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Fort Collins Science Center

Invasives Species Science Branch. Fort Collins Science Center. Science and Management Priorities for Mitigating the Impacts of Buffelgrass Invasion and Novel Fire Regimes in the Sonoran Desert First Annual Workshop, May 4-6, 2010 Tucson.

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Fort Collins Science Center

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  1. Invasives Species Science Branch Fort Collins Science Center Science and Management Priorities for Mitigating the Impacts of Buffelgrass Invasion and Novel Fire Regimes in the Sonoran Desert First Annual Workshop, May 4-6, 2010 Tucson

  2. Responsibility for Public Lands & Right-of-Ways in Pima County National Park Service Bureau of Land Management Fish & Wildlife Service Forest Service Department Of Defense Arizona State Lands Department Arizona State Parks Arizona DOT Tohono O’dham Nation Pima County Administrator Pima County NR, Parks & Recreation Pima County DOT City of Tucson Town of Oro Valley Town of Marana Town of Sahuarita Pima Association Of Gov’ts

  3. Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National Monument Tracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine Jarnevich

  4. How can a DSS help? • Resources are limited • Alternative actions are expensive • Lag time between actions and results • How to get the highest return on investment? $

  5. Alternative decisions Inventory - $$$$$ Treatment - $$$$$$$$$ Maintenance - $$$ OR? Where? Inventory - $$$$$$$$$$$ Treatment - $$ Maintenance - $$$$

  6. Multiple objectives • Public safety • Biodiversity • Tourism • Cost effective

  7. Frid et al. ( in press) Invasive Plants Science & Management

  8. Buffelgrass Spread Rates at 11 sites South slope Catalina Mts Olsson, Betancourt, Marsh & Crimmins, In Review, Journal of Arid Environments

  9. Calibrating Spread

  10. Questions? • What if control could happen in neighboring areas? • What if intensive surveys could be conducted more frequently? • What if budget could be increased? • What if treatment effectiveness could be increased? What would the cost be?

  11. Questions? • How much buffelgrass is invading from neighboring lands? • What if volunteers were not available? • What if budgets were interrupted so treatment would only happen every two years? • Where is the biggest fire risk? • Where would the most effective treatment to reduce fire risk?

  12. Model development process • Biology of species • Growth, Spread and Mortality • Management activities • Effectiveness • Amount • Cost • Scenarios • Change management actives • Change management amounts • Change uncertainties

  13. State and Transition Model

  14. Current Buffelgrass Invasion • Based on survey data • Classified into categories listed

  15. Ironwood Land Ownership • Remote = 1 mile from roads • Units here define management actions

  16. Habitat suitability • Classifies landscape into three categories • Used to change max density, probability of establishment and spread

  17. Scenarios run • No Management • Current Management • Double Budget • Manager allocated • Manage everywhere

  18. No Management • No management • No mortality

  19. Management Input Effectiveness by percent cover *Have updated values not yet incorporated

  20. Current Management 10-yr time step 2022-2062

  21. No Management vs Current

  22. Area Invaded

  23. Cost of Treatment over 50 Years

  24. Management Efficiency

  25. NEXT STEPS • Acceptance of DSS as common framework • If yes, how do we extend to all jurisdictions? • Data and research needs (e.g., suitability, spread parameters, treatment effectiveness) • Consideration of short-term risks (fire) • Who will run the models? (consultant, USGS, agency staff) • Usability (software & web user interface) • Adoption of spreadsheet for regional planning

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