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TEAC8

TEAC8. April 12, 2002 Radisson Hotel Marlborough, Massachusetts Certain maps and diagrams have been removed from this posted version due to security concerns. Agenda. Introductions RTEP Planning Assumptions Transmission Upgrades SWCT Reliability Issues RTEP RFP Process Next Steps.

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TEAC8

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  1. TEAC8 April 12, 2002 Radisson Hotel Marlborough, Massachusetts Certain maps and diagrams have been removed from this posted version due to security concerns.

  2. Agenda • Introductions • RTEP Planning Assumptions • Transmission Upgrades • SWCT Reliability Issues • RTEP RFP Process • Next Steps

  3. Preliminary Load Forecast Update David J. Ehrlich

  4. RTEP Assumptions - Load

  5. RTEP Assumptions - Load

  6. RTEP Assumptions - Load

  7. RTEP Assumptions - Load

  8. RTEP Assumptions - Load

  9. RTEP Assumptions - Load

  10. RTEP02 Assessments Overview & Generation Assumptions Peter K. Wong

  11. RTEP Generation Assumptions • Revisit RTEP01 2002 - 2006 • Reliability Study 2002 - 2011

  12. Regional Resource Adequacy Assessment • Regional Resource Adequacy Assessment based on meeting the 1 Day in 10 Years Loss of Load Expectation criterion (disconnection of firm customers).

  13. Projected Congestion Cost Assessment • Simulation to meet energy requirements using generating resources identified in reliability simulations • Energy production simulation will be conducted using a market based production simulator (IREMM)

  14. Projected Congestion Cost Assessment • Simulate congestion cost as result of transmission constraints identified in transmission studies. • Simulate congestion cost as result of different bidding strategies. • Congestion based on price differences between sub-areas (market areas)

  15. Unit Addition Assumptions • Generating unit additions are based on approved 18.4 Applications and reflect those that have started construction as of March 2002.

  16. RTEP Assumptions - Generation New Units

  17. Generation Retirements • There are no generation retirements assumed in the base case.

  18. Generating Unit Capabilities • Generating unit capabilities are based on the April 1, 2002 Capacity, Energy, Load and Transmission Report claimed capabilities. For those of you interested in a copy of this report, you can down load a copy from our web site.

  19. Generating Unit Energy • Generation from fossil fueled units will be calculated as a function of their short run marginal costs. • Generation from hydro units are modeled using a historical monthly generation profile. • Generation from pumped-storage units will reflect an assumed 10% capacity factor and 75% efficiency.

  20. RTEP AssumptionsGeneration Other Adjustments • CELT Capacity Changes • Change in effective MW due to different forced outage rates

  21. Generating Unit Availability • Generator unit availabilities are based on 5-year average of historical data (1997 - 2001). • Data Sources are as follows: • NABS for 1997 thru April 1999. • ISO Generator Outage Data Base for May 1999 thru Dec 2001.

  22. Generating Unit Availability • For new units, unit immaturity is assumed for first 3 years of operation. After this period, unit historical data and TUA is used to develop the 5 year average. • Forced outage assumptions for nuclear units with extended outages are based on NEPOOL Target Unit Availabilities except for the first year of the long outage.

  23. Generating Unit Availability • For the first year of the long nuclear outage, any outage longer than 6 months would be represented by 6 months of forced outage averaged with either historical data or TUA (TUA is used if the unit is on outage the remainder of the year).

  24. Generating Unit Availability(Percent)

  25. Interchange Assumptions for Base Congestion Analysis Interchange with other control areas • HQ - 1,500 MW Base Load • NY - 125 MW Base Load • LI sound cables (Scenario Based) • NB – 700 MW Base Load

  26. New York Imports 125 MW Note: Historical Imports Based on ISO-NE Morning Reports

  27. Hydro Quebec Imports 1310 - 1666 MW Note: Historical Imports Based on ISO-NE Morning Reports

  28. New Brunswick Imports 700 MW Note: Historical Imports Based on ISO-NE Morning Reports

  29. Fuel Price Assumptions • Fuel Price Forecast Based on Energy Information Administration’s • Annual Energy Outlook (Dec 2001 AEO) for 2004+ • Short term outlook for 2002, 2003 • “Reference Case” forecast was used

  30. RTEP Assumptions - Fuel Costs

  31. RTEP Assumptions - Fuel Costs

  32. RTEP Assumptions - Fuel Costs

  33. RTEP Assumptions - Fuel Costs

  34. RTEP Assumptions - Fuel Costs

  35. Reliability Study 2002 - 2011 ISO NE needs your input regarding unit additions assumptions for sensitivity cases. Which announced projects should be included ? • Additional units if needed for sensitivity scenarios or needed for reliability during the study period could be based on those units in the System Impact Study queue. • ISO NE can pick those units targeted for most deficient sub-areas or targeted for the areas with the highest projected locational marginal prices. • Any comments?

