Aflatoxin Country Assessment for Tanzania Abt Associates, Inc. December 3, 2012

1. Aflatoxin Country Assessment for Tanzania Abt Associates, Inc. December 3, 2012

2. Objectives of the Country Assessment in Tanzania To characterize the risks and economic impacts of aflatoxin contamination… …and to identify promising opportunities for control.

3. A Conceptual Framework for Aflatoxin Country Assessment Identify Key Crops of Concern Step • HighProduction • HighConsumption • High Value 1 Determine Prevalence of Aflatoxin Step • Geographical area of Concern • PercentContamination 2 • Degree of Contamination Characterize Risks of Aflatoxin Contamination and Exposure Step • Uses of Crop • Risks along Value Chain 3 Estimate Economic Impacts Step • Agriculture and Food Security • Trade • Health 4 Step 5 Identify Opportunities for Aflatoxin Control • Institutional, Legal and Regulatory Review • Control Strategies in Agriculture Trade and Health

4. Data Sources • Tanzania 2008-2009 General Household Panel Surveypart of the World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) projectthat has nationally and zonally representative data on household consumption, anthropometry, agricultural production and sales, use of inputs and extension services, and constraints to agricultural production. • Field Research in three locations from different agro-ecological zones – Njombe, Irenga; Bukombe, Shinyanga; Kongwa, Dodoma • Interviews with Ministries and stakeholders in Dar es Salaam, interviews in three rural areas • Secondary Data • Published and unpublished articles

5. Key Crops of Concern Step 1 • Maize is the most important agricultural crop in Tanzania in terms of quantity and value of production, followed by cassava • Groundnuts are important because of its promotion in weaning foods • Milk and cassava are two other potential commodities that could be assessed with additional funding. Data Source: CountrySTAT, Year, 2010

6. Aflatoxin Prevalence Step 2 LOD = Limit of Detection; ppb = Parts per Billion

7. Prevalence of Aflatoxin B1 in Groundnuts

8. Prevalence of Aflatoxin B1 in Maize

9. Characterization of Risks Step 3 • Whether the risks of aflatoxin-contamination are greater on a country’s agriculture and food security, trade and/or health is determined by: • (1) the uses of aflatoxin-contaminated crop (whether primarily for domestic human consumption, international trade, or feed use); • (2) levels of awareness about aflatoxins and aflatoxin control among farmers, traders, and consumers; • (3) the application of tolerances within the food marketing system and types of actions taken by regulators and buyers to mitigate the risk.

10. Uses of Maize and Groundnut • Majority of the maize crop in Tanzania is used for direct human consumption (FAOSTAT 2009). • 68 % -human consumption, • 19 % feed, • 12 % other residual uses, • 2% re-planting • Average agricultural households report selling 17 % of their maize produce, 2 % for feed, using 1 % for seed, and the residual 77 % for own consumption or storage (LSMS-ISA, 2008/9). • Of the 270 MT of groundnut production, 51 % was used directly as food, and 38 %was used for other purposes (FAOSTAT 2009). Contaminated Products

11. Characterization of Risks along the Value Chain

12. Agriculture –Risk of Contamination • Analysis of nationally representative data (LSMS/ISA) suggests that the use of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP), which improve plant health and prevent aflatoxin contamination is low • PESTICIDE USE: 11% for maize and 3% for groundnuts • IMPROVED SEEDS: 18% for maize and 3% for groundnuts • FERTILIZER USE: 17% for maize and 1% for groundnuts. • IRRIGATION: Only 2% of cultivated area under maize is irrigated, negligible for groundnuts Qualitative field research in three districts suggests that • Drying of crops is typically done on the ground • Storage units are rudimentary (No household report using modern structures for groundnuts, 12% use traditional structures, and 78% use sacks/open drums, 1% -4% report using improved structures for maize, 19% use traditional structures and 64% use sacks/open drums.) • There are few means for moisture measurement and control

13. Agriculture –Risk of Contamination • Awareness among farmers about the causes and consequences of aflatoxins is low or non-existent. • Agriculture extension systems do not have a set agenda for aflatoxin messaging. • Use of extension systems is low (only 19% of the households report using government extension system). • Farmers do some basic sorting and drying to gain price premium for better sorted grain. There is an opportunity in Directorate of Food Security, and the planned expansion of extension agents by 11,000.

