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規劃 Planning

規劃 Planning

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規劃 Planning

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  1. 規劃Planning 交通大學 任維廉 教授 at NCTU, 2012

  2. 1. 規劃 (Planning) • Business Proposal (Thesis, project): Target market segment, Product offering, Distribution & sales plan, Indicate advertising & promotion plan, System & operations requirements, Financial forecast, Risk & sensitivities, Milestones & timelines. • 交大管院AACSB 認證,女兒婚禮 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 2

  3. Contents 1.1 What and Why of Planning 1.2 Strategic Planning 1.3 Setting Goals and Developing Plans 1.4 Contemporary Issues in Planning 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 3

  4. 1.1 What Is Planning ?(規劃) • A primary managerial activity (POLC) that involves: • Defining the organization’s goals • Establishing an overall strategy for achieving those goals • Developing plans for organizational work activities. (計畫) • Types of planning • Informal: not written down. • Formal: written, specific, and long-term focus, involves shared goals for the organization. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 4

  5. The Planning-Controlling Link 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 5

  6. 1.1 Why Do Managers Plan? * Formal planning is associated with Positive financial results. * The quality of planning and implementation affects performance more than the extent of planning. • Purposes of Planning • Provides direction • Reduces uncertainty • Minimizes waste and redundancy • Sets the standards for controlling (POLC) • 未戰而廟算勝者,得勝多也。 • Proper prior planning prevents poor performance. • No plan, micro-management 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 6

  7. 1.2 Strategic Planning 1. 辨認目前使命,目標,策略 Mission: the firm’s reason for being. The scope of its products and services, e.g. 鐵路,Shell, Hollywood, McDonald 2. 衡外情:環境之機會、 威脅 3. 量己力:組織之優缺點 Core Competence: major value-creating skills and capabilities. 人無我有,人有我優,人優我轉。 4. 形成策略 The decisions and actions that determine the long-run performance of an organization. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 7

  8. Identifying the Organization’sOpportunities 本公司「可能做」(環境的機會),「能做」(公司的長處) 之間的搭配 Organization’s Resources/Abilities Organization’s Opportunities Opportunities in the Environment 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 8

  9. Strategic Management Process(1~4: Strategic planning) External Analysis ● opportunities ● threats Identify the organization’s current mission, goals, and strategies SWOT Analysis Formulate strategies Implement Strategies Evaluate Results Internal Analysis ● strengths ● weaknesses 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 9

  10. 策略討論 • 剛開始什麼賺錢的業務都嘗試 (雨露均霑),但後來漸漸學會取捨、聚焦。剛從學校畢業的藝術家什麼作品都做,朱銘只專於太極系列。 • What’s your unique value? 選擇你最擅長、最喜歡的領域,持續鑽研,再設法提升,才能凸顯差異性(不落入惡性循環)。 • 3. A set of hypotheses about cause and effect. 理想 vs. 目前樣子,what to do? what not to do? 取捨,聚焦。金融海嘯前,福特汽車集團賣掉旗下五款品牌(Jaguar, Land Rover, Volvo, Aston Martin, Mercury),專注福特和林肯。 • 4. Kim & Mauborgne, Blue Ocean Strategy: How to create uncontested market space and make the competition irrelevant, 提升、降低、創造、消去某些因素。太陽劇團,Swatch, QB House. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 10

  11. 策略實例 1. CQS (Cost, Quality, Speed), FBC (Faster, Better, Cheaper) , Cost down, 做得更多, 做得更好 vs. Apple, Innovation, 做得不同 2. Andrew Grove 的早餐工廠,先減法,再乘法(複製) 3. 客觀化的定位,差異化的優越性,聚焦深耕。 (戴勝益) 4. 隆中對,農夫與律師, 牙醫師,松竹梅, Union Bank, Shouldice. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 13

  12. 策略之三個層級 1. 公司層級 (corporate) 2. 事業層級 (business):SBU 3. 功能層級 (functional) 討論:network level 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 14

  13. Levels of Organizational Strategy 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 15

  14. 公司層級策略 • 1. 總策略:成長,穩定,精簡 • 2. 公司投資組合 (或BCG) 矩陣:金牛,明星,問號,狗 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 16

  15. Grand Strategies Valuable Strengths Firm Status Critical Weaknesses Environmental Status Abundant Environmental Opportunities Critical Environmental Threats Corporate Growth Strategies Corporate Stability Strategies Corporate Stability Strategies Corporate Retrenchment Strategies 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 17

