Regional Report on Trade and Human Development in Central Asia Daniel Gay Istanbul, 18 November 2008
Regional Report on Trade and Human Development in Central Asia • Process • Overview • Opportunities for trade • Trade and HD impact assessment • Conclusions and key recommendations
1. process • Country studies were used for specific information and data. • Secondary research conducted. • Trade and HD Guide used simultaneously, while the Guide was being developed. • Cross-country comparisons made.
2. Overview Differences in economic growth…
Human development index… * PPP US$ Sources: UNDP, Human Development Report 1990-2007/2008 (Human Development Indicators).
… investment … trade Incoming FDI, 2004-07 (US$m) Exports, 2003-05 (US$m) Sources: UNCTAD (2007,2008)
… and in doing business. Source: World Bank (2008) • … but across the region: • There are some similarities in the business environment • Trade facilitation is a challenge, particularly transport.
3. Trading opportunities • The large number of regional and bilateral agreements have resulted in a ‘spaghetti bowl’ effect, leading to conflict and confusion. • Multilateralism or greater regional coordination would help alleviate these concerns. • Three sectors were chosen, each with the potential to alleviate poverty and contribute to human development. • Kazakhstan – textiles • Kyrgyzstan – agriculture and agricultural processing • Uzbekistan – textiles
4. Trade and hd impact assessment • There is an uneven, but generally challenging HD situation across the region • MDGs look unlikely uniformly to be reached • Poverty, health, environment and gender problems remain. • Any progress is largely despite the absence of pro-poor government policies; and is largely due to externally-driven economic growth. • Better policy can help increase the contribution of trade to HD and mitigate its ill-effects.
The method in the Guide* was used to analyse some of the possible impacts of WTO accession on trade and HD: • TRADE POLICY CHANGE AND EXPECTED EFFECTS • TRANSMISSION CHANNELS • POST-ASSESSMENT CONSIDERATIONS * Using UNDP Colombo (2008) ‘Human Development Impact Assessment of Trade’, 3 April draft
TRADE POLICY CHANGE AND EXPECTED EFFECTS • Expected positive and negative effects • Who will gain or lose? TRANSMISSION CHANNELS • Fiscal, prices, production • Institutional environment • Data and knowledge constraints POST-ASSESSMENT CONSIDERATIONS • Monitoring and mitigation measures • Policy space
5. Conclusions and recommendations General: • Explicitly target the mainstreaming of trade into the development process. • Promote a broad-based dialogue on trade and human development issues. • Improve data on trade and human development.
Trade-related • Conduct a systematic study of the ways in which the effects of WTO accession might be channelled • Harmonise existing regional trade agreements/ examine possibilities for multilateral liberalisation.
Human development • Continue to work towards the MDGs • Adopt a regional approach to health and education • Continue to share lessons on gender • Specifically address labour mobility • Diversify into areas that improve HD • Address labour market issues
Regional organisations • Coordinate trade facilitation measures • Help regional integration of trade liberalisation • Improve the delivery and coordination of road and rail transport infrastructure projects
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