14. Trade –Risk of Contamination in Market • Tanzania Bureau of Standards has set standards for maximum aflatoxin (and mycotoxin) concentrations in food products, Tanzania Food and Drugs Authority enforces these standards – but it is effective only for packaged goods and export-bound products • Field research and interviews with stakeholders suggest that there is no testing for aflatoxins in the domestic market. • Awareness about aflatoxins is low among sellers (and buyers). • Interviews with maize millers in Njombe indicated that if farmers bring poorly sorted maize it goes through further sorting at farmer’s cost, but without any specific attention to achieving aflatoxin standards. • Since there is no mandate for withdrawal and destruction of contaminated commodities, grain deliveries rejected by large commercial operations will likely be sold by a trader to smaller feed manufacturers that do not test for aflatoxin. Overall, it appears that aflatoxin-contaminated products could enter the domestic market without any cost to the producers, traders and retailers.

15. Health –Risk of Aflatoxin Exposure Share of Foods in Weekly Calorie Intake of Households • Consumers’ level of aflatoxin knowledge is very low in Tanzania and exacerbated by the large share of maize in household diets. • There is heavy reliance on maize-based porridges during a child’s weaning stage. • A large share of maize consumption comes from own production for agricultural households (63 %).

16. Key Risk and Expected Impact of Aflatoxin Contamination in Nigeria

17. Economic Impact-Agriculture and Food Security Step 4 • There is negligible to no aflatoxin control by farmers, yet absence of price premium for aflatoxin-free maize implies that there are no actual market losses to producers or traders of primary commodities destined for direct human consumption. • On the other hand, suppliers of susceptible commodities--maize, groundnuts-used for export market in poultry or fish feed may suffer absolute or partial rejections as well as price penalties.

18. Economic Impact-Agriculture and Food Security (continued) Step 4 • All four pillars of food security are affected but not perceived • Availability -- Aflatoxin-free maize and groundnuts is impacted by this challenge but not recognized by consumers or food markets. • Access – Farmers generally do not yet incur loss in farm revenue because of aflatoxin-contamination in their grain. Use of aflatoxin control will imply increased production costs, that may be tempered by premiums on aflatoxin-free crop • Utilization – The largest impact of contamination is on human consumption of unsafe and possibly less nutritious products that arises due to lack of aflatoxin control and lack of awareness • Stability – Since aflatoxins are dependent on climactic conditions, stability in the other three pillars will vary with prevalence

19. Food Security : Availability and Access Step 4

20. Food Security: Utilization Step 4

21. Utilization: Calorie Intake by zones.

22. Trade Impact • Domestic Trade • Farmers incur some cost for basic sorting to respond to this price differentiation. • Some degree of price differentiation for quality exists and farmers face loss for additional cost of sorting required by millers. • However, the differentiation is not because of aflatoxin or mycotoxins • Our field research found no domestic testing and awareness of aflatoxins/mycotoxins for direct human consumption Therefore, given the current conditions, there is negligible, if any, domestic market impact of aflatoxin contamination.

23. Trade Impact in Groundnuts • Historically the export share was as high as 27 percent, but has now settled to between 2-6 percent. • There were no aflatoxin related alerts in EU alerts and rejection system in the last 5 years. • EU harmonization of aflatoxin standards was in 1998. • An ICRISAT study notes that the key constraints to groundnut production unfavorable weather, management skills, access to credit, pests, diseases, access to inputs, management. Tanzania can gain from investing in improving groundnut production to compete in the international trade market. However, aflatoxins are not the only reason Tanzania has not entered this market so far.

24. Trade Impact in Maize • Historically maize exports have been low. • Maize exports have often been banned--as they are now-- because of this crop’s importance for food security. Constraints other than aflatoxin contamination is limiting export of maize from Tanzania.

25. Health Impact • Arguably the largest are of impact of aflatoxin contamination in Tanzania. • Conclusive evidence of health impact of aflatoxin is established for liver cancer – this is quantified and monetized in the country assessment for a range of aflatoxin prevalence values. • Impact on stunting is still inconclusive, with only one article establishing the relationship between aflatoxin contamination and stunting

26. Estimating Health Impact • Aflatoxin Contamination • (ng/g) • Consumption • (gram/day) Population Risk (Cancers/year/100,000 • Exposure to Aflatoxins • (ng/kg-bw/day) • Body Weight • (kg) Sum of: • Shares of HBV positive population • Cancer Potency for HBV Negative • (0.01 per 100,000) • Population • (2010 projected) • Exposure to Aflatoxins • (ng/kg-bw/day) • Liver Cancer Cases • (number/year) • Share of HBV positive population • Cancer Potency for HBV Positive • (0.3 per 100,000)

