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Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Metropolitan Prosperity

Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Metropolitan Prosperity. Joseph Cortright. Roadmap. About Our Study Why the Young & Restless Matter The Movement of Talent Some Implications. Participating Cities. Memphis, TN Philadelphia, PA Portland, OR Providence, RI Richmond, VA

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Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Metropolitan Prosperity

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  1. Talented Young Workersand the Prospects forMetropolitan Prosperity Joseph Cortright

  2. Roadmap • About Our Study • Why the Young & Restless Matter • The Movement of Talent • Some Implications

  3. Participating Cities • Memphis, TN • Philadelphia, PA • Portland, OR • Providence, RI • Richmond, VA • Tampa, FL

  4. Knowledge Economy Keys Places prosper when the create and attract talented workers in knowledge based industries.

  5. National Context Why the Young and Restless Matter to Metropolitan Prosperity

  6. Fewer 25 to 34 year-olds • U.S. 25 to 34 Year Old Population • 1990: 43.5 Million • 2000: 39.6 Million • Today • 3.9 Million Fewer • a 9% Decline

  7. A Critical Demographic As a group, 25 to 34 year-olds are: • Well-Educated • Highly Mobile • Hard-Working • Adaptable • Cheap (Relative to Older Workers) = H.R.’s Dream Demographic

  8. Big Shifts Among Metros % Change 25-34 year-olds, 1990 to 2000 50 Most Populous Metro Areas Average of Top 50 Metros

  9. Last 30 Years Boomers enter prime work years Women’s labor market participation nearly doubles Educational attainment up sharply = Labor Surplus Next 30 Years Boomers retire; many early Women’s labor market participation plateaus Educational attainmentplateaus = Labor Shortage Future Outlook: Labor Shortage

  10. Competing in a Knowledge Economy • Talent is the critical resource • “The Creative Class” matters • Skilled, creative workers • Attractive, tolerant places • Innovative, successful economies • The Young and Restless are the “creative class” that is up for grabs

  11. Creative Class Correlates to Young Talent

  12. Youth and Tolerance Also Correlated

  13. Quantitative Analysis • National Context: Why this matters • Overall Trends • Changing Faces • Talent • Moving In, Moving On • Local Patterns

  14. Benchmark Cities Have More 25-34s Rank Metropolitan Area Percent 25-34 1 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 18.2% 6 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 16.4% 10 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 15.7% 13 San Diego, CA MSA 15.5% 15 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 15.4% 18 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 15.2%

  15. Changing Faces Racial and Ethnic Trends Reshapingthe Look of the Young and Restless

  16. Young Adult Population More Diverse Percent of Population, 1990 and 2000

  17. Growth Rates Varied by Demography Percent Change, 1990 to 2000

  18. Fastest growing segment of the young and restless since 1990 Hispanic 25-34: Up 2.3 million (+57%) Non-Hispanic 25-34: Down 5.3 million (-17%) San Antonio 25-34 year-olds are majority Hispanic; Los Angeles (48%), Miami (46%) Low College Attainment an issue (11% vs. 31.9% for all 25-34s) Hispanics

  19. Declining slightly, less than whites Generally becoming more dispersed Magnet Cities for African-Americans, Atlanta, Orlando, Charlotte, Minneapolis Atlanta 36% increase in 25-34 year-old African Americans 24% college attainment (vs 18% nationally) African-Americans

  20. Smart Women College Attainment Rate of 25 to 34 Year Olds, 2000 Gender 1990 2000Change Men26.9%30.3% +3.4% Women 26.3% 33.6% +7.3% Change in College-educated 25 to 34 Year Olds, 1990-2000 Gender NumberPercent Men + 150,000 +4.2% Women + 624,000 +18.0%

  21. Variations in College Attainment 25-34 year-olds with a 4-Year Degree, 2000 Rank Metropolitan Area 4 Year Degree 6 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 38.9% 7 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 38.1% 14 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 34.2% 27 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 29.0% 30 San Diego, CA MSA 28.7% 44 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 24.6%

  22. Biggest Shifts in Talented 25-34s Change in College Educated 25-34s Rank Metropolitan Area Change, 1990-2000 2 Charlotte, NC MSA 56.6% 3 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 56.2% 4 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 50.0% 5 Atlanta, GA MSA 46.2% 6 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 40.1% 42 St. Louis, MO, MSA -0.7% 45 New Orleans, LA MSA -4.3% 49 Providence, RI MSA -7.0%