  16. The BCG Matrix Market Share Low High High Anticipated Growth Rate Low Stars Question Marks Cash Cows Dogs 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 18

  17. 事業層級策略 (Michael Porter) 1. 競爭優勢之創造與持續 2. 競爭策略之創造與持續 產業分析:五種作用力 基本策略:成本領導,差異化,集中 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 19

  18. 競爭優勢 1. 價值創造 = 對顧客的價值 - 生產成本 2. 競爭優勢之一般性基礎: 效率,品質,創新,顧客回應 個案:Intel 在哪個構面還不夠好? 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 20

  19. Forces In The Industry Analysis New Entrants Threat of New Entrants Bargaining Power of Suppliers Industry Competitors Suppliers Buyers Current Rivalry Bargaining Power of Buyers Substitutes Threat of Substitutes 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 21

  20. Three Generic Competitive Strategies • Cost LeadershipStrategy • Seeking to attain the lowest total overall costs relative to other industry competitors. • DifferentiationStrategy • Attempting to create a unique and distinctive product or service for which customers will pay a premium. • FocusStrategy • Using a cost or differentiation advantage to exploit a particular market segmentrather a larger market. 討論:創新與量產循環,stuck in the middle 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 22

  21. 描繪企業之策略圖:西南航空公司 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 23

  22. Accor Formula Hotel 24

  23. 策略群組 1. 製藥業:Merck, Pfizer, Eli Lilly 高研發支出, 高價格;其他藥廠係低低群組。 2. 煙草葉:Philip Morris (prospector), Reynolds (analyzer), American (defender), Liggett (reactor) 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 25

  24. 策略創新Customer Service Strategies, Innovation Strategies Levitt: 未來屬於那些在機會出現前就發現他們的人。 「創造一個需求(或一個市場)並去滿足它。」的案例: • 西南航空:鎖定利基市場,最快最便宜。道歉長。 • FedEX: overnight delivery! • 戴爾電腦:跳過經銷商,產品直接賣給你。 • Wal-Mart: 鄉村包圍城市,點線面突圍。 • Value integrator: iPhone as platform • Total solution provider: IBM * 交換公司忠誠度 (Frequent Flyer Program): 星空聯盟 (Star Alliance), SkyTeam, oneworld. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 26

  25. 1.3 Setting Goals and Developing Plans • Elements of Planning • Goals (Objectives) • Desired outcomes for individuals, organizations • Provide direction and evaluation performance criteria • Plans • Documents that outline how goals are to be accomplished • Describe how resources are to be allocated and establish activity schedules. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 27

  26. Types of Goals • Financial Goals • Are related to the expected internal financial performance of the organization. • Strategic Goals • Are related to the performance of the firm relative to factors in its external environment (e.g., competitors). 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 28

  27. Stated Goals vs. Real Goals • Broadly-worded official statements of the organization (intended for public consumption) that may be irrelevant to its real goals (what actually goes on in the organization). e.g., FBC, 三好一公道,燈塔理念 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 29

  28. Types of Plans • Strategic Plans • Establish the organization’s overall goals. • Seek to position the organization in terms of its environment. • Cover extended periods of time. • Operational Plans • Specify the details of how the overall goals are to be achieved. • Cover short time period. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 30

  29. Types of Plans (cont’d) • Long-Term Plans • Plans with time frames extending beyond three years. • Short-Term Plans • Plans with time frames on one year or less. • Specific Plans • Plans that are clearly defined and leave no room for interpretation. (e.g., CFP) • Directional Plans • Flexible plans that set out general guidelines, provide focus, yet allow discretion in implementation. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 31

  30. Types of Plans (cont’d) • Single-Use Plan • A one-time plan specifically designed to meet the need of a unique situation. • Standing Plans • Ongoing plans that provide guidance for activities performed repeatedly. e.g. Budget. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 32

  31. Traditional Goal Setting • Broad goals are set at the top of the organization. • Goals are then broken into subgoals for each organizational level. • Assumes that top management knows best because they can see the “big picture.” • Goals are intended to direct, guide, and constrain from above. *Means–Ends Chain, 南宮博士給小飛俠的信,bossism, bottleneck 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 33

  32. The Downside of Traditional Goal Setting 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 34

  33. Management By Objectives (MBO) • Specific performance goals are jointly determined by employees and managers. • Progress toward accomplishing goals is periodically reviewed. • Rewards are allocated on the basis of progress towards the goals. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 35

