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STRATEGIC FORCE ATROPHY

The U.S. strategic forces face significant erosion in key areas, including senior leadership interest, expertise, research & development, and congressional support, jeopardizing national security. A 2007 Defense Science Board report highlights the critical state of nuclear weapons production capabilities, emphasizing that current constraints hinder future defense strategies. The comparison of U.S. and Russian stockpiles reveals alarming asymmetries. As we question the logic of nuclear disarmament, the need for a reassessment of our strategic deterrence policies has never been more urgent.

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STRATEGIC FORCE ATROPHY

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  1. STRATEGIC FORCE ATROPHY Weaknesses highlighted in numerous reports. Erosion of: • Senior leadership interest • People and expertise • Research and development • Technology • Infrastructure • Congressional support “Our lack of nuclear weapons production capability – and our stricture against not only development but design – holds our future hostage.” Defense Science Board 2007 Summer Study

  2. THE APPROACHING DELIVERY PLATFORM CLIFFS ALCM/ACM BOMBER MINUTEMAN III TRIDENT D-5 SSBN/SSGN

  3. STRATEGIC COSTS(1990 - 2008) DOD TOA (CY$B) STRATEGIC FORCES (CY$B) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 INCREASE=34% 6.5% of FY90 DOD TOA C O S T DECREASE=55% NON-STRATEGIC FORCES 2.1% of FY08 DOD TOA STRATEGIC FORCES 1990 2008 1990 2008 FISCAL YEARS CY$: FY07

  4. Strategic Warheads Tactical Warheads Production Capacity Strategic Warhead Uncertainty Tactical Warhead Uncertainty US / RUSSIAN STOCKPILE COMPARISON RUSSIAN STOCKPILE U.S. STOCKPILE + UNCERTAIN CHEMICAL CAPABILITY + UNCERTAIN BIOLOGICAL CAPABILITY 2005 2009 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 STOCKPILE ASYMMETRIES MORE PRONOUNCED AT LOWER LEVELS

  5. THE ILLOGIC OF ZERO • Is it feasible? • Is it verifiable and enforceable? • Is it inherently stabilizing and hence sustainable? • Is it desirable? “The means for creating a world without actual nuclear weapons would have to be of a basic political kind, not a matter of technical arms control. Secure nuclear abolition would be consequence, not cause; and in the journey it has to be cart, not horse.” Sir Michael Quinlan

  6. 2 1.5 Wartime Fatalities (% of world population) WW I 1 .5 0 1800 1600 1700 1900 STRATEGIC DETERRENCE A PARADIGMCHANGE IN WARFARE 2.5 WW II 2000 “Better a world with nuclear weapons but no major war than one with major war but no nuclear weapons.” Sir Michael Quinlan

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