27. Consumption of Maize

28. Consumption of Groundnuts

29. Sensitivity Analysis of Impacts • Estimated the impact with varying contamination. • Even at 10 ppb the current consumption levels of maize implies that 1092 out of 1209 liver cancer cases can be attributed to aflatoxins. • In another sensitivity analysis, we estimate that if HBV prevalence is reduced to zero, the total number of liver cancer cases attributed to aflatoxins would reduce 3-fold

30. Opportunities for Aflatoxin Control in Africa Step 5 Institutional, Policy and Regulatory Environment • Setting and publicizing clear division of roles and responsibilities may yield greater regulatory efficiencies. • Leverage existing opportunities in newly formed strategies (e.g. agriculture, nutrition) and develop guidance that incorporates mycotoxins. • Each agency should also agree on a coordinated, risk-based surveillance strategy to communicate and isolate threats to the food system. • Changing the mandates of TBS, TFDA, and other specialized agencies to regulate raw commodities destined for domestic consumption. • Set procedures for withdrawal of contaminated samples and explore alternative uses for contaminated products. • Strengthen the institutional mandate for cross-ministerial collaboration in shifting production and consumer demand for food quality.

31. Opportunities for Aflatoxin Control in Africa • Scale public and private sector initiatives to increase access to and adoption of aflatoxin-reducing agricultural inputs and practices, e.g. scaling up targeted input voucher programs for the poorest farmers. • Capitalize on mobile technologies and banking services to design business models for agricultural inputs that serve the poor. • Use bio-controls such as the IITA-developed Aflasafeapproach or natural fungicides to reduce aflatoxin levels in soil and among treated crops, even after poor storage. • Introduce simple yet effective post-harvest techniques such as drying above ground or using economical solar driers to reduce adverse conditions that favor growth • Introduce improved storage methods and materials such as hermetic storage toarrest development of the responsible Aspergillus species • Use national data on agricultural stressors to target market-based solutions to address localized threats. • Use the global research agenda on aflatoxin to inform and complement domestic research, and vice versa • Agriculture

32. Opportunities for Aflatoxin Control in Africa • Trade • Raise awareness of tolerances and associated SPS practices in foreign markets of interest, and improve the capacity of grower/shippers and exporters to assure compliance • Spearhead harmonized SPS policies within East Africa that tend to reduce the mycotoxin problem (both aflatoxins and fumonisins) while facilitating cross border trade • Explore alternative uses for contaminated crops that make sense for Tanzania, and adjust official standards accordingly • Use economic incentives to shift behaviors in the supply chain while simultaneously expanding access by farmers to the best aflatoxin control solutions • Encourage the use of improved storage systems at all levels that reduce deterioration and loss, coupled with warehouse receipts programs that facilitate usage of commercial or community-managed storage as well as actions by the commodities exchange board and marketing boards (if revived) to preserve the quality, condition, and safety of agrifood products destined for human consumption • Leverage the formation of marketing boards for Cereals and other products that includes maize and groundnuts.

33. Opportunities for Aflatoxin Control in Africa • Encourage dietary diversity based on non-susceptible plant and animal products • Carry out joint campaigns between the Ministries of Health and Agriculture to raise consumer demand for good agricultural practices that lead to safer food • Improve awareness of human nutritional requirements, especially for pregnant and lactating women and during the first 1,000 days of life • Foster changes in household feeding/weaning and food use/preparation practices through behavioral change communications • Upgrade the food safety control system. particularly as it affects human health/welfare. i.e. policies and standards for mycotoxins/aflatoxins that take into account average daily intake, surveillance and testing methods, withdrawal/compensation procedures, penalties for infringements • Stay current on global research on the linkages between aflatoxins and health/nutrition while exploring avenues for further research of particular relevance to Nigeria • Pursue universal access to the HBV vaccine. • Health

34. Conclusion • Aflatoxins are carcinogens w/other health effects • Contamination can interfere with trade & commerce • Believed to impact all of Africa, including Tanzania • Cost of inaction is high, especially in human health • Range of solutions is broad, but resources scarce • Prioritization and customization is needed • Mitigation should be multi-sectoral and coordinated