  34. Steps in a Typical MBO Program 1. The organization’s overall objectives and strategies are formulated. 2. Major objectives are allocated among divisional and departmental units. 3. Unit managers collaboratively set specific objectives for their units with their managers. 4. Specific objectives are collaboratively set with all department members. 5. Action plans, defining how objectives are to be achieved, are specified and agreed upon by managers and employees. 6. The action plans are implemented. 7. Progress toward objectives is periodically reviewed, and feedback is provided. 8. Successful achievement of objectives is reinforced by performance-based rewards. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 36

  35. Does MBO Work? * Potential Problems with MBO Programs • Not as effective in dynamic environments that require constant resetting of goals. • Overemphasis on individual accomplishment may create problems with teamwork. • Allowing the MBO program to become an annual paperwork shuffle. * Reason for MBO Success • Top management commitment and involvement. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 37

  36. Characteristics of Well-Designed Goals • 1. Written in terms of outcomes, not actions • 2. Measurable and quantifiable • 3. Clear as to time frame • e.g.,華山論劍,William Lab. • 4. Challenging yet attainable • 5. Written down • 6. Communicated to all necessary organizational members 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 38

  37. 討論:目標設定之原則 1. Smart: Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, Time bound. 2. Kiss: Keep it simple and short. Keep it simple, stupid. *一分鐘經理人,59秒員工 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 39

  38. 要浪漫的願景,也要務實的規劃 1. 推測外界環境需求,分析內部資源及能力 2. 寫下決心追求的目標,宣示、溝通 3. 積極主動訂定計畫,採取行動,消除差異 e.g. Ivery Lee vs. Charles Schwab, Time management 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 40

  39. 台北市交通白皮書 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 41

  40. 錸德科技 規劃1111願景 • 每個員工有1棟房子 • 公司經營績效擠進國內前10大 • 培養100個專業經理 • 2005年時,年營收達1000億元目標 e.g., 0941 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 42

  41. Steps in Goal Setting • Review the organization’s mission statement. • Evaluate available resources. • Determine goals individually or with others. • Write down the goals and communicate them. • Review results and whether goals are being met. *承諾前可討論,承諾後使命必達。 * P.F. Drucker 的三個導師 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 43

  42. Developing Plans • Contingency Factors in a Manager’s Planning • Manager’s level in the organization • Strategic plans at higher levels • Operational plans at lower levels • Degree of environmental uncertainty • Stable environment: specific plans • Dynamic environment: specific but flexible plans 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 44

  43. Approaches to Planning • Establishing a formal planning department • A group of planning specialists who help managers write organizational plans. • Involving organizational members in the process 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 45

  44. 1.4 Contemporary Issues in Planning • Criticisms of Planning:紙上畫畫,牆上掛掛,會上罵罵,全不算話。 • Planning may create rigidity. 計畫趕不上變化!沒有一次成功的戰役是按照計畫進行的。 • Plans cannot be developed for dynamic environments. • Formal plans cannot replace intuition and creativity. • Formal planning reinforces today’s success, which may lead to tomorrow’s failure. (e.g., Icarus, Wang Laboratories) • Just planning isn’t enough. 坐而言不如起而行?Implementing! 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 46

  45. Effective Planning in Dynamic Environments • Develop plans that are specific but flexible. (e.g., 18套劇本,Royal Dutch/Shell, Scenario-based planning) • Understand that planning is an ongoing process. (e.g.,毛治國的生涯規劃,Muddling through with a purpose) • Change plans when conditions warrant. • Persistence in planning eventually pay off. • Flatten the organizational hierarchy to foster the development of planning skills at all organizational levels. 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 47

  46. How Study Management?1. Come to class, 2. Read the material, 3. Do your assignment: 第 5, 6 組作業:上網找資料,討論當前熱門議題。 • 上網找兩個不同產業的公司,找他們的 goals, 評估其是否 “well writing”? • 公司有一個目標是更環境永續 (sustainable),其中有 一步驟是減少紙張浪費。請擬訂計畫。 • 為你自己的 academics, career preparation, family, hobbies 各設定至少兩個短期目標,兩個長期目標,再訂出達成目標之計畫。 • 檢討個人之時間管理。 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 48

  47. 重點回顧 1. SWOT analysis 2.比較 Benchmarking VS. Competitive strategy, advantage Planning VS. Plan Stated VS. Real objectives Strategic VS. Operational plan 49 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 49

  48. Terms to Know • core competencies • SWOT analysis • cost leadership strategy • differentiation strategy • focus strategy • stuck in the middle • goals • plans • management by objectives (MBO) 國立交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 50