Business Resilience Post-Earthquake: Historical Insights and Future Preparedness

1. Doing Business After a Major Bay Area Earthquake JEANNE PERKINS ABAG Earthquake Program Manager

2. What REALLY Happened in the 1906 Earthquake

3. Megadisasters change the social and political landscape as effectively as the physical landscape.

4. Devastation from disasters leads to a desire to return to normal – even “reframing” the 1906 earthquake as a fire.

5. Deaths were minimized – recovery was stressed. Headline on April 21, 1906

6. Role of 1915 Pan-Pacific Expo

7. Earthquakes compete against other issues more effectively following a disaster. Priorities change creating windows of opportunity.

8. Current emphasis on transportation, water supply, and continuity of government services started in 1906.

9. Lessons from disasters are transferable.

10. Direct Employment Loss Direct Wage Loss (Current $) Direct Lost GRP (Current $) Total GRP (Annual in Current $) Businesses Damaged or Destroyed Loma Prieta Hurricane Katrina (Bay Area) (New Orleans Region) 7,100 190,000 $85 million $3.2 billion $286 mill-$1.2 bill $5 billion $282 Billion $48 billion 4,316 20,500 Note: Employment, Wage and GRP loss up to January 2006 for New Orleans Region Economic Impacts: Comparing Loma Prieta and Hurricane Katrina

11. What Are Natural HAZARDS?

12. Earthquake-Related Hazards • Ground Shaking • Fault Rupture • Liquefaction • Landslides • Tsunamis

13. Weather-Related Hazards • Flooding • Landslides • Wildfires • Drought

14. Our History

16. What Are the HAZARDS in MY Area?

24. Transportation Impacts

25. 2 PAST EARTHQUAKES • 142 road closures in Loma Prieta • 140 road closures in Northridge 18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES • 17 Bigger than these earthquakes • 0 Bigger than New Orleans

26. What Happens - M 7.9 on San Andreas Fault -- • 1,330 total closures • Problems along I-280 and Hwy. 101 in San Mateo Co. • San Francisco a mess • San Mateo and Marin county coasts isolated • Problems near Bay at OAK, SFO and SJC

27. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault -- • 1,650 total closures • Most toll bridges not usable • Some problems in the Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in Marin, SF and San Mateo counties • Entire East Bay isolated

28. Recovery Timeline

29. What Does This Mean? • There were only 142 road closures in Loma Prieta. • There were only 140 road closures in Northridge. • Our model for predicting the potential impacts of these closures should be Kobe, not either of these California earthquakes.

30. Toll Bridge Seismic Retrofit Program Status – April 2006

31. Bay Area State-Owned Toll Bridges San Francisco Bay Area has seven state-owned toll bridges: • San Francisco-Oakland Bay • San Mateo-Hayward • Dumbarton • Richmond-San Rafael • Carquinez • Benicia-Martinez • Antioch * * Golden Gate Bridge owned and operated by the Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District (GGBHTD)

32. BayArea State-Owned Toll Bridges

33. LomaPrieta Earthquake – Oct. 17, 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake • 6.9 magnitude earthquake • 60 miles away • San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge closed for one month due to partial collapse

34. Current Toll Bridge SRP Status

35. SFOBB West Approach Seismic SafetyReplacement Project West Anchorage Fremont St Fifth St

36. Skyway – Precast Segment Lift SFOBB East Span Project – Final Contract Awarded - April 18, 2006

37. Utility System Impacts

38. Liquefaction- Results Selected Damage to Foundations Roads & Sidewalks Sand boils Pipeline Breaks

40. What Happened in the “Very High” Liquefaction Areas - Loma Prieta Quake • Water - 4-5 times more breaks • Natural Gas - 3 - 11 times more breaks • Roads - 1.3 times more surface, but 25 times more costly

41. Liquefaction Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward

42. What Does This Mean? • Modeling performed by ABAG estimated approximately 5,500 water line breaks or ruptures. • Of more importance is the number of water aqueducts crossing faults. • Assume that water may be disrupted for weeks or months – not 72 hours.

43. Airport System Impacts

44. What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault • SFO probably CLOSED • OAK probably CLOSED • SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.

45. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault • SFO probably disruption • OAK probably CLOSED • SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.

46. HousingImpacts

47. 2 PAST EARTHQUAKES • 16,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Loma Prieta Earthquake • 48,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Northridge Earthquake 18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES • 13 Bigger than Loma Prieta • 8 Bigger than Northridge • 0 Bigger than New Orleans

48. What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault • 159,900 uninhabitable housing units • (300,000 – Katrina) • 359,000 people displaced • 105,700 peak shelter population

49. What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault • 155,700 uninhabitable housing units • 300,000 - Katrina • 356,600 people displaced • 110,300 peak shelter population

50. Single Family Homes 9% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare