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Exporting and Importing Graduates by Irene Mosca Robert E. Wright Department of Economics

Exporting and Importing Graduates by Irene Mosca Robert E. Wright Department of Economics University of Strathclyde March 12, 2010 “ESRC Festival of Social Science ”, Department of Innovation and Skills, Sheffield. Introduction

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Exporting and Importing Graduates by Irene Mosca Robert E. Wright Department of Economics

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  1. Exporting and Importing Graduates by Irene Mosca Robert E. Wright Department of Economics University of Strathclyde March 12, 2010 “ESRC Festival of Social Science”, Department of Innovation and Skills, Sheffield

  2. Introduction One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of the United Kingdom Why? • Regional focus: England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales • Export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services • Such information is being fed into the CGE analysis Slide2/23

  3. Policy Relevance: Scotland • Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland • Migration flows of students and graduates thought to “reinforce” migration flows of general population (north and west to the east) • “Belief” that building HEIs in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends • Costs versus benefits of “free higher education” • “Demographic decline” • Who “wins” from regional “trade” in graduates. • Over-education, under-employment, skills-mismatch issues Slide3/23

  4. ESRC Grant: “Higher Education, Over-education and Migration”,

  5. Data Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK. Match data from three datasets: • Students in Higher Education Institutions (2) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education Institutions • 13 cohorts of graduates: 1994/95 to 2006/2007 (3) Destinations of Leavers From Higher Education Longitudinal Survey • 1 cohort of graduates: 2002/03 Slide13/23

  6. The HESA data provide four key postal addresses: • Place of domicile • Place of study • Place of employment: 6 months after graduation • Place of employment: 36 months later • This allows us to identify different migration types: • “movers versus stayers”

  7. What are the determinants of graduate migration flows? • Fit logit regression models where the probability of migrating is related to observable characteristics • Analysis at this stage mainly focuses on Scotland • Today concerned mainly with Scottish-domiciled students studying in Scotland. • Examine migration after graduation to other countries of the UK • “Under-graduates graduates” and “post-graduate graduates” considered separately • Fit similar models for England, Northern Ireland and Wales for comparative purposes

  8. Variables Considered • 1) Sex • 2) Age at graduation • 3) Ethnic group (White or not) • 4) Disability (Disabled or not) • 5) Studied full or part-time • 6) Class of qualification • 1st • 2-1 • 2-2 • 3rd, Pass, Ordinary, etc

  9. 5)Subject area • 1. Arts and Humanities • 2. Social Science • 3. Science • 4. Social Science-led • 5. Science-led • 6. Multi-disciplinary • 6) Type of HEI • 1. College • 2. Post-1992 university • 3. Non-Russell group pre-1992 university • 4. Russell Group university • 7) Region of domicile • 8) “ HEI mover” (i.e. region of domicile is not region of HEI attended)

  10. FINDINGS • Scottish-domiciled “under-graduates graduates” • Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for: • Male • Full-time • “Non-white” ethnic background • Graduated at age 22-23 (inverted U-shape) • Science (or Science-led) qualification or “multi-disciplinary” qualification • 1st Class result (clear gradient) • Russell Group university (New Universities/Colleges much lower) • Moved to attend HEI • Regional effect (higher for Strathclyde region) • Decline between 2002-2006

  11. Scottish-domiciled “post-graduate graduates” • Probability of migrating to England or Wales or • Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for: • Male • Full-time • Non-white ethnic background • Disabled • Non-white ethnic background • Graduated at age 25-26-27 (inverted U-shape) • Science (or Science-led) or “multi-disciplinary” qualification • Russell Group university and Colleges (New Universities much lower) • Moved to go to HEI • Regional effects of domicile less pronounced • Little change in 2002-2006

  12. How big are these effects? STEP (1): Create an hypothetical under-graduate graduate with the “average” characteristics of Scottish graduates and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating. GRADUATE “A”

  13. STEP (2) Create another hypothetical under-graduate • graduate with the following characteristics: • Male • Full-time • Not disabled • White ethnic background • Graduated at age 22 • Science qualification • 1st Class result • Russell Group university • Moved to study • and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating . GRADUATE “B”

  14. STEP (3) Compare the difference in the predicted probabilities

  15. Predicted Probability of Migrating • Graduate A Graduate B • Scotland 6.0% 24.1%

  16. Predicted Probability of Migrating • Graduate A Graduate B • Scotland 6.0% 24.1% • England 0.9% 2.2% • Northern Ireland 6.2% 11.1% • Wales 8.7% 33.9%

  17. Relationship between migration and getting a “graduate job”

  18. Elias, P. and Purcell, K. (2004) SOC (HE): A Classification of Occupations for Studying the Graduate Labour Market, ESRU Research paper No. 6., University of Warwick • SOC2000: • Traditional graduate: the established professions, for which, historically, the normal route has been via an undergraduate degree programme( e.g. solicitors and doctors) • Modern graduate: the newer professions, particularly in management, • IT and creative vocational areas, which graduates have been entering since educational expansion in the 1960s (e.g. computer programmers and journalists).

  19. 3) New graduate: areas of employment, many in new or expanding occupations, where the route into the professional area has recently changed such that it is now via an undergraduate degree programme (e.g. physiotherapists and sale managers). 4) Niche graduate: occupations where the majority of incumbents are not graduates, but within which there are stable or growing specialist niches which require higher education skills and knowledge (e.g. nurses and hotel managers) 5) Non graduate:occupations for which a graduate level education is inappropriate (e.g. school secretaries and bar staff)

  20. 2002-2003 Cohort of graduates

  21. Conclusions?

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