1. Aeronautical Decision Making with an emphasis on weather Quincy, Illinois (KUIN) Bob Linenweber, FAA Safety Team November 18, 2006

7. Safer Skies The Safer Skies agenda originated in 1998 when the Administrator and her team identified the most critical and most common causes for aviation accidents.

8. Safer Skies The Safer Skies program in general is about identifying risk issues and doing something about them.

9. Safer Skies

10. In a recent five year period, there were 9,087 general aviation accidents resulting in 2,976 deaths Dangerous Business

11. 27% of all aviation accidents are weather-related. Over 90% of all weather accidents were caused by pilot error, deficiencies in pilot judgment, and other pilot shortcomings. Resulting in 254 deaths per year 27% 94% 254 deaths Dangerous Business

12. 254 deaths per year that can be attributed to weather and pilots’ inability to cope with the conditions and the circumstances Dangerous Business

13. Loss of control on landing or take-off due to pilots inability to manage adverse winds 50% Risks

14. VFR into IMC: Of 580 accidents, 82%, were fatal 82% Risks

15. Mechanical Failures 6% Risks

16. Pilot Responsibility It’s not weather that crashes airplanes, it’s pilots making bad decisions about weather

17. An instrument rating indicates the holder has received enough training to know when he should stay on the ground.

18. Pilot Responsibility Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM) A systematic approach to the mental process used by pilots to consistently determine the best course of action in response to a given set of circumstances

20. PPP A simple way to apply the decision making process is the three P’s . . . Perceive, Process, Perform

21. Information Management A pilot needs to go beyond just knowing about weather;

22. Information Management A pilot needs to know how to plan for it and deal with it in the course of a flight

23. Knowledge Training Discipline Solutions

24. KNOWLEDGE Common Sense Education Solutions

25. Solutions KNOWLEDGE • Common Sense • Education

26. Solutions TRAINING • Initial training

27. Solutions TRAINING • Initial training • Additional Aircraft & Ratings

28. Solutions TRAINING • Initial training • Additional Aircraft & Ratings

29. Solutions TRAINING • Initial training • Additional Aircraft & Ratings • Competency Checks

30. Solutions TRAINING • Initial training • Additional Aircraft & Ratings • Competency Checks • Recurrent Training

31. Solutions DISCIPLINE • Practice

32. Solutions DISCIPLINE • Practice • Currency

33. Solutions DISCIPLINE • Practice • Currency • Review

34. Solutions DISCIPLINE • Practice • Currency • Review • COMMITMENT

35. Solutions Commitment

36. Weather Information • Presentation • Understanding

37. Weather Sources Appropriate Sources • NWS • AFSS/FSS

38. Weather Sources Appropriate Sources DUATS

39. Weather Sources Appropriate Sources DUATS DTN

40. Weather Sources Appropriate Sources DUATS DTN WSI

41. Weather Sources Appropriate Sources DUATS DTN WSI FSS

42. Weather Sources Appropriate Sources DUATS DTN WSI FSS NWS

43. Weather Sources Appropriate Sources DUATS DTN WSI FSS NWS ARTCC

44. Weather Sources Appropriate Sources DUATS DTN WSI FSS NWS ARTCC TWEB/ AWOS/ASOS/ATIS

45. Weather Sources NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

46. Weather Sources NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER

47. Weather Sources NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

48. Weather Sources NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION

49. What Do You Need? LOCAL FLIGHT • Wind • Visibility • Developing Weather • Current information per FAR 91.103

50. What Do You Need? BEYOND • Current information per FAR 91.103 • Complete weather forecast for route and destination • Understanding of the effects of forecast weather on your flight