  36. Reliability Study 2002 - 2011 ISO NE needs your input regarding unit attrition assumptions for sensitivity cases. Possible assumptions are: • Capacity factor based - Thermal units with a capacity Factor < than X % • Age of unit based - Thermal units older than Y number of years • Fuel Type – Z% of certain fuel type

  37. Transmission Studies Update Rich Kowalski

  38. NB HQ BHE RTEP Geographic Scope(2002-2006) Adequate Reliable and Economic Supply: ME Marginal Deficient VT SME Locked In NH BOST NY CMA/ NEMA WMA SEMA RI CT SWCT NOR

  39. Transmission Studies Update • NEMA/Boston Import Capability Enhancement Study • SEMA/RI Export Capability Assessment & Enhancement Study • Northwest Vermont Reliability Study • Maine - New Hampshire Studies • Southwest Connecticut Reliability Study

  40. NEMA/Boston Import Capability Enhancement Study

  41. NEMA/Boston Study Objectives • Identify the most economical set of transmission upgrades that will reduce transmission congestion either within or into the NEMA area. • Phase 1: NEMA/Boston upgrade study approved 11/2000. Initiated a group of short-term import capability-related upgrades to be completed by 2004. • Phase 2: Investigate short-term internal NEMA/Boston upgrades. • Phase 3: Investigate long-term import and internal NEMA/Boston upgrades.

  42. NEMA/Boston Study Status • Phase 1: • Boston import capability = 3500 MW by Summer 2002 / 3600 MW by Summer 2003 • NEMA/Boston import capability = 4000 MW • When upgrades are completed in December 2003 • Phase 2: • Base cases have been set up. • Cases are currently being run. • Meeting set up for 4/18 to begin reviewing results. • Phase 3: • To be started following Phase 2

  43. SEMA / RI Export Capability Assessment And Enhancement Study

  44. SEMA / RI Study Objectives • Determine the export capability of the SEMA / RI area. • Evaluate alternatives to improve the export capability for both the near-term and the long-term time horizon.

  45. SEMA / RI Current Status • Preliminary thermal and stability analyses performed to identify SEMA/RI and SEMA simultaneous transfer limits • Draft stability report has been distributed for comment to the NEPOOL Stability Study Group for their input prior to completion of study • Draft Thermal and Voltage report to NEPOOL Transmission Task Force expected in May.

  46. SEMA / RI Upgrades • Stability Study recommended a number of breaker modifications. • (2) West Medway breakers have already been successfully modified for IPT operation. • Sherman Road and Millbury IPT modification scheduled for completion prior to this summer. • Stability Results: E-W = 2300 MW SEMA/RI = 2400 MW SEMA = 1450 MW • Thermal limits being updated to identify conditional dependencies.

  47. Northwest Vermont Reliability Study

  48. Northwest Vermont Study Objectives • Evaluate the effectiveness of a variety of system upgrades to satisfy load growth while maintaining reliability • Develop a multi-step multi-project least cost comprehensive plan for upgrading the regional transmission system

  49. Northwest Vermont Current Status • Thermal / Voltage Analysis • In progress • Meeting held 1/30 to review preliminary results/ issues • Preliminary SCED analysis complete • Meeting scheduled with all parties for April 3

  50. Limited Generation within NW VT Pocket • McNeil 50 MW Wood Burner • Run of River Hydro with very limited summer peak potential • <100 MW of 60’s and earlier vintage ICU’s • Existing (Reliable) Facilities fully utilized during present summer peak to maintain first contingency coverage • As load grows, exposure to long term outage of HVDC Converter, STATCOM, submarine cables or major transformers results in inability to maintain first contingency coverage over increasing periods

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