDL NORTHEAST BRAZIL

  28. PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES NORTHEAST BRAZIL

  29. SOUTHEAST (50W-40W; 15S-25S)

  30. PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES SOUTHEAST BRAZIL

  31. HADLEY

  32. A2 ANOMALIES HADLEY 20th century AMAZONIA WESTERN SECTOR EASTERN SECTOR

  33. NORTHEAST BRAZIL

  34. LA PLATA NORTHERN SECTOR LA PLATA SOUTHERN SECTOR

  35. SOUTHEAST Brazil

  36. HADLEY

  37. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY CORRELATIONS AREA 15S-25S; 40W-50W (SOUTHEAST) HADCM3 GFDL 20th century GFDL SRES A2 HADCM3

  38. EXTREME PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES SOUTHEAST (50W-40W; 15S-25S) 20th century GFDL HADCM3 NEGATIVE ANOMALIES HADCM3 GFDL POSITIVE ANOMALIES

  39. EXTREME PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES SOUTHEAST (50W-40W; 15S-25S)SRES A2 HADCM3 GFDL

  40. COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTH AMERICA • CNPq colaboration project Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil. • Objective: Identify frequency and intensity of extreme cold air outbreaks in the present climate and in the future. • Will the global warming affect the frequency and intensity of the cold air outbreaks?

  41. TEMPERATURE CHANGES (annual) GFDL 1% CO2 increase – preindustrial 1% CO2 increase – 20 century

  42. Frequency of cold air over Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay • Daily data at (925hPa), 850 hPa • SLP, meridional wind and Temperature • Average over areas • 52W-57W; 23S-28S (Brazil) • 52W-57W; 28S-33S (Uruguay) • 65-60W; 33-38S (Argentina)

  43. criterium • Temperature interval (0-2.5c , < 0c) • Reduction of temperature (5-8c; 8-10c; >10c) • Increase of SLP and southerly flow at 850hPa

  44. ARGENTINA STATIONS OBS: TEMP. AT 2m Reanalysis: 850hPa

  45. TEMP. 850 hPa 0-2.50 c 1960-1990 Argentina 65-60W 33-38S FUTURE

  46. TEMP. 850 hPa < 0 c 1960-1990 Argentina 65-60W 33-38S FUTURE

  47. TEMP. 850 hPa 0-2.50 c 1960-1990 Brazil 52W-57W 23S-28S FUTURE

  48. Temp. 850 hPa <00 c 1960-1990 Brazil 52W-57W 23S-28S FUTURE

  49. Next criterium • Calculate anomalies and analyze the extremes in each area. • Use SLP and meridional wind to get cases associated with frontal systems.

  50. CONCLUSION

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