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Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases

Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases. Michael Moran , Véronique Bouchet, Wanmin Gong, Paul Makar, Sophie Cousineau, Louis-Philippe Crevier, Ashu Dastoor, Sunling Gong, Sylvain Ménard, and Balbir Pabla Meteorological Service of Canada Toronto, Ontario and Montreal, Quebec.

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Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases

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  1. Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael Moran, Véronique Bouchet, Wanmin Gong, Paul Makar, Sophie Cousineau, Louis-Philippe Crevier, Ashu Dastoor, Sunling Gong, Sylvain Ménard, and Balbir Pabla Meteorological Service of Canada Toronto, Ontario and Montreal, Quebec

  2. Talk Outline • What Is An AURAMS? • Case Studies & AQ Data Sources • Some Operational Evaluation Results • Some Diagnostic Evaluation Results • Some Real-Time Evaluation Results • Summary and Next Steps

  3. AURAMS Is “AUnified Regional Air-quality Modelling System” • Episodic, regional, size-resolved, chemically-characterized PM modelling system • “Unified’ in sense that it considers multiple air pollutants and can be applied to multiple AQ issues (e.g., PM, acid deposition, tropospheric O3) • Consists of 3 main components: • regional emissions processing system; • nonhydrostatic global meteorological model; • “off-line” sectional PM regional air-quality model • Current PM resolution: 12 size bins (0.01-40.96 m) and 9 chemical components (SO4=, NO3-, NH4+, BC, pOC, sOC, CM, SS, H2O)

  4. National Emission Inventories (Cdn, U.S.) Population data Econometric data Land-use data Geophysical data Meteorological observations (OA) Canadian Emissions Processing System (CEPS) point mobile area biogenics GEM (prognostic meteorological model) Regional PM Model (CHRONOS+ADOM+CAM+new) Advection/diffusion (of 29 gaseous and 9x12 aerosol tracers) , emission (including gaseous precursors and size-segregated and chemically-resolved PM), dry deposition of gaseous tracer, coupled gaseous, aqueous-phase, aerosol/heterogeneous chemistry, secondary organic aerosol formation, aerosol microphysics (nucleation, condensation/evaporation, coagulation,CCN activation), size-dependentscavenging/wet deposition, size-dependent dry deposition of aerosols, gravitational settling/sedimentation. PM2.5, PM10 Concentration Fields

  5. Model Characteristics

  6. AURAMS Selected Evaluation Periods

  7. AURAMS Evaluation Period Data Sets

  8. Western & Eastern AURAMS Domains • Western Domain • 148 x 124 x 29 • Δx=21 km • Eastern Domain • 85 x 105 x 29 • Δx=42 km PM2.5 SO4 O3

  9. Ground-Level O3, 1700 EDT, July 14th 1995 Coloured Station Circles Superimposed On Contoured Gridded Model Field, Same Colour Scheme

  10. Hourly O3, All Stations, July 12-15, 1995 Max. Observed: ~185 ppb Max. Predicted: ~150 ppb

  11. 24-Hour PM2.5 Species: July 8-16, 1995 PM2.5 SO4 NAPS Network, g m-3 @STP 1-in-6 NH4 NO3

  12. PM2.5 & O3 Time Series, Feb. 7–14, 1998 PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5 O3

  13. Evaluation of Hourly O3 and PM2.5 Predictions, Feb. 7-14, 1998 Hourly O3 Hourly PM2.5

  14. PM2.5 SO4 NH4 NO3 24-Hour PM2.5 Species: Feb. 7-14, 1998 NAPS Network, g m-3 @STP 1-in-6

  15. Satellite vs. GEM-Modelled Cloud Field Cloud Fraction, 3085 m AGL

  16. Six-Day Precip-Weighted SO4= Conc. In Precip (July 31-Aug. 5, 1988) Modelled Observed

  17. AURAMS Diagnostic Evaluation – Pacific2001

  18. Daily Speciated PM Comparison, Aug. 25-31, 2001 (IMPROVE, CAPMoN, NAPS) PM2.5 SO4 PM2.5 NO3 PMtot SO4 PMtot NH4 Note: Red stations are less than 250 km from Pacific coast . Blue stations > 250 km from Pacific coast. PMtot NO3 PM2.5 EC

  19. Pacific2001 p-SO4 AMS Time-Size Cross Section Similar range and size distribution Short duration peaks in model lower than measurements p-SO4 AMS data courtesy of Hacene Boudries, Aerodyne Particle Size and Speciation

  20. Pacific2001 Lidar Time-Height Cross Section Langley, Aug. 29, 2001 Lidar data courtesy Kevin Strawbridge, MSC AURAMS captures the nighttime layer aloft detected by the lidar

  21. Same-Day Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts (1) • Based on AIRNOW data feed • Summer 2004 for O3 and PM2.5 Obs O - M Model

  22. Same-Day Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts (2)

  23. Summary and Next Steps • AURAMS is an episodic, regional, size-resolved, chemically-characterized PM modelling system that includes a sectional PM CTM • Operational, diagnostic, and real-time performance evaluations have all provided useful insights • Older cases provide point of comparison with other models (e.g., ADOM, RADM) while newer cases provide richer PM and PM precursor data sets for multi-pollutant evaluations • Additional cases (e.g., Eastern Supersite 2001/02 period, ICARTT/NEAQS-2K4 period), longer simulations, more fields (e.g., precip chemistry), more model intercomparisons are being pursued

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