  23. Moving In, Moving On Migration of the Young and RestlessAmong US Metropolitan Areas

  24. Change Data Compare 1956-65 birth cohort in 1990 vs. 1966-75 birth cohort in 2000 (Different people,same age) Migration Data Compare 1966-75 birth cohort in 1995 vs. 1966-75 birth cohort in 2000(Same people,different age) Population Change vs. Migration

  25. Between 1995 and 2000, 6.6 million 25 to 34 year-olds moved from one metropolitan area to another Migration rates vary by a factor of four Well-educated are the most likely to move, especially long distances Millions Move

  26. Local Patterns Where do the 25 to 34 year-olds Live in Metro Areas?

  27. Central or Suburban Growth? Change in 25-34 year-olds Population 1990-2000 Metropolitan Area Within 3 Miles Outside 3 Miles Seattle--Tacoma, WA CMSA +32% - 6% Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA +30% +10% Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA +24% +14% San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CMSA +17% - 6% Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA - 2% +23% Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA -5% +25% Charlotte, NC--SC MSA -12% +19%

  28. Smart in the Center or Burbs? 25-34 year-olds with a 4-Year Degree, 2000 Metropolitan Area Within 3 Miles Outside 3 Miles Seattle--Tacoma, WA CMSA 56% 32% Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 54% 26% Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 46% 37% San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CMSA 67% 38% Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA 40% 46% Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 12% 25% Charlotte, NC--SC MSA 35% 32%

  29. 25 to 34 Year-olds Increasing Increase in 25 to 34 Year-olds, 1990-2000

  30. College-educated young adults Concentration of College-educated 25-34 year-olds

  31. Close-in Neighborhods Key Concentration of College-educated 25-34 year-olds 3 miles from CBD Growth of 25 to 34 year-olds 1990 to 2000 +30 Percent Share of25 to 34 year-olds with a 4-year degree 54 Percent

  32. Qualitative Findings • Focus Groups--Recent Movers • What motivates well-educated 25 to 34 year olds to move?

  33. What the Young and the Restless Want from Cities Open the Circle and Welcome Newcomers Welcome New Ideas Encourage Diversity Create a Place Where People Can Be Themselves Let Young People Live Their Values and Create a New History

  34. What the Young and the Restless Want from Cities Build Vibrant Places Take Care of the Basics Be the Best at Something Sell Your Regional Assets Know What You Want to Be and Be Willing to Take Risks to Achieve It

  35. Prosperity in a Knowledge Economy • Attracting Talent • Capitalizing on Distinctiveness

  36. Three other studies address migration Bill Frey: “Metropolitan Magnets” Paul Gottlieb: “Brain Drain” Census Bureau: Differences from Other Studies

  37. “Metropolitan Magnets for International and Domestic Migrants” (Oct. 2003) International and domestic migration among 81 Largest Metros based on Census, 1995-2000 migration data BUT: No age group data “Domestic migrant magnets all characterized by lower-density” (p. 9) Frey: Metro Magnets

  38. Labor Supply Pressures and the "Brain Drain”, (January 2004) “Northeast & Midwest have highest proportion of young & educated; counters notion of a brain drain.” BUT: Doesn’t measure change in educational attainment of 25-34s from 1990 to 2000 Year 2000 snapshot on attainment; change measures have life cycle bias--compares location of 15 to 24 year olds in 1990 to 25 to 34 year olds in 2000; doesn’t separate out effects of international migrations Gottlieb: Brain Drain

  39. Participating Cities • Memphis, TN • Philadelphia, PA • Portland, OR • Providence, RI • Portland, VA • Tampa, FL

  40. Research Agenda • Detailed Quantitative Analysis • Demographics, migration, and location of 25-34 year-olds in 1990 and 2000 • Focus on Top 50 US Metro Areas • (All with populations >1 million) • In-Depth Qualitative Analysis • Focus groups with young workers in participating cities • Recent movers, college plus education

  41. Neoclassical growth model:Formal Version Output is a function of capital and labor

  42. Neoclassical Growth Model: Simplified Version

  43. Capital: More & Bigger Factories

  44. More & Smarter Workers

  45. New Growth TheoryFormal Version Output is a function of capital and labor and technology

  46. New Growth Theory:Simplified Version

  47. Creating New Ideas

  48. What makes economies grow? What does economic theory have to say?

  49. Clusters Specialize Seattle - Software Portland - Semiconductors - SME/EDA - Display - Computers Minneapolis - Computers - Medical Devices Boston - Computers Salt Lake City - Software - Medical Devices - Storage Technology Sacramento - Computers Silicon Valley everything! Denver - Telecommunications - Satellite - Storage San Diego - Communications Research Triangle Park - Software Phoenix - Semiconductors Atlanta - Database - Telecommunications Austin - Semiconductors - Computers - SME

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