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Local Risk Assessment – Action plans for safer communities –

Local Risk Assessment – Action plans for safer communities –. Urban risk is increasing The GRIP approach Risk assessment – Damage scenarios Action Plans for DRM based on scenarios Institutionalization of DRM Governance for implementation. This presentation. Cities are growing rapidly…

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Local Risk Assessment – Action plans for safer communities –

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  1. Local Risk Assessment – Action plans for safer communities –

  2. Urban risk is increasing The GRIP approach Risk assessment – Damage scenarios Action Plans for DRM based on scenarios Institutionalization of DRM Governance for implementation This presentation

  3. Cities are growing rapidly… Urban population increases by 180,000 people every day (UN-Habitat) More than 90% of population growth in developing countries takes place in cities One third of the population in developing countries live in informal/illegal settlements (World Bank) Urban risk is increasing

  4. Living under risk Explosive growth of urban areas Population of cities in LA will increase by 50% in the next 25 yrs (OFDA) There are not appropriate land-use regulations nor the proper mechanisms to enforce or implement them

  5. Living under risk Informal Construction

  6. Living under risk Codes are not enforced The professionals are not properly prepared There are not control mechanisms Lack of personnel and resources

  7. Living under risk There is no awareness of the risk Due to lack of awareness and information, members of the community increase the risk by making uninformed decisions

  8. 1- The present risk is the result of many years of lack of planning It will take some time to solve (reduce) the problem 2- The reduction of the risk is everybody’s work, not only work for authorities or technical people The disaster affects everybody It is a very complex problem We ALL contribute to increase or decrease the risk The time to start is now! What we need to understand

  9. Assessment - To understand the problem and its magnitude Planning - To create plans based on the assessment Implementation- To put the plans into practice Institutionalization A long term process with the active participation of all the members of the society The GRIP Approach

  10. Specific Objective: To initiate long-term risk management processes in local areas To achieve this, three tasks are set up Raise awareness, both locally and internationally, of the local risk and the need to reduce it Incorporate all the sectors of the community in the risk management activities Set up the conditions for the long-term continuation and institutionalization of risk management activities The GRIP approach

  11. Main Activities • The projects are implemented in 18-24 months • Assessment of the Local Risk • Preparation, by local experts, of damage scenarios • Preparation of a Plan to reduce Local Risk • Using scenarios, development of locally-supported Action Plan • Setting up the conditions for implementation • Development of local capacities to implement this plan

  12. Implementation Plan

  13. Probable earthquakes Antofagasta: Magnitude 8.0 , Epicentral distance 60 km Guayaquil: Magnitude 8.0 , Epicentral distance 200 km Tijuana: Magnitude 6.5 , Epicentral distance 10 km Methodology Theoretical estimation Earthquake damage scenario Interviews with system managers Risk assessment phase

  14. Wooden and mixed structures 100 80 Tipo A 60 Tipo B Tipo C 40 Tipo D 20 0 6 7 8 9 MMI Intensity Assessment of a City’s Seismic Risk Vulnerability functions Damage estimates

  15. Community’s participation in assessment Interviews with the people in charge of the city systems Tijuana: Health sector Zigong: Public order

  16. Examples of estimated impact Damage to Buildings in Tijuana

  17. Displaced people in Tijuana Estimation based on damage to buildings People in destroyed buildings + 1/3 people in severely damaged buildings TOTAL: 130.000 Example of Human Impact

  18. Community’s participation in assessment • Scenario Workshops • Representatives of all the sectors of the society • understand • discuss • improve • the risk assessment Guayaquil (67 people) Tijuana (50 people)

  19. Generate ideas, based on the assessment, of activities that, if implemented, will reduce the city’s risk Work with all related institutions and people to delineate those activities and prepare an Action Plan Present the Action Plan to representatives of all sectors for them to: understand discuss adopt the Plan Risk Management Planning

  20. Community’s participation in planning Action Plan Workshop in Antofagasta, Chile Action Plan for Guayaquil, Ecuador

  21. Engaging all the sectors of the community A well representative Local Advisory Committee Well attended Workshops Informing the community about the project Effective collaboration with mass media Developing legal and financial frameworks Integration in Municipal budgets, incorporation of Industry, financial sector (banks, insurance) Creating or strengthening RM institutions Institutionalization

  22. Informing the community Antofagasta Guayaquil

  23. Developing financial frameworks DRM Investment Strategy for Tijuana Line e = Investing $15 Millon in 25 years

  24. Organigram

  25. Building and protecting the future is today’s workThank